base 5; -1 GEX/flow contradict; +1 GEX positive (pinning); +0.5 spot 1.1% from MP; +0.5 VIX 18
Term structure: Steep front-month skew; 0DTE call IV 78%. Contango from 0 to 6 DTE, then volatile.
Spot vs MP: Above
GEX regime: Pinning ($+122.5M)
Gamma flip: ~$65.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 58,622 (11.9% below spot)
OI concentrations: Put wall at $65 (11.9% below spot); call wall $90-$110.
#1Call credit spread
Sell 2026-07-17 $80.00/$85.00 call spread
Sell $80/$85 call spread to collect premium from elevated IV.
Mgmt: Close at 50% max gain or if spot breaches $77.52.
#2Put credit spread
Sell 2026-07-17 $70.00/$65.00 put spread
Sell $70/$65 put spread to profit from support holding.
Mgmt: Close at 50% max gain or if spot breaks $73.
#3Iron condor
Sell 2026-07-17 $70.00/$65.00 put wing and $80.00/$85.00 call wing
Sell $70/$65 put and $80/$85 call wings.
Mgmt: Close if spot approaches wings; target 50% max gain.
!Gamma flip at $65 if spot breaks $73; downside acceleration risk.
!High near-term call skew may indicate event risk; monitor news.