base 5; -1 GEX/flow contradict; +1 GEX positive (pinning); +0.5 spot 1.8% from MP; +1 VIX 18
Term structure: Front-month IV spikes (call IV 67% on Jul2), steep contango from 0d to 2d, backwardation thereafter
Spot vs MP: Above
GEX regime: Pinning ($+64.0M)
OI concentrations: Max pain $552 (Jun29, Jul1, Jul2); Put OI absent below 30% spot; Call OI wall $700-$800; GEX +$64M
#1Iron condor
Sell 2026-07-31 $510.00/$475.00 put wing and $640.00/$690.00 call wing
Sells OTM wings to profit from volatility crush and range-bound price.
Mgmt: Close at 50% max gain or if spot breaks support/resistance.
#2Put credit spread
Sell 2026-07-31 $510.00/$475.00 put spread
Sells OTM put spread to collect premium with high probability.
Mgmt: Monitor support; can roll down if tested.
#3PMCC / LEAPS diagonal
Buy 2026-09-18 $500.00 call + sell 2026-07-24 $615.00 call
Buy LEAPS call, sell near-term call against it.
Mgmt: Adjust short leg on IV spikes; roll to avoid early assignment.
!High call skew may lead to rapid IV crush on expiration
!Spot above max pain, potential drift lower if selling pressure increases
!Event risk on weekly expirations with elevated front-end IV