thetaOwl
HomeOptionsNFLXReports

NFLX

Netflix, Inc.Close $75.31EOD only
Max Pain
$77.00
Next expiry Sep 18, 2026
Expected Move
±$1.07
1.4% from close
Price Gap
+1.69
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
42
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
0.89
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
6.5/10
Neutral tilt
Published snapshot: Sep 17, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects NFLX options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Sep 17, 2026 close
NFLX Theta Report
Analysis based on market close June 18, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from June 18, 2026. A newer theta report is available for June 29, 2026.

View latest report

Theta Verdict

Attractiveness7 / 10
Sizing: Moderate
Primary: Short strangles
Invalidation: Spot break below $73 support or above $82 resistance
Confidence:
7 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; -1 spot 5.6% from MP; +1 VIX 16

IV Environment

IV Regime
High
IV vs VIX
IV (68.8%) significantly above VIX (16.4) indicating rich premiums
Favorable?
Yes

Term structure: Term structure rises from 27.5% (8 DTE) to 44% (29 DTE) then stabilizes ~42-43%, implying near-term event risk

📊IV vs VIX: 68.8% vs 16.4% - rich premiums but caution on vol expansion
⚠️GEX -$95.5M (short gamma) amplifies trend, increases hedging flow risk

Pin Risk Assessment

Spot vs MP: Below

GEX regime: Trending ($-95.5M)

Gamma flip: ~$75.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 72,669 (3.1% below spot)

OI concentrations: Max pain pins: $82 (Jun 18), $80 (Jun 26 & Jul 2). Heavy put OI at $75 (72.7K). Call wall $90-$105

Verdict: Elevated pin risk: spot $77.5 below multiple $80 pins; rise to $80 likely pins Jun 26 & Jul 2

Premium Opportunities

#1
Short strangle
Sell 2026-07-10 $70.00 put + sell $85.00 call
Sell 70P/85C, capture elevated IV premium with defined range.
Credit: $0.65-$0.80
Max loss: Unlimited
BE: 69.20 / 85.80
Mgmt: Close at 50% max gain or adjust if spot nears strikes.

Risk Alerts

!High IV (68.8%) vs VIX (16.4) signals rich premiums but risk of vol compression
!Short gamma dealer position (-$95.5M) boosts vulnerability to sharp moves
!Spot 5.6% below max pain ($82) suggests potential mean reversion to pin
How to Use These Reports
This theta reflects the market close on June 18, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.