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MU

Micron Technology, Inc.Close $731.99EOD only
Max Pain
$695.00
Next expiry May 22, 2026
Expected Move
±$50.38
6.9% from close
Price Gap
-36.99
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
57
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
1.30
Slightly put-heavy
Consensus
8.0/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: May 20, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects MU options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 20, 2026 close
MU Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close March 31, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from March 31, 2026. A newer earnings report is available for May 20, 2026.

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Earnings Verdict

Earnings in ~85 days (est. June 24). IV is extremely elevated (78%), but the term structure shows a massive kink at the April 2 expiration, indicating a significant near-term event is priced in. The best strategy is to sell premium into this front-month IV spike, with a directional bias towards the upside given the strong bullish flow.

Confidence:
6.5 / 10
base 5; +1 high IV (78%); +0.5 clear term structure kink; -0.5 trending gamma regime; -0.5 limited historical data
Most important: Front-month (April 2) IV of 82% is 11+ vol points above the 70-71% term structure, signaling a major near-term catalyst. This is the earnings proxy.
⚠️Next official earnings is ~85 days away (June 24). The April 2nd expiry acts as a major event proxy with 82% IV. Trade the front-month catalyst.
📈Flow is overwhelmingly bullish (+$488M net premium). Market positioning favors upside.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High (IV 78%)
Gamma Regime
Trending (GEX $-7.4M — pro-cyclical)
Flow Regime
Bullish (net prem +$488.3M, P/C 0.61)
Spot vs MP
Below max pain by 10.5% (spot $337.84 vs MP $378)
Gamma flip: ~$300.00 — Below $300, negative GEX could accelerate selling pressure.

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-06-24 (85 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 4/02 (2d): ±$32.03 (9.5%)
  • 4/10 (10d): ±$41.58 (12.3%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Extreme kink at 4/02 (82.1% IV) vs 71.1% for 4/10. Steep drop post-4/02.

Crush estimate: ~11-12 vol points post-event, back to ~71%

Skew: Flow heavily bullish (P/C 0.61). Unusual activity shows heavy put selling in front month (e.g., $360P, $370P).

Historical Context

Beat rate: 100% (4/4 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: No explicit historical move data provided. Strong EPS beat history.

Directional bias: Consistent positive EPS surprises.

Key Levels

1$300 gamma flip / major PUT OI
2$377.5 max pain (3/27)
3$347.5 max pain (4/02)
4EM: $305 - $370 (4/02)

Flow Highlights

Massive bullish premium flow at $360 (+$52.7M net) and $350 (+$48.8M net).

Institutions are buying calls/selling puts, positioning for upside.

Unusual Volume in 4/02 puts ($360P, $370P) at 7.9x-8.3x OI with IV 54-59%.

Likely short put sales (premium collection) ahead of the event, a bullish/boundary bet.

Strategies

Front-Month Strangle Sale (IV Crush)
Sell $305 PUT / $370 CALL Strangle (4/02)
Credit: $15.00-$18.00
Max loss: Unlimited
Max gain: $16.50
BE: $288.50 / $386.50
Trigger: Enter now to capture full elevated IV.
Exploit the 11+ vol point premium in the front month. Historical beats and bullish flow support a contained or upward move.
Outperforms: Stock stays within the 9.5% EM. IV crushes as expected.
Underperforms: Gap exceeds EM by >30%. Trending gamma regime could amplify a breakout.
Bullish Put Spread (Defined Risk)
Buy $320 PUT / Sell $300 PUT (4/10)
Credit: $4.50-$5.50
Max loss: $15.50
Max gain: $5.00
BE: $315.50
Trigger: Enter on any dip towards $330.
Aligns with bullish flow and OI support at $300. Defined risk in a high IV environment. Uses 4/10 expiry for slightly lower IV and more time.
Outperforms: Stock stays above $315.5. Benefits from IV crush and positive delta.
Underperforms: Stock breaks below $300 gamma flip, triggering accelerated selling.
Calendar Spread (Play the IV Drop)
Sell $340 CALL (4/02) / Buy $340 CALL (4/10)
Credit: $2.50-$3.50
Max loss: Limited (width of strikes minus credit)
Max gain: $3.00
BE: Complex; optimal if stock ~$340 at 4/02 close with IV crush.
Trigger: Enter 1-2 days before 4/02 expiration.
Pure volatility arbitrage on the steep IV term structure kink. Targets the IV crush in the front week.
Outperforms: Stock pins near $340 on 4/02. Front-month IV collapses faster than back-month.
Underperforms: Large directional move away from $340, especially above, as short front call loses more than long back call gains.

Risk Assessment

!Gap Risk: High. 9.5% EM is large. Trending (negative) gamma regime means dealers amplify moves, increasing gap risk.
!IV Crush: Significant (~11 vol points) expected post-4/02 event. Long premium strategies face steep decay.
!Liquidity: Excellent (2.3M+ OI). Top strikes have deep markets.
!Sizing: Use reduced size due to high implied volatility and pro-cyclical gamma.

What to Watch

?Price action relative to $347.5 (4/02 max pain)
?Unusual put selling volume in April 2nd expiry for clues on pin risk
?VIX term structure for broader market vol context
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on March 31, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.