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MU

Micron Technology, Inc.Close $731.99EOD only

Max Pain

$695.00

Next expiry May 22, 2026

Expected Move

±$50.38

6.9% from close

Price Gap

-36.99

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Middle-high premium

P/C OI

1.30

Slightly put-heavy

Consensus

8.0/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: May 20, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects MU options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 20, 2026 close

MU Directional Report

Analysis based on market close March 31, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

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You are viewing an older report from March 31, 2026. A newer directional report is available for May 20, 2026.

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Outlook

Bearish with a strong gravitational pull toward $300-$350 support levels. Confidence: 3/10 — base score stands. The regime is internally contradictory: bullish flow and net premium conflict with negative GEX, a spot far below near-term max pain, and a massive put floor.

Confidence:

3 / 10

base 5; -1 GEX/flow contradict; -1 spot 10.5% from MP; +0 no override factors.

Supports: Net premium +$488M (bullish), P/C vol 0.61 (call dominance), DEX +66M shares (long delta).
Conflicts: GEX -$7.4M (trending), spot 10.5% below 2-day max pain ($378), massive put OI at $300/$200/$40.

⚠️Spot $338 vs MP $378 — extreme dislocation

💰Net premium +$488M — institutional call buying

🧱$300 PUT OI wall of 17,355 — critical support

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

IV 78.2% — extremely high, favoring premium sellers if direction is known.

Gamma Regime

Trending

GEX -$7.4M — trending regime; dealer hedging amplifies spot moves.

Flow Regime

Bullish

Net prem +$488M, P/C vol 0.61 — clear institutional call buying.

Spot vs Max Pain

Below

Spot $338 vs MP $378 — 10.5% below; strong pinning force upward absent.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — Max pain ladder shows a persistent $350-$380 range across April/May expiries, and the $300 put wall is a structural feature. GEX sign and flow regime are consistent across expirations.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$305.81$369.87

Negative GEX and spot far below MP favor downside; break below $305 targets $300.

Next 1 week

$296.26$379.41

EM bounds wide; flow may provide bounce, but $300 put wall is magnet.

Next 2 weeks

$287.49$388.19

Structural put floor at $300 likely contains; upside capped by call walls.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $378 (2026-03-27); $348 (2026-04-02); $358 (2026-04-10)

EM guardrails: 2d $305.81/$369.87; 1w $296.26/$379.41

Support: $300.00 · $200.00 · $40.00

Resistance: $400.00 · $415.00 · $450.00

Gamma flip: ~$300.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 17,355

Structural: Call OI walls at $400/$415/$450 cap rallies. Massive put floors at $300 (17,355 OI), $200 (17,208 OI), and $40 (14,920 OI) represent long-term hedging or legacy positions.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $-7.4M

DEX: +66.3M shares

Gamma flip: ~$300 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 17,355)

NTM gamma: Gamma flip ~$300; below this, negative gamma accelerates selling. Above, gamma is negative but less impactful.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV 78.2% — extreme, no VIX comparison provided. Implies high fear/uncertainty; selling premium has edge if direction is contained.

Term structure: Steeply inverted: 2-day IV 82.1% > 10-day 71.1%. Massive near-term event risk priced in, decaying sharply after April 2.

Skew: ~11 vol-pt differential between 4/2 and 4/10 expiries — strong edge for calendar spreads selling the front week.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: +$488.3M overwhelmingly bullish; P/C vol 0.61, P/C OI 1.15.

Directional prints: $360C net +$52.7M premium (likely bought calls for upside). High-volume puts at $360-$372.5 (4/2) with vol >> OI — could be protective put buying or speculative sells; the bullish net premium context favors the latter interpretation (selling puts for income).

Unusual: $422.5C 4/10 vol 769 vs OI 103 (7.5x) at IV 66.8% — OTM call sweep betting on a sharp rebound.

Risks & Catalysts

!Gamma flip at ~$300 — break below accelerates selling via dealer hedging.

!April 2 expiry (2-day) with 82% IV — imminent vol crush risk for long premium positions.

!Extreme IV (78%) — any stabilization leads to sharp volatility decay, hurting long vol.

