base 5; +2 extremely high IV; +1 trending regime; +0.5 strong bullish flow; -0.5 large expected moves
Term structure: Steeply inverted: 82.1% for 2 DTE, decaying to ~70% for 30+ DTE. Suggests selling shorter-dated premium.
Spot vs MP: Spot $337.84 is 10.5% BELOW max pain of $378. Strong upward magnetic pull.
GEX regime: Trending (GEX -$7.4M) — dealers amplify moves, increasing directional risk.
Gamma flip: ~$300.00 — Gamma flip ~$300. Below this, negative GEX accelerates downtrends. Key risk level.
OI concentrations: Major Call Wall: $400 (34K OI). Major Put Walls: $300 (17K OI), $200 (17K OI).
#1put credit spread
Sell $330/$325 Put Spread exp 2026-04-10 (10 DTE)
High IV (71.1%) on short-dated puts. Strike is below current price and above the massive $300 put wall. Bullish flow (P/C 0.61) and spot below max pain support a bounce. Defined risk in a trending regime.
Mgmt: Close at 65% max profit. Exit if price closes below $325. Do not hold through earnings (next is 6/24).
#2call credit spread
Sell $400/$405 Call Spread exp 2026-04-17 (17 DTE)
Targets the massive $400 call wall (34K OI), which aligns with near-term max pain levels ($347-$380). IV is rich (72.3%). Provides a high-probability ceiling against a rally, especially with negative GEX potentially limiting upside momentum.
Mgmt: Close at 50% max profit. Exit if price closes above $400. Roll up and out if tested, but avoid holding into earnings.
#3iron condor
Sell $320/$315 Put Spread & $380/$385 Call Spread exp 2026-04-24 (24 DTE)
Wide, high-IV range play. Short strikes are outside the 10-day expected move ($296-$380). Puts are above the key $300 support, calls are below the $400 call wall. Collects high premium from both sides due to elevated IV.
Mgmt: Close at 50% max profit. Manage legs independently: roll tested side out in time. Exit entire position if price breaches either short strike.
#4cash-secured put
Sell $300 Put exp 2026-05-15 (45 DTE)
For capital-secure sellers comfortable with assignment. Targets the largest OI put wall ($300, 17K OI), which is also the estimated gamma flip. IV ~71% offers enormous premium, providing a 10% buffer below current price. Aligns with long-term support.
Mgmt: Roll down/out at 21 DTE if challenged. Be prepared to take assignment at $300 if necessary. Close at 70% profit if reached early.
!Gamma Regime: Negative GEX (-$7.4M) means dealers amplify price moves. This is a TRENDING, not pinning, environment. Increases risk of short strikes being breached.
!Spot vs. Max Pain: Price is 10.5% below max pain ($378). Strong upward magnetic pull exists, but negative GEX may resist it. Creates volatile, directional pressure.
!Critical Gamma Flip: ~$300. A close below this level could trigger accelerated selling due to dealer hedging. This is the ultimate stop-loss level for all put-selling strategies.
!Extreme Expected Moves: 10-day expected move is ±12.3% ($296-$379). Position size accordingly—these are not low-volatility, range-bound setups.
!Earnings Date: Next earnings estimated 2026-06-24. This is outside of recommended trade horizons but is a reminder to avoid selling naked options or holding short premium too close to the event.
!Unusual Put Activity: High volume in 4/02 puts at $360-$372.50. Suggests near-term bearish hedging or speculation. Reinforces need for defined risk on put sales.