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MRNA

Moderna, Inc.Close $48.12EOD only

Max Pain

$50.00

Next expiry May 22, 2026

Expected Move

±$2.29

4.8% from close

Price Gap

+1.88

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Low premium

P/C OI

0.86

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

3/4

Partial coverage

Published snapshot: May 20, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects MRNA options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 20, 2026 close

MRNA Directional Report

Analysis based on market close March 31, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Neutral-to-bearish with a short-term pinning magnet toward $51-$52, but a clear structural downtrend in max pain suggests underlying weakness. Confidence: 5/10. The regime is conflicted: positive GEX supports a pin, but net negative premium flow and a falling MP ladder point to selling pressure.

Confidence:

5 / 10

base 5; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -1 GEX/flow contradict (net premium negative); -1 high IV (>80%) adds noise.

Supports: GEX +$28.9M (strong pinning), spot near near-term max pain ($51-$52), P/C volume 0.85 (not extreme call buying).
Conflicts: Net premium -$49.4M (bearish), max pain ladder falls from $52 to $35 long-term, IV >80% obscures directional signals.

📌Strong GEX pin near $51-$52 for next two weeks.

📉Max pain ladder slopes down to $35 by Jan '27 — structural bearish gravity.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

IV 81.3% — extremely high, favoring premium sellers but with elevated tail risk.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

GEX +$28.9M concentrated near spot — powerful pinning force through early April expirations.

Flow Regime

Mixed

Net premium -$49.4M with P/C 0.85 — mixed but net bearish, dominated by large, deep OTM put sales.

Spot vs Max Pain

Below

Spot $50.80 below near-term MP ($51-$52) — pin drift upward likely, but against longer-term downtrend.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — Pinning regime (positive GEX) persists across April expirations ($51 MP), but max pain ladder shows a clear multi-week downtrend, suggesting the pin is a temporary feature within a bearish drift.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$48.53$53.06

Pinning dominates; break below $48.53 (2d EM low) invalidates.

Next 1 week

$46.24$55.35

Pin holds but range widens; watch $46.24 support.

Next 2 weeks

$45.01$56.59

Downward MP drift and negative net flow weigh; resistance at $56 OI wall.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $52 (2026-03-27); $51 (2026-04-02); $51 (2026-04-10)

EM guardrails: 2d $48.53/$53.06; 1w $46.24/$55.35

Support: $25.00 · $40.00 · $25.00

Resistance: $53.00 · $56.00

Gamma flip: ~$25.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 16,149

Structural: **Call OI wall $56** caps rallies; **massive put OI floors at $25, $40** are structural supports but far from spot, indicating long-term bearish hedging.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+28.9M

DEX: +23.9M shares

Gamma flip: ~$25 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 16,149)

NTM gamma: Gamma flip ~$25 is irrelevant near-term; positive GEX from calls near $50-$53 drives pinning. A move below $48.5 would reduce pinning pressure; a move above $53 would accelerate dealer short-covering.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV 81.3% — extremely elevated vs typical biotech/historical, offering rich premium for sellers.

Term structure: Humped — peaks at May expirations (~75%), then flattens. Kink at 5/01 (72.4%) likely pricing April 30 earnings.

Skew: Extreme skew in long-dated, deep OTM puts (e.g., Dec '26 $85 Put IV 205%) — potential for ratio spreads selling those strikes vs buying nearer-dated puts.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: -$49.4M bearish; P/C vol 0.85, P/C OI 0.99.

Directional prints: $53C 3/27 vol 155 vs OI 16,178 — likely closing/selling against existing long OI. $40P vol 104 vs OI 14,290 — could be rolling or closing.

Unusual: **Deep OTM Put Sales**: Massive premium in Dec '26 $85P ($16.5M) and $135P ($7.1M) — likely institutional tail-risk hedging or financing trades, not directional.

Risks & Catalysts

!**Gamma pin break**: A close below $48.53 (2d EM low) releases pin and could trigger accelerated selling.

!**Earnings volatility (4/30)**: High IV in May expirations; vol crush post-event is a risk for long premium.

