Earnings Verdict
Earnings expected around 6/24 (TBD). IV elevated (80.6% for 4/10), crush play viable given term structure kink. Strong bullish flow and pinning GEX (+$24.0M) support selling premium or directional upside bets.
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -0.5 spot 4.9% from MP
Most important: IV term structure kink at 4/10 (80.6% vs 73.9% for 4/17) confirms earnings timing; historical beat rate 100% with average move exceeding EM.
📅Earnings date TBD (est. 6/24), but IV kink at 4/10 suggests near-term event.
📈Historical EPS beat rate 100% with surprises up to +33%, bullish bias.
Regime Classification
Vol Regime
High (IV 78.5%)
Gamma Regime
Pinning (GEX +$24.0M)
Flow Regime
Bullish (net prem +$225.5M, P/C vol 0.51)
Spot vs MP
Above (spot $377.76 vs max pain $360)
Gamma flip: ~$300.00 — Below $300, dealers amplify moves due to put OI concentration.
Earnings Overview
Next earnings: 2026-06-24explicit
Expected moves:
- 4/10 (4d): ±$25.42 (6.7%)
- 4/17 (11d): ±$38.65 (10.2%)
- 4/24 (18d): ±$47.73 (12.6%)
IV Setup
Term structure: Sharp kink at 4/10 (80.6% vs 73.9% for 4/17), elevated into near-term expiration.
Crush estimate: ~7 vol pts post-earnings, back to ~73%
Skew: Puts slightly richer than calls (P/C OI 1.20), but flow heavily bullish.
Historical Context
Beat rate: 100% (4/4 quarters)
Avg move vs expected: Actual move data not provided, but surprise range +6% to +33% suggests potential for outsized moves.
Directional bias: All recent quarters beat EPS estimates, indicating bullish momentum.
Key Levels
1$360.00 (max pain, GEX pin)
2$400.00 (call OI wall, GEX +$3.4M)
3$415.00 (call OI cluster, GEX +$3.6M)
4$450.00 (call OI wall, GEX +$1.4M)
5$350.00 (put OI cluster)
6$340.00 (put OI cluster)
Flow Highlights
Heavy $400C buying across expirations (net prem +$79.1M, OI 35,037)
Large institutional upside bets, likely earnings positioning.
Unusual $380C 4/10 activity (Vol 21,050 vs OI 2,565, 8.2x)
Short-term bullish flow targeting immediate move.
Strategies
Iron condor
Sell $350P/$340P x $415C/$425C 4/24
Trigger: Enter 1 week before earnings if IV >75%
Elevated IV (71.1% for 4/24) and pinning GEX support premium decay; strikes calibrated to EM guardrails and key OI levels.
Outperforms: Stock stays within $340-$415 range (within EM bounds)
Underperforms: Gap exceeds EM by >50% or breaches strikes
Bull call spread
Buy $380C / Sell $400C 4/24
Trigger: Enter on any dip below $375
Bullish flow (net prem +$225.5M), historical beat rate, and call OI wall at $400 provide upside target; cost defined.
Outperforms: Stock rises to $400+ post-earnings
Underperforms: Stock stays flat or drops below $380
Long straddle
Buy $380 straddle 4/10
Trigger: Enter day before earnings if IV hasn't spiked >85%
High IV (80.6%) and historical surprise potential justify directional agnostic bet; breakevens aligned with EM.
Outperforms: Actual move exceeds EM (6.7%) by >30%
Underperforms: Stock pins near $380, IV crushes post-earnings
Risk Assessment
!Gap risk: 6.7% EM for 4/10, but historical beats suggest potential for larger move.
!IV crush of ~7 vol points could erode long premium positions if move is muted.
!Liquidity is sufficient (2.2M OI, 455K volume), but watch for wide spreads on OTM strikes.
!Sizing: Keep positions small (<5% of portfolio) due to elevated volatility and binary event risk.
What to Watch
?IV trajectory into earnings (watch 4/10 vs 4/17 spread)
?Unusual OTM put activity near $300
?Flow into $400C and $415C for directional cues