base 5; +2 extremely high IV; +1 pinning regime; +0.5 strong bullish flow; -1 large expected moves
Term structure: Humped at 29 DTE (~70.1%), relatively flat beyond. Suggests selling 30-45 DTE premium.
Spot vs MP: Spot $366.24 is 3.0% BELOW max pain of $378. Moderate upward magnetic pull.
GEX regime: Pinning (GEX +$10.5M) — dealers hedge to suppress volatility, supporting range-bound action.
Gamma flip: ~$300.00 — Gamma flip ~$300. Below this, positive GEX would flip sign? Data shows +GEX, but $300 is major put support.
OI concentrations: Major Call Wall: $400 (34K OI). Major Put Walls: $300 (17.6K OI), $350 (14.7K OI), $390 (15.9K OI).
#1put credit spread
Sell $350/$345 Put Spread exp 2026-04-24 (22 DTE)
Targets the high-OI $350 put wall (14.7K OI) for support. 22 DTE captures high IV (68.3%) while avoiding the front-week earnings-like vol. Positive GEX and spot below max pain support a bounce or consolidation above this level. Defined risk in a pinning regime.
Mgmt: Close at 65% max profit. Exit if price closes below $345. Do not hold into earnings (next is 6/24).
#2iron condor
Sell $350/$345 Put Spread & $390/$395 Call Spread exp 2026-05-01 (29 DTE)
Wide, high-IV range play anchored by major OI levels. Short put at $350 support, short call below the $400 call wall and near the $390 put OI cluster. 29 DTE IV is peak at 70.1%. Positive GEX environment favors this non-directional setup.
Mgmt: Close at 50% max profit. Manage legs independently: roll tested side out in time. Exit entire position if price breaches either short strike.
#3cash-secured put
Sell $300 Put exp 2026-06-18 (77 DTE)
For capital-secure sellers comfortable with assignment. Targets the largest OI put wall ($300, 17.6K OI), which is also the estimated gamma flip. IV ~68.6% offers enormous premium, providing an 18% buffer below current price. Aligns with ultimate long-term support.
Mgmt: Roll down/out at 21 DTE if challenged. Be prepared to take assignment at $300 if necessary. Close at 70% profit if reached early.
#4call credit spread
Sell $400/$405 Call Spread exp 2026-04-17 (15 DTE)
Directly targets the massive $400 call wall (34.5K OI), which aligns with near-term max pain and provides a strong ceiling. IV is rich (68.1%). Positive GEX may suppress upward volatility, supporting this as a hedge or standalone credit play.
Mgmt: Close at 50% max profit. Exit if price closes above $400. This is a weekly, defined-risk play.
!Gamma Regime Shift: GEX is now POSITIVE (+$10.5M). This is a major change from the prior negative regime. It supports pinning, but a break below $300 could see accelerated selling as it's a key level.
!Spot vs. Max Pain: Price is 3% below max pain ($378). The upward magnetic pull is present but weaker than before. Monitor for a grind higher toward $378.
!Extreme Expected Moves: 15-day expected move is ±11.0% ($326-$406). Position size accordingly—high IV means wide ranges.
!Unusual Put Activity: High volume in 4/10 puts at $205-$215 (IV 120-135%). This is likely far OTM hedging but indicates institutional tail-risk protection.
!Earnings Date: Next earnings estimated 2026-06-24. This is outside of recommended trade horizons for 30-45 DTE plays, but is a reminder to avoid selling naked options or holding short premium too close to the event.
!Bullish Flow: Net premium +$227.4M with P/C ratio 0.79 indicates strong bullish positioning. This supports put selling but adds fuel to potential rallies that could test call spreads.