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META

Meta Platforms, Inc.Close $632.51EOD only
Max Pain
$615.00
Next expiry Jun 1, 2026
Expected Move
±$4.08
0.6% from close
Price Gap
-17.51
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
55
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
0.45
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
8.5/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: May 29, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects META options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 29, 2026 close
META Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close April 13, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from April 13, 2026. A newer earnings report is available for May 22, 2026.

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Earnings Verdict

META is in a pinning, bullish dealer regime with very large positive GEX (+$223.1M) concentrated right near the spot (largest at $635.00). Best strategy: premium sell / range sell or directional call-spread skewed to upside tail risk — specifically a short iron-condor around the 2d EM or a defined-call debit spread for controlled upside exposure. Key risk: a guidance-driven gap that exceeds the 2–7 day EM rails ($622.88 / $646.18 and $614.11 / $654.96) which would cause rapid dealer unwind despite strong pinning.

Confidence:
8.5 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned (pinning bullish); +1 GEX positive (pinning at spot); +0.5 VIX 19.1 (calm)
Most important: Monitor IV into the 2d/1w expirations (ATM IV 25.8% for 2d, 27.7%–29.7% in near-term) and OTM call premium flow around $630–$635 which fuels dealer pinning at $635.00.
📅Next confirmed earnings date listed as 2026-04-29 (TBD); term structure shows concentrated short-dated premium into mid-April expirations.
📌Strong pin magnet at $635.00 (GEX +$58.5M) — expect spot to gravitate toward this level absent a big surprise.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
Normal
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Bullish
Spot vs MP
Above
Gamma flip: ~$500.00 — Gamma flip sits ~21.2% below spot (~$500) — below that dealers amplify directional moves; currently well above flip so dealers are net short-gamma near spot and likely to damp moves toward pin levels.

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-04-29 (TBD) (16 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-04-15 (2d): : : :

IV Setup

Term structure: Near-term kink: ATM IV 25.8% (2d), 29.7% (4d) and ~27.7% (7d) with larger term IV picking up by May (18d ATM 42.9%). This shows concentrated short-dated premium into the next few expirations while longer-dated vols remain elevated.

Crush estimate: ~10-15 vol pts from the 2d/1w peaks back toward longer-dated term (post-event 2d/1w IV could compress from ~26-30% toward the 18d ~42.9% anchor for different tenors — operationally expect realized near-term IV to drop ~8-12 vol pts vs the bump into expiry).

Skew: Call-heavy premium around $630–$635 (large net call premium entries) but puts concentrate lower (notably 600/500 area) — near-term skew mildly call-rich which supports pinning at $635.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 75% (3/4 recent quarters beat EPS estimates)

Avg move vs expected: Not explicitly provided for moves vs EM, but historical surprises show outsized positive surprises in 3 of last 4 quarters.

Directional bias: Bias toward upside on reported EPS (3/4 beats), supports asymmetric upside scenarios following results.

Key Levels

1$646.18 (2d EM upper)
2$622.88 (2d EM lower)
3$620.00 (max pain / short-term pin level)

Flow Highlights

Very large net premium at $630.00 / $632.50 / $635.00 strikes (Top Premium Flow entries: $630 net +$34,016,560; $625 net +$19,187,030; $632.50 call flow $14,441,742).

Heavy bought call premium concentrated at/around $630–$635 is consistent with dealers selling calls and hedging by shorting stock or buying puts — this creates a pin magnet at $635.00 (matches +$58.5M GEX concentration).

Large OI in farther calls ($700/$750/$800) and concentrated put OI at $500/$600 (Top OI strikes).

Structural long-call exposure in higher strikes leaves dealers short delta into large upside moves; put floor around $500–$600 acts as tail protection for dealers but is far below spot — immediate near-term action will be dominated by the $630–$640 band.

Strategies

Short iron-condor (defined risk premium sell)
Sell 625/615 put spread and sell 655/665 call spread exp 2026-04-15
Credit: $4.50-$6.00
Max loss: $5.50
Max gain: $6.00
BE: Lower: 620.50, Upper: 661.00
Trigger: Enter 1-2 days before expiry if spot remains inside the 2d EM ($622.88-$646.18) and IV hasn't ripped higher.
Pinning to $635 (GEX +$58.5M) and substantial call sell-side flow make short premium attractive; wings at 10-point widths limit tail risk while capturing elevated near-term premium.
Outperforms: Stock stays within the 1w EM rails ($614.11-$654.96) and dealer pinning holds; time decay and positive GEX work in sellers' favor.
Underperforms: A gap >~3% outside the 2d EM occurs on earnings/guidance; rapid IV spike that widens both wings.
Long straddle (pure volatility play)
Buy 635 straddle exp 2026-04-15 (buy 635C + 635P)
Debit: $20.00-$21.50
Max loss: $21.50
Max gain: Unlimited
BE: ~614.50 / ~656.50 (approx based on cost)
Trigger: Enter 1 day before earnings or after any pop in IV that still leaves straddle pricing below expected realized move; avoid if IV has already blown out >30% from current.
High buyer interest around $635 and near-term IV support a straddle if you expect a gap or big move; historical beat tendency supports an asymmetric upside tail but this is pure volatility exposure.
Outperforms: Actual post-earnings move exceeds the 2d/1w EM by >30% (large surprise, guidance shock).
Underperforms: Stock pins near $635 and IV crushes post-release — or move is inside EM and time decay dominates.
Bull call debit spread (directional with defined risk)
Buy 640C / Sell 660C exp 2026-04-20
Debit: $5.20-$6.00
Max loss: $6.00
Max gain: $14.00
BE: $645.20
Trigger: Enter if you expect upside follow-through post-earnings or if IV compresses after a weak open — use as a cheaper directional alternative to an outright call.
Defined risk, captures the upside skew while using available strikes (640 & 660). Dealer pinning at 635 makes a quick jump above 640 a likely gamma-hedge mover; this spread limits cost vs long calls while retaining upside.
Outperforms: Stock rallies above ~646 and continues into the 650s while IV remains steady or contracts modestly.
Underperforms: Stock grinds sideways within the EM or falls below the 2d lower EM ($622.88).

Risk Assessment

!Gap risk: Earnings/guidance can produce a directional gap exceeding the 2d EM ±$11.65 (1.8%) and the 1w EM ±$20.43 (3.2%). Larger surprises would blow through dealer pinning.
!IV crush: Near-term ATM IV lives ~25.8% (2d) and ~29.7% (4d). Buying volatility (straddles) is exposed to post-event IV compression; sellers risk being caught if IV spikes higher pre-release.
!Liquidity: Chain is liquid (Total OI 2,547,642; active strikes 287). Near-spot strikes (630–640) show heavy volume/OI and tight spreads; farther wings are thinner (watch slippage).
!Sizing: Given strong positive GEX, position size smaller sells (iron condor) to avoid concentrated dealer squeezes; keep long volatility positions size-limited because of potential IV collapse.
!Flow risk: Large one-sided call premium flows around $630–$635 can flip quickly into delta-hedge rotations if spot moves, making rapid intraday moves possible even inside EM.

What to Watch

?IV trajectory into the 2d/1w expirations (current ATM IV 25.8% for 2d, 29.7% for 4d).
?Unusual OTM/ITM flow at $630–$635 (top premium and unusual activity lines) and any sudden increase in net call buying at 650+ strikes.
?Spot action relative to the strong GEX concentrations: $635.00, $632.50, $630.00 — breaches of these levels will change dealer hedging behavior.
?Earnings guidance or comments that could create a gap outside the 1w EM rails ($614.11 / $654.96).
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on April 13, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

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What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.