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META

Meta Platforms, Inc.Close $688.55EOD only
Max Pain
$640.00
Next expiry Apr 20, 2026
Expected Move
±$6.42
0.9% from close
Price Gap
-48.55
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
100
High premium
P/C OI
0.48
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
6.0/10
Consensus signal
Published snapshot: Apr 17, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects META options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Apr 17, 2026 close
META Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close April 10, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from April 10, 2026. A newer earnings report is available for April 17, 2026.

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Earnings Verdict

META has a normal vol, pinning regime with large positive dealer gamma (GEX +$140.2M) and bullish flow; best strategy is a directional/dispersion approach around the May-01 cycle or a premium sale sized to the pin (sell premium into pin concentration near $625-$630). Key risk is a >10% gap driven by news/guidance that would blow past dealer pinning and OI walls.

Confidence:
7 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -1 spot 6.8% above max pain
Most important: Dealer gamma concentration at $625/$630 (pin magnets) — if price pins there, short-premium trades will hold; a break away from those levels quickly increases gap risk.
📌Dealer gamma heavily concentrated at $625/$630 — pin risk is the dominant short-term factor.
📈Longer-dated May IV (21d ATM 42.7%) shows the market is pricing elevated move around the Apr29 window.
⚖️Historical beat rate 75% (3/4 recent); a biased edge toward upside but past large miss (2025-09-30) warns sizing discipline.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
Normal
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Bullish
Spot vs MP
Above
Gamma flip: ~$500.00 — Below ~$500, dealers amplify moves (put OI concentration ~15,139, 20.6% below spot).

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-04-29 (TBD) (19 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-04-24 (14d): 731.42 (5.0%) [$598.43 - $661.28]
  • 2026-05-01 (21d): 51.15 (8.1%) [$578.71 - $681.01]

IV Setup

Term structure: Near-term ATM IV is low (3d 24.7%) and rises with tenor toward the earnings window (14d 32.4%, 21d 42.7%) — a clear forward kink consistent with an event ~21 days out (Apr29).

Crush estimate: ~6-10 vol pts (expect IV to snap down after the release toward multi-week term levels; may settle in the mid-to-high 30s on same-tenor options).

Skew: Skew is relatively call-heavy in premium flow (large call net premium at $600/$630/$645) and overall puts show concentrated OI at $500; short-dated puts have slightly lower IV than calls in longer tenors — market is modestly call-biased.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 75% (3/4 recent quarters listed beat estimates: 2025-12-31, 2025-06-30, 2025-03-31)

Avg move vs expected: Not directly provided in raw table; recent quarters include one large miss (2025-09-30) but overall tendency to beat estimates.

Directional bias: Up-biased (3 of 4 listed quarters print positive surprises; tendency to gap up more often than down in these samples).

Key Levels

1$625.00
2$630.00
3$640.00
4$620.00
5$610.00

Flow Highlights

Net premium flow very call-heavy at $600 (Call $44,283,992 / Put $5,832,660 → Net $38,451,332).

Large institutional call-selling/buying interest concentrated at $600 suggests directional bullish positioning or structured call selling around that strike.

Near-term GEX concentration: +$6.7M at $625.00 and +$4.4M at $630.00 (pin magnets).

Dealers are long gamma around these strikes and will hedge to keep price near that zone, increasing pinning probability into expirations that encompass the event.

Unusual call activity in longer-dated May calls (e.g., $665 and $710 expirations with large vols).

Outsize buyer interest for upside exposure into/after earnings — potential directional upside catalyst or structured positioning that could fuel upward moves post-release.

Strategies

Short iron-condor (premium sale around the pin)
Sell 2026-04-24 625/620 put spread and sell 640/645 call spread (widths 5/5) — collect credit.
Credit: $1.80-$2.40
Max loss: $3.20
Max gain: $2.40
BE: Downside: 622.2 / Upside: 642.4 (approx, using collected credit)
Trigger: Enter 3-5 days before expiry if price is pinning near $625-$630 and IV hasn't run up >5 vol pts.
Dealer gamma pinning at $625/$630 and bearish max pain trend make short premium advantageous; limited width keeps defined risk.
Outperforms: Price remains inside the 2d/1w EM guardrails (2d $624.41/$635.31, 1w $621.36/$638.36) and pins near $625-$630.
Underperforms: A guidance-driven gap >1.5-2% beyond the condor wings occurs or IV drops dramatically before trade establishment.
Long straddle (earnings breakout directional play)
Buy 2026-05-01 630 straddle (buy 630C + 630P exp 2026-05-01).
Debit: $48.00-$55.00
Max loss: $55.00
Max gain: Unlimited
BE: Approx 630 48 / 630 + 52 → ~582 / ~682 (use actual fill prices)
Trigger: Enter 1-3 days before earnings if you expect a >EM move or if IV is ~stable below 50%; prefer entry if IV has not already front-run to >50%
Large positive flow into longer-dated calls and elevated 21d ATM IV (42.7%) mean a straddle captures asymmetric upside from surprise-guidance moves while limiting vega exposure to the single cycle.
Outperforms: Actual post-earnings move exceeds the May-01 EM (~51.15) or when guidance drives a large directional gap.
Underperforms: Stock pins near $625-$630 and IV collapses without a large move; also loses if move is smaller than breakeven bands.
Directional call spread (bull skew capture)
Buy 2026-05-01 635/655 call vertical (debit) — 20-point width using available strikes.
Debit: $6.50-$9.00
Max loss: $9.00
Max gain: $10.00
BE: $641.50
Trigger: Enter if flow shows continued buying in May calls (e.g., $665/$710 activity) and you want convex upside with limited vega.
Captures upside signaled by sustained call buying while capping cost and reducing straight vega exposure compared with a straddle.
Outperforms: Post-earnings upside >~3% (clears EM guardrail to 21d range) but not an extreme blowout beyond 20% where outright calls would perform better.
Underperforms: Stock declines or pins; or if upside move is small and IV crush is the dominant effect.

Risk Assessment

!Gap risk: earnings/news can create >10% gaps; dealer pinning mitigates small moves but cannot stop large guidance shocks.
!IV crush: expected post-event IV compression (~6-10 vol pts); long vega trades (straddle) must exceed premium+crush to win.
!Liquidity: option chain is liquid (Total OI 2,440,518) but some strikes (wings) have thinner OI — use size-aware fills.
!Sizing: with GEX +$140.2M, start smaller on directional longs and size short-premium trades to avoid being forced through a gamma unwind on a gap.
!Max-pain divergence: max pain across expiries is drifting lower (MP trend falling); risk that persistent selling pressure emerges into later cycles.

What to Watch

?Price action relative to $625/$630 pin magnets (GEX concentration +$6.7M / +$4.4M).
?IV trajectory into the Apr29 event and front-month vs May-01 ATM IV (watch 21d ATM 42.7%).
?Unusual May call flow (notably $665 and $710) that could indicate institutional directional bets.
?Max pain shifts in the days leading to earnings (current short-term MP around $590-$600 vs spot $629.86).
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on April 10, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.