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MU

Micron Technology, Inc.Close $731.99EOD only
Max Pain
$695.00
Next expiry May 22, 2026
Expected Move
±$50.38
6.9% from close
Price Gap
-36.99
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
57
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
1.30
Slightly put-heavy
Consensus
8.0/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: May 20, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects MU options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 20, 2026 close
MU Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close April 2, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from April 2, 2026. A newer earnings report is available for May 20, 2026.

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Earnings Verdict

Earnings expected around June 24, but the market is pricing a major catalyst into the April 10 expiration (8 days out), with IV at 65.7% vs ~68% in later months. The elevated IV and sharp term structure kink present a classic IV crush setup. Best strategy is selling premium via a strangle, supported by bullish flow and a history of positive EPS surprises. Key risk is a gap beyond the 7.8% expected move, amplified by the pinning gamma regime.

Confidence:
7.5 / 10
base 5; +1 high IV (75%); +1 clear term structure kink at 4/10; +0.5 strong historical beat rate; -0.5 elevated VIX context
Most important: IV term structure shows a definitive kink at the April 10 expiration (65.7% vs 68%+), confirming the market's focus on a near-term catalyst. This is the earnings proxy trade.
📅Official earnings is ~84 days away (June 24). The April 10 expiry acts as the major event proxy with a clear IV kink. Trade the front-month catalyst.
⚡Delta from prior report: Spot has rallied 8.4% to $366.24, moving closer to max pain. Gamma regime flipped from Trending (-$7.4M) to Pinning (+$10.5M), suggesting more contained, mean-reverting price action around the event.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High (IV 75%)
Gamma Regime
Pinning (GEX +$10.5M — mean-reverting)
Flow Regime
Bullish (net prem +$227.4M, P/C 0.79)
Spot vs MP
Below max pain by 3.0% (spot $366.24 vs MP $378)
Gamma flip: ~$300.00 — Below $300, negative GEX could accelerate selling pressure.

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-06-24explicit

Expected moves:

  • 4/10 (8d): ±$28.40 (7.8%) [$337.84 - $394.64]

IV Setup

Term structure: Sharp kink at 4/10 (65.7% IV) vs 68.1% for 4/17. Steep upward slope after the event date.

Crush estimate: ~5-7 vol points, back to ~60%

Skew: Flow heavily bullish (P/C 0.79). Unusual activity shows massive OTM put buying in April 10 expiry ($205-$215), likely hedging or speculative downside bets.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 100% (4/4 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: No explicit historical move data provided. Strong EPS beat history.

Directional bias: Consistent positive EPS surprises.

Key Levels

1$300 gamma flip / major PUT OI
2$377.5 max pain (nearest valid)
3EM: $337.5 - $395 (4/10)
4$350 PUT OI wall (14,749)
5$400 CALL OI wall (34,481)

Flow Highlights

Massive bullish premium flow at $400 (+$28.2M net), $250 (+$24.2M net), and $350 (+$17.7M net).

Institutions are heavily buying calls/selling puts, positioning for significant upside.

Unusual Volume in 4/10 OTM puts ($205P, $210P, $215P) at 22-46x OI with IV 120-135%.

Extreme speculation or hedging for a major downside move, creating expensive put skew to sell against.

Strategies

Strangle Sale (IV Crush)
Sell $337.5 PUT / $395 CALL Strangle (4/10)
Credit: $10.00-$12.00
Max loss: Unlimited
Max gain: $11.00
BE: $326.50 / $406.00
Trigger: Enter 2-3 days before April 10 expiration.
Exploit the IV kink at 4/10. Historical beats and bullish flow support a contained or upward move. Wide strikes provide a 15.7% breakeven range.
Outperforms: Stock stays within the 7.8% EM. IV crushes as expected post-catalyst.
Underperforms: Gap exceeds EM by >30%. Pinning gamma regime could break under heavy selling pressure.
Bull Call Spread (Directional Upside)
Buy $370 CALL / Sell $400 CALL (4/10)
Max loss: $30.00
Max gain: Unlimited
BE: $373.00
Trigger: Enter on any pullback towards $360.
Aligns with strong bullish flow and call OI concentration at $400. Defined risk in a high IV environment. Targets a move to the edge of the expected move.
Outperforms: Stock rallies into or post-catalyst, targeting the $400 OI wall.
Underperforms: Stock stagnates or falls, suffering from IV crush and theta decay.
Put Ratio Spread (Bearish Hedge / Volatility Sale)
Buy 1x $342.5 PUT / Sell 2x $327.5 PUT (4/10)
Credit: $2.50-$4.00
Max loss: $12.50
Max gain: $2.50
BE: $312.50
Trigger: Enter if IV spikes further into the event.
Capitalizes on the extremely elevated IV in OTM puts (seen in unusual activity). Provides a credit while defining risk. Sells into the panic priced into the $205-$215 puts.
Outperforms: Stock stays above $327.5. Benefits from IV crush and theta decay on the extra short put.
Underperforms: Stock crashes below $312.5, facing accelerated losses.

Risk Assessment

!Gap Risk: High. 7.8% EM is substantial. Pinning (positive) gamma regime is mean-reverting but can break under a large catalyst.
!IV Crush: Significant (~5-7 vol points) expected post the April 10 catalyst. Long premium strategies face steep decay.
!Liquidity: Excellent (2.1M+ OI). Top strikes have deep markets.
!Sizing: Use reduced size due to high implied volatility and event risk. The OTM put skew is extreme, indicating tail risk is priced.

What to Watch

?Price action relative to $377.5 max pain (nearest valid)
?Evolution of the IV kink at April 10 expiry
?Unusual OTM put activity for clues on hedging demand
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on April 2, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.