base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -1 spot 9.7% from MP; +1 VIX 18
Term structure: Steep near-term skew; put IV > call IV across expirations; term structure elevated but slightly contango after 0 DTE
Spot vs MP: Above
GEX regime: Pinning ($+24.5M)
Gamma flip: ~$235.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 10,407 (16.0% below spot)
OI concentrations: Put OI heavy $150-$235 (10,407 at $235); call OI wall $300-$300; max pain pin $255 (6/12)
#1Put credit spread
Sell 2026-07-17 $240.00/$210.00 put spread
Sell $240/$210 put spread for credit, defined risk, capitalizing on extreme IV while limiting downside.
Mgmt: Exit if spot breaks below $235 or at 50% max gain; adjust strikes if IV spikes.
#2Short strangle
Sell 2026-07-17 $230.00 put + sell $390.00 call
Sell $230 put and $390 call, collecting premium with undefined risk but size control.
Mgmt: Manage size tightly; roll if spot approaches strikes; set stop loss at 2x credit.
!Earnings/event-driven IV spike distorts premiums
!Put OI concentration below spot could pin price lower
!Max pain $255 proximity increases assignment risk