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MRNA

Moderna, Inc.Close $48.12EOD only

Max Pain

$50.00

Next expiry May 22, 2026

Expected Move

±$2.29

4.8% from close

Price Gap

+1.88

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Low premium

P/C OI

0.86

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

3/4

Partial coverage

Published snapshot: May 20, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects MRNA options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 20, 2026 close

MRNA Theta Report

Analysis based on market close March 31, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Theta Verdict

Confidence:

7 / 10

base 5; +2 high IV; +1 strong pinning; +1 liquid; -2 high vol stock risk

IV Environment

IV Regime

High

IV vs VIX

IV 81% — extremely elevated

Favorable?

Yes

Term structure: Humped at 5/08 (75%), elevated across all expirations

💰IV >80% provides exceptional premium for sellers

⚠️IV crush risk post-earnings (4/30)

Pin Risk Assessment

Spot vs MP: Below by 2.3% ($50.80 vs $52.00)

GEX regime: Strong Pinning (GEX +$28.9M)

Gamma flip: ~$25.00 — Massive put OI at $25 creates strong support; below $25, dealers amplify moves down

OI concentrations: Call walls: $50 (25.6K), $40 (20.4K), $36 (17.1K). Put walls: $25 (16.1K), $40 (14.3K), $20 (13.4K)

Verdict: Highly favorable — strong positive GEX and OI concentrations create magnetic pinning effect

Premium Opportunities

put spread

Sell $40/$35 put spread 5/15 (45 DTE)

High IV provides rich premium. Strike sits at major OI support ($40 put wall: 14,290 OI). Well below current spot ($50.80) with 21% buffer. Positive GEX supports pinning.

Credit: $1.10-$1.40

Max loss: $3.90

BE: $38.60

Mgmt: Close at 65% profit. Exit if spot closes below $38. Roll if tested but not breached. Avoid holding through earnings (4/30).

iron condor

Sell $45/$40P x $60/$65C 5/15 (45 DTE)

Captures high IV across both sides. Range ($45-$60) aligns with expected move (±$10.45). Call side uses $60 strike below $61.25 expected move high. Put side uses $45 strike above $40.35 expected move low.

Credit: $1.80-$2.20

Max loss: $3.20

BE: 43.20/61.80

Mgmt: Close at 50% profit. Manage wings independently — roll tested side. Exit entire position if spot breaches either short strike.

cash-secured put

Sell $40 put 6/18 (79 DTE)

For capital-secure sellers. $40 is major OI support (14,290 puts). 79 DTE provides time buffer and high theta decay in high IV. 21% below spot.

Credit: $4.50-$5.50

Max loss: $35.50

BE: $35.50

Mgmt: Roll out and down if tested (e.g., to $35 strike). Close at 70% profit. Be prepared to take assignment at $40 if necessary.

call credit spread

Sell $56/$61 call spread 4/24 (24 DTE)

Short call at $56 aligns with large OI wall (15,983). Current spot ($50.80) provides 10% buffer. IV crush post-earnings (4/30) benefits short calls. Defined risk.

Credit: $0.85-$1.05

Max loss: $4.15

BE: $56.85

Mgmt: Close at 65% profit. Exit if spot closes above $55.50. Do not hold through earnings.

Risk Alerts

!Earnings 4/30 — close all short premium positions before announcement. IV will crush.

!Gamma flip ~$25 — breach could trigger accelerated selling. Key invalidation level.

!High IV (>80%) indicates elevated stock-specific risk — size positions accordingly.

!Unusual activity in Dec 2026 $85/$135 puts suggests institutional hedging for long-term downside.

!Net premium flow negative (-$49.4M) indicates more premium paid than collected — monitor for directional pressure.

!MP trend falling ($52 → $35) across expirations suggests longer-term bearish positioning.

How to Use These Reports

This theta reflects the market close on March 31, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.