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NFLX

Netflix, Inc.Close $68.95EOD only
Max Pain
$74.00
Next expiry Jul 24, 2026
Expected Move
±$2.79
4.0% from close
Price Gap
+5.05
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
50
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
0.74
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
6.5/10
Neutral tilt
Published snapshot: Jul 17, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects NFLX options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jul 17, 2026 close
NFLX Theta Report
Analysis based on market close June 4, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from June 4, 2026. A newer theta report is available for June 29, 2026.

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Theta Verdict

Attractiveness7 / 10
Sizing: Moderate
Primary: Iron condor
Invalidation: Break above $86 or below $75
Confidence:
8 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 VIX 15

IV Environment

IV Regime
High
IV vs VIX
Avg IV 53% vs VIX 15.4, implies ~3.4x VIX, elevated skew.
Favorable?
No

Term structure: Front-month low, then spike at 14d (put IV 160) suggests event risk; long-dated elevated.

⚠️High put IV at 14d suggests event hedging; avoid naked short premium.
📊GEX -$43.8M implies dealer short gamma, amplifies moves.

Pin Risk Assessment

Spot vs MP: Below

GEX regime: Trending ($-43.8M)

Gamma flip: ~$75.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 66,095 (8.0% below spot)

OI concentrations: Put floor $73-$75 OI 66k; Call wall $90-$120 OI heavy. Max pain shifts $84→$86→$91 over next 2 weeks.

Verdict: Stock near $78.50, below MP $84. Pin risk elevated if spot holds below MP; OI suggests potential pin at $84 if bounce.

Premium Opportunities

#1
Put diagonal
Sell 2026-07-17 $75.00 put / buy 2026-08-21 $80.00 put
Sell 7/17 75p, buy 8/21 80p; net credit, limited risk, benefits from vol normalization.
Debit: $2.69-$3.28
Max loss: $3.28
BE: Path-dependent
Mgmt: Exit if stock hits $75 or vol collapses; roll if needed.
#2
Call calendar
Sell 2026-07-17 $90.00 call / buy 2026-09-18 $90.00 call
Sell 7/17 90c, buy 9/18 90c; low risk of early assignment due to deep OTM short call.
Debit: $1.79-$2.18
Max loss: $2.18
BE: Path-dependent
Mgmt: Hold through earnings; monitor IV; close if spread widens.

Risk Alerts

!High IV skew with extreme put IV on 6/18 expiry suggests binary event risk.
!Dealer short gamma amplifies intraday swings; avoid large positions near gamma flip $75.
How to Use These Reports
This theta reflects the market close on June 4, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.