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NKE

Nike, Inc.Close $44.19EOD only

Max Pain

$44.00

Next expiry May 22, 2026

Expected Move

±$1.28

2.9% from close

Price Gap

-0.19

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Middle-high premium

P/C OI

0.70

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

4/4

Partial coverage

Published snapshot: May 20, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects NKE options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 20, 2026 close

NKE Directional Report

Analysis based on market close March 31, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Consensus-supported lens with chain history and key metrics in the rail.

Outlook

Neutral with a bullish drift anchored at $53 max pain across near-term expiries. Confidence: 8/10. The strong pinning force is offset by high negative GEX and massive net put premium, creating a volatile equilibrium.

Confidence:

8 / 10

base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 spot 0.3% from MP. No override: high IV and negative GEX are accounted for in the trending regime.

Supports: Spot pinned at $53 across three expiries, rising MP trend to $60+, massive DEX long (+41.7M shares) suggests dealer support on dips.
Conflicts: Net premium -$164.7M (bearish), GEX -$7.3M (trending/volatile), IV extremely elevated at 55.8%.

📌Triple pin at $53 for 3/27, 4/2, 4/10

⚠️GEX -$7.3M warns of potential for sharp moves

📈MP ladder rises to $60+ by mid-year

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

IV 55.8% is extremely high — premium selling has significant edge, but GEX negative warns of trending moves.

Gamma Regime

Trending

GEX -$7.3M indicates dealers are net long gamma, which can amplify spot moves — a trending/volatile regime.

Flow Regime

Mixed

Flow is Mixed: net premium -$164.7M is heavily bearish, but P/C ratios are neutral (1.00 vol, 0.81 OI).

Spot vs Max Pain

Spot at $52.82 is effectively At max pain ($53) — strong pinning force for the next 10 days.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — Pin holds across three weekly expiries (through 4/10), but rising max pain ladder and stable GEX sign point to a bullish drift over 2-4 weeks. The 4/17 MP jumps to $58.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$44.49$61.15

Pin dominates; break below $50 or above $55 signals trend acceleration.

Next 1 week

$44.68$60.95

Pin release after 4/10, MP rises to $58 for 4/17 expiry.

Next 2 weeks

$44.46$61.18

MP ladder and structural call OI at $60 provide upside target; downside guarded by massive DEX.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $53 (2026-03-27); $53 (2026-04-02); $53 (2026-04-10)

EM guardrails: 2d $44.49/$61.15; 1w $44.68/$60.95

Support:

Resistance: $75.00 · $77.50 · $80.00

Structural: **Call OI walls at $75, $77.50, $80** are distant caps. **Put OI concentrations at $55, $57.50, $60** are near-term supports. The $60 level is pivotal with high OI on both sides.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $-7.3M

DEX: +41.7M shares

Gamma flip: N/A

NTM gamma: Gamma flip N/A due to strike granularity. With GEX negative, dealer hedging amplifies moves: a rally forces call buying (accelerates up), a sell-off forces put selling (may cushion falls).

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV 55.8% is extremely elevated — selling premium is attractive, but beware of the trending GEX regime.

Term structure: **Steeply inverted**: 2-day IV 102% crashes to 55.9% by 4/10 and 38.5% by 5/1. Massive kink at 4/2 expiry.

Skew: **Calendar spread edge**: Sell high IV in front week (4/2, 102%), buy lower IV in back month (e.g., 5/1, 38.5%).

Flow Analysis

Net premium: -$164.7M bearish; P/C vol 1.00, P/C OI 0.81.

Directional prints: $48C 4/2 vol 6,196 vs OI 133 (46x) — could be bullish call buying or bearish call selling for premium; $50C 5/15 vol 9,756 vs OI 386 (25x) — likely longer-dated call buying given low OI. The massive net put premium at strikes $60-$70 suggests institutional put selling (bullish) or put buying (bearish); given high IV and DEX long, **put selling is more consistent**.

Unusual: $45C 4/2 vol 8,873 (44x OI) at 'only' 39.6% IV — standout for size and relatively low vol vs other front-week strikes.

Risks & Catalysts

!**Gamma regime risk**: Negative GEX can fuel a sharp, trending move in either direction, breaking the pin.

!**IV crush risk**: 102% IV in front week will evaporate post-4/2, punishing long premium holders.

!**Macro/ sector drag**: NKE is a consumer discretionary bellwether; broad market weakness could override pin.