!**Structural put floors are distant**: A breakdown could find little support until $40.

!**Extreme IV**: While good for sellers, a spike in spot volatility could blow through short strikes.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Long stock	Weak	N/A	Bearish MP trend and negative net flow oppose.
Short stock	Moderate-Weak	N/A	Near-term pinning creates headwinds; better expressed via options.
Covered call	Moderate-Strong	Own stock, sell $53C or $55C 4/10 or 4/17.	Stock pinned below strike; upside capped.
Cash-secured put / put spread	Moderate-Strong	Sell $45/$40 put spread 4/17 (below 1w EM low).	Break of pin below $46.24.
Long calls	Weak	N/A	High IV expensive; pinning limits upside.
Long puts / bear put spread	Moderate	Buy $50/$45 put spread 4/17 or 5/01 (earnings).	Pinning eats theta; need break below $48.5.
Iron condor	Moderate	$45P/$40P x $53C/$56C 4/17 (outside 1w EM bounds).	GEX positive but VIX proxy (IV) >28, and range is wide.
Calendar/diagonal	Moderate	Sell 5/01 $51C (IV 72.4%), buy 4/17 $51C (IV 66.0%) — reverse calendar for pin breakdown.	Pin holds through April expiry.
PMCC / LEAPS diagonal	Moderate	Buy Jan '27 $35C, sell Apr/May $51-$53 calls against it.	Long-dated IV still high; capital intensive.

Top Plays

Covered Call (Against Existing Shares)

Sell $53 Call, 4/17 expiry.

Capitalizes on the strong pinning regime and high IV to generate premium while shares are likely range-bound below $53. The strike is above near-term max pain and at a key OI resistance level.

Credit: $1.20-$1.50

Max loss: Unlimited (stock decline)

BE: Stock purchase price minus credit

Mgmt: Take profit at 50-70% of credit; consider rolling if spot approaches $52.50. Exit if spot closes above $53.50.

Shareholders looking to enhance yield in a choppy, high-vol environment.

Defined-Risk Put Spread

Sell $45 / Buy $40 Put Spread, 4/17 expiry.

Sells elevated IV with defined risk, targeting the $46.24 1w EM low as support. Aligns with the pinning regime's mean-reversion tendency and collects premium from fear priced into puts.

Credit: $0.85-$1.10

Max loss: $4.15

BE: $44.15

Mgmt: Close at 60-80% max profit. Exit if spot closes below $46.00 (breaches 1w EM support).

Traders with a neutral-to-bullish bias seeking defined-risk income, comfortable with the pin holding.

Long-Dated Bear Put Spread (Structural Thesis)

Buy $50 / Sell $45 Put Spread, 6/18 expiry (~80 DTE).

Expresses the structural bearish thesis (falling MP ladder) with longer duration, reducing the impact of near-term pinning noise. The extra time improves risk/reward by providing a wider window for the downtrend to materialize versus a near-term play that could expire during the pin.

Debit: $1.80-$2.20

Max loss: $3.20

BE: $48.20

Mgmt: Manage at 25-50% profit; exit if pin holds strongly and spot reclaims $52.50. Roll down if spot drops quickly.

Traders with a bearish multi-week view willing to pay debit for defined risk, hedging against a pin breakdown.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFSpot tags $48.60 (tests 2d EM low) and bounces → Enter $45/$40 put spread 4/17.

IFSpot rallies to $52.50 (near max pain) with declining volume → Sell $53/$56 call spread 4/10.

Exit Triggers

EXITVIX proxy (MRNA IV) drops below 70% (vol crush) → Take profit on all short premium positions (iron condors, put spreads).

EXITSpot closes above $53.50 → Exit short call positions (covered calls, call spreads).

Tactical Summary

Primary thesis: Strong near-term pin ($51-$52) within a multi-week bearish drift. Favor selling premium (covered calls, put spreads) against the pin, or positioning bearish with longer-dated spreads for the structural downtrend. Invalidation of the pin is a close below $48.53. Top plays: 1) Covered calls for shareholders, 2) Put spreads for defined-risk income, 3) Long-dated bear put spreads for the structural trend.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on March 31, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.