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META

Meta Platforms, Inc.Close $671.58EOD only
Max Pain
$605.00
Next expiry Apr 17, 2026
Expected Move
±$7.08
1.1% from close
Price Gap
-66.58
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
84
High premium
P/C OI
0.48
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
6.5/10
Consensus signal
Published snapshot: Apr 15, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects META options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Apr 15, 2026 close
META Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close April 15, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Earnings Verdict

8.0/10 — Best strategy is defined-risk premium capture (short premium) sized to survive a guidance shock; consider put-credit spreads or iron_condor-like defined wings ahead of the April 29 earnings. Key risk: a guidance-driven gap that breaks the short-side support (notably $645/$615 deterministic supports) and forces rapid repricing.

Confidence:
8 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -0.5 spot 4.1% from MP; +0.5 VIX 18
Most important: Front-week IV is moderate and dealers are net long gamma (+$277.2M GEX) which creates pinning pressure around the $670–$675 GEX concentrations; watch for guidance/gap risk that can overwhelm pinning.
📅Earnings on 2026-04-29 (14d) — May1 (16d) expiry is the post-event focal point with ATM IV 50.2%.
📌Near-term GEX concentrations at $672.50 (+$27.5M) and $670.00 (+$26.7M) are immediate pin magnets.
⚖️Max pain near-term: $645.00 (2026-04-15) — aligns with deterministic support and cash-secured put entry rationale.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
Normal
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Bullish
Spot vs MP
Above
Gamma flip: ~$500.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 15,159 (25.5% below spot)

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-04-29 (14 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-04-17 (2d): ±$7.07 (1.1%)
  • 2026-04-20 (5d): ±$9.35 (1.4%)
  • 2026-04-22 (7d): ±$13.15 (2.0%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Front-week tenors (2–9d) show elevated short-dated IV (~31–33%) while the first post-event expiry (2026-05-01, 16d) jumps to ATM 50.2% — a clear earnings-related term-structure kink with expensive back-week vol.

Crush estimate: Material crush for May-week expiry (~16d) after the April 29 event — expect a multi-point IV drop from ~50% ATM on 2026-05-01 to the longer-dated mid-30s; front 2–9d expirations (31–33% ATM) will compress less but still see notable contraction. Overall: High for the May16d bucket, Moderate for front-week.

Skew: Downside puts carry concentrated OI (put floor $500–$600) but skew is relatively balanced; calls dominate premium flow at strikes $670–$720 indicating tilted upside positioning in flow metrics.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 75% (3/4 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: META historically beats expectations (75% beat rate, 3/4 last quarters) and has delivered outsized moves on positive surprises; implied move for the 16d expiry is ±$56.17 (8.4%) which is larger than 1-week/2-day moves — front-term structure shows market pricing of a material event in the May 01 series.

Directional bias: Slight upside bias into earnings driven by consistent beat history and bullish net premium flow (+$427.7M) alongside positive GEX/Dex positioning (GEX +$277.2M, DEX +84.2M shares).

Key Levels

1$500.00 gamma flip
2EM guardrails: 2d $664.51/$678.66; 1w $662.23/$680.93
3Max pain pins: $645 (2026-04-15); $605 (2026-04-17); $625 (2026-04-20)

Flow Highlights

Heavy call premium flow concentrated at $720, $700, $670 strikes (top premium flow entries).

Speculative and dealer call selling concentrated above spot suggests upside participation priced into the wings — this supports defined-risk short premium plays inside the EM bounds.

Near-term GEX concentrations at $672.50 (+$27.5M) and $670.00 (+$26.7M).

Dealer pinning/hedging pressure should magnet the stock toward the $670–$672.50 area absent a guidance gap, reducing realized move versus gross implied move on short-dated expiries.

Net premium strongly bullish (+$427.7M) with P/C volume 0.37.

Flow is skewed toward call buying; this increases call-side liquidity but also makes call wings more expensive; puts are cheaper relative to calls for defined-risk hedges.

Strategies

Defined-risk put credit (collect premium vs support)
Sell 2026-05-01 $630.00/$590.00 put spread
Credit: $6.41-$7.84
Max loss: $32.16
Max gain: $7.84
BE: $622.16
Trigger: Close into post-earnings IV drop or tighten/roll if spot breaches $645 support; cut if gap opens below $615 structural support.
Best risk-adjusted way to harvest front-to-intermediate vol while respecting deterministic supports at $645.00 and $615.41 and leveraging GEX pinning around $670–$672.50.
Outperforms: Sell a short-dated (14–45d) put around ~25Δ and buy a lower put ~10Δ for a defined-width credit — sized to survive typical IV contraction.
Underperforms: Break below support threatens short-put strike.
Near-term iron condor inside EM rails
Sell 2026-04-24 $645.00/$610.00 put wing and $702.50/$735.00 call wing
Credit: $6.04-$7.38
Max loss: $27.62
Max gain: $7.38
BE: 637.62 / 709.88
Trigger: Tighten or butterfly-reduce the position pre-release if IV spikes; close short-side if spot breaches inner short strikes decisively.
Captures compressed realized range between EM guardrails (2d/1w $664.51–$678.66 / $662.23–$680.93) and uses defined wings to limit tail risk.
Outperforms: Sell calls and puts around ~20Δ in the 9–23d expirations and buy protective wings ~5Δ — targets range harvesting while keeping risk defined.
Underperforms: Move outside short strikes invalidates range thesis.

Risk Assessment

!Gap risk: High — guidance or revenue shock can gap price outside deterministic supports (e.g., below $645 or $615) and quickly stress short premium structures.
!IV crush: High for May1 (16d) bucket (ATM IV 50.2%); expect significant IV compression post-release that benefits short-premium and hurts long vol.
!Liquidity: Option liquidity is strong at common strikes ($650–$750) but thins in far wings; prefer structures using liquid strikes (e.g., 670/675/680/700).
!Sizing: Keep position sizes moderate relative to account to absorb temporary gamma moves given dealers are long gamma and may hedge into price moves.

What to Watch

?Price action relative to near-term GEX pins: $670.00 and $672.50 (both listed exact values).
?IV slope between 2026-04-24 (32.7% ATM) and 2026-05-01 (50.2% ATM) — steep jump signals expensive May-week vol.
?Unusual activity on front-cycle strikes (notably heavy call premium at $675/$680/$720) for directional flow cues.

Read the Earnings analysis for META for 2026-04-15. Each report is a market-close snapshot with regime read, key levels, and strategy context that translates options positioning into an actionable setup.