!**Earnings catalyst**: Next EPS est. 6/25; volatility may remain elevated into summer.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Long stock	Moderate	Buy shares at $52.82. Use dips below $50 to average.	Negative GEX can cause extended drawdowns.
Short stock	Weak	Avoid. DEX long +41.7M shares provides strong dip-buying support.	Dealer support and rising MP target.
Covered call	Moderate-Strong	Own shares, sell $57.5C 4/17 (~$1.00 est.) against.	Capped upside if bullish drift accelerates.
Cash-secured put / put spread	Moderate-Strong	Sell $50/$45 put spread 4/17 (credit ~$1.25).	Break below $50 triggers max loss.
Long calls	Moderate-Weak	Avoid front-week (IV 102%). Consider $55C 5/1 for bullish drift.	IV crush and time decay in high-vol environment.
Long puts / bear put spreads	Weak	Avoid. Flow suggests put selling, not buying.	Pinning and dealer support.
Iron condor	Moderate	$50P/$47.5P x $57.5C/$60C 4/17 (credit ~$0.80).	GEX negative (trending) — range may break. VIX context not applicable to single stock.
Calendar/diagonal	Moderate	Reverse calendar: Sell $53C 4/2 (IV 102%), buy $55C 5/1 (IV 38.5%).	Spot moves sharply away from $53, hurting short leg.
PMCC / LEAPS diagonal	Moderate-Strong	Buy $45C Jan 2027 (~$12.50), sell $57.5C 4/17 against.	Capital intensive; long-dated IV still elevated (~39%).

Top Plays

Reverse Calendar Spread

Sell $53 Call 4/2, Buy $55 Call 5/1

Capitalizes on the extreme IV differential (102% vs 38.5%) while positioning for the multi-week bullish drift to $55-$60. The short leg benefits from pin at $53 and imminent IV crush.

Debit: $0.45-$0.60

Max loss: $0.60

BE: Complex; ideal: spot near $53 at 4/2 expiry, then rallies.

Mgmt: Close short leg before 4/2 expiry if spot >$54. Roll short leg if pin holds. Target 50% profit on net debit.

Traders comfortable with negative gamma positioning, seeking to harvest front-week volatility.

Bull Put Spread

Sell $50 Put / Buy $45 Put, 4/17 expiry

Defined-risk expression of the bullish pin and dealer support (DEX long). Sells elevated IV (49.5% ATM) with a buffer down to the 2-day EM low ($44.49). Aligns with likely institutional put selling flow.

Credit: $1.15-$1.30

Max loss: $3.85

BE: $48.85

Mgmt: Take profit at 60-70% of max credit. Exit if spot closes below $49.50.

Defined-risk premium sellers looking for a high-probability, high-IV trade.

LEAPS Diagonal (PMCC)

Buy $45 Call Jan 2027, Sell $57.5 Call 4/17

The 30+ DTE long leg captures the structural bullish MP drift to $60+ with reduced theta decay. The short call generates income against the pin/range, and the strike aligns with near-term resistance. Better than a near-term long call as it mitigates IV crush and provides multiple cycles of premium collection.

Debit: $11.50-$12.00

Max loss: $12.00

BE: $57.00

Mgmt: Roll short calls up and out monthly, targeting strikes near MP. Close entire position if MP trend breaks (spot <$50).

Investors with larger capital, bullish multi-month view, seeking to reduce cost basis.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFSpot dips to $50.50 and holds for 1 hour → Enter bull put spread: Sell $50/$45 put spread 4/17.

IFIV on 4/2 $53 Call remains >90% with spot at $52.50-$53.50 → Enter reverse calendar: Sell $53C 4/2, Buy $55C 5/1.

Exit Triggers

EXIT4/2 $53 Call price decays to <$0.10 → Close entire reverse calendar spread for profit.

EXITSpot reaches $60 → Take profits on all bullish spreads; evaluate covered calls at $62.5.

Tactical Summary

Primary thesis: Pinned at $53 near-term with a bullish drift to $60 over weeks, fueled by rising max pain and dealer long delta, but volatile due to negative GEX. Invalidation: Close below $49.50. The regime favors selling high front-week IV (calendars) and defined-risk bullish spreads (put spreads). Top plays: 1) Reverse calendar for vol arb, 2) Bull put spread for premium, 3) LEAPS diagonal for longer-term drift.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on March 31, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.