!Structural put floors ($300, $200) — may represent large institutional hedges; a break could trigger cascading delta adjustments.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Long stock	Weak	Not recommended. Negative GEX and spot below MP create headwinds.	Accelerated selling below $300.
Short stock	Moderate	Consider on break below $305 (2d EM low).	+$488M net premium bullish flow provides potent counter-trend fuel.
Covered call	Moderate-Strong	Own shares, sell 4/17 $360 Call (~$12-15 credit).	Shares called away if bullish flow prevails.
Cash-secured put / put spread	Moderate-Strong	Sell 4/17 $300 Put (~$25-30 credit) or $300/$290 put spread.	Break below massive $300 OI wall.
Long calls	Moderate-Weak	Buy 4/17 $350 Call — only if believing bullish flow overcomes GEX.	Vol crush and negative gamma trend.
Long puts / bear put spread	Moderate-Strong	Buy 4/17 $330 Put, or $330/$310 bear put spread.	Bullish flow and net premium create fierce squeezes.
Iron condor	Weak	Not recommended. GEX negative, IV > 28.	Trending regime breaks wings.
Calendar/diagonal	Moderate	Sell 4/2 $360 Put (IV 82%), buy 4/10 $360 Put (IV 71%) — reverse put calendar.	Directional move through short strike.
PMCC / LEAPS diagonal	Moderate	Buy 2027 $300 Call, sell 4/17 $360 Call against it.	Capital intensive; near-term bearish pressure.

Top Plays

Reverse Put Calendar

Sell 4/2 $360 Put, Buy 4/10 $360 Put

Capitalizes on the steep 11 vol-pt inversion, selling expensive front-week vol and buying cheaper back-week. Profits from vol crush and time decay in the short leg, with long leg protecting against a drop to $360.

Credit: $4.50-$6.00

Max loss: Defined (difference in strikes minus credit)

BE: Model-based; depends on vol change.

Mgmt: Close for 50% profit after 4/2 expiry vol crush; exit if spot moves >$20 from $360.

Traders comfortable with negative gamma regime, seeking to harvest extreme near-term IV.

Bear Put Spread (30+ DTE)

Buy 5/15 $330 Put, Sell 5/15 $310 Put

Defined-risk bearish bet aligning with negative GEX and spot below MP. The 45 DTE provides time for the multi-week bearish thesis to play out toward the $300 support, while avoiding the extreme IV of front-week expiries. Better than a weekly put because it avoids the imminent vol crush of April 2.

Debit: $9.00-$11.00

Max loss: $10.00

BE: $321.00

Mgmt: Take profit at 50% max gain; stop if spot closes above $350.

Traders with a bearish multi-week view, wanting defined risk.

Cash-Secured Put at Key Support

Sell 4/17 $300 Put

Selling high IV (72%) at the massive $300 OI support wall. The bullish net premium flow suggests institutions are willing to buy dips here. This trade has edge because it collects rich premium at a strong structural support level in a high IV environment.

Credit: $25.00-$30.00

Max loss: Unlimited below $300 minus credit

BE: $275.00

Mgmt: Roll down/out if $300 is breached; consider taking assignment if confident in long-term $300 floor.

Income-focused traders willing to own MU at $300.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFSpot breaks below $305 (2d EM low) → Enter bear put spread: Buy 4/17 $330 Put, Sell $310 Put.

IFSpot rallies to $370 (resistance within 1w EM) → Sell call credit spread: Sell 4/17 $380 Call, Buy $400 Call.

Exit Triggers

EXITSpot closes above $350 → Exit all bearish positions (e.g., bear put spreads).

EXITSpot closes below $295 (break of $300 wall) → Exit cash-secured puts and all short premium positions.

Tactical Summary

Contradictory regime: bullish flow vs. negative GEX and spot far below MP. Primary thesis is a multi-week grind toward the $300 put wall, with violent counter-trend rallies likely. Favors selling high IV at defined support/resistance and harvesting the steep vol inversion. Top plays: 1) Reverse put calendar (harvest front-week IV), 2) 45 DTE bear put spread (defined-risk bearish), 3) CSP at $300 (high-IV income at support).

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on March 31, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

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Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.