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META

Meta Platforms, Inc.Close $610.26EOD only
Max Pain
$602.50
Next expiry May 26, 2026
Expected Move
±$9.07
1.5% from close
Price Gap
-7.76
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
47
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
0.45
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
8.0/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: May 22, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects META options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 22, 2026 close
META Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close April 8, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from April 8, 2026. A newer earnings report is available for May 22, 2026.

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Earnings Verdict

High-confidence (7/10) setup for an IV-crush / pinning sensitive event window. Best strategy: directional/volatility plays that respect strong dealer pinning around $610–$617.50 or premium-selling inside the 2‑day EM band ($594.22–$630.62). Key risk: a gap outside the near 2‑day EM (±3.0%) from a surprise guide or market shock will negate pinning and rapidly move price toward the structural call OI wall at $700+.

Confidence:
7 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned (GEX +$122.0M, bullish premium); +1 pinning; -1 spot 6.5% above max pain
Most important: Dealer pinning concentrated at $610/$617.50 (GEX +$7.9M / +$4.2M) — watch whether spot holds these levels into prints.
📌Pin magnets concentrated at $610 and $617.50 (GEX +$7.9M / +$4.2M) — these are the most important intraday levels into short-dated expiries.
🔥2‑day ATM IV 50.7% with heavy call premium at $600 and $620 — short premium inside EM looks attractive but be prepared for gap risk.
🧭Structural call OI wall starts $700–$900 (well above spot) — large breakout would likely be extended if dealers stop pinning.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Bullish
Spot vs MP
Above
Gamma flip: ~$500.00 — Gamma flip sits around $500 (put OI concentration 15,174; ~18.4% below spot) — below current trading band and not an immediate dealer amplification level for near‑term expiries.

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-04-29 (21 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-04-10 (2d): ±$18.20 (3.0%) [$594.22 - $630.62]
  • 2026-04-13 (5d): ±$11.25 (1.8%) [$601.17 - $623.67]

IV Setup

Term structure: Sharp near-term kink: 2‑day ATM IV 50.7% then falls to ~40% by 5–12d (5d ATM 40.4%, 7d 39.6%).

Crush estimate: ~10–11 vol pts back to the 5–12d term bucket (from 50.7% -> ~40–41%).

Skew: Puts are relatively rich in very short dated chain (several ITM/near-ITM puts with heavy flow), but overall call buying dominates premium flow.

Historical Context

Beat rate: Provided data shows mixed surprises (3 beats, 1 large miss in recent 4 quarters) — not strongly directional

Avg move vs expected: Not explicitly computed from table; past EPS outcomes include outsized miss (2025-09-30) and multiple beats—expect variability in guidance reaction.

Directional bias: Mixed (recent large miss then beats) — no clean directional edge from historical EPS table

Key Levels

1$610.00 (GEX +$7.9M pin magnet, -0.4% from spot)
2$617.50 (GEX +$4.2M pin magnet, +0.8% from spot)
3EM: $594.22 - $630.62 (2d expected move)

Flow Highlights

Very large net call premium at $600.00: Call $100,858,488 / Put $22,752,295 (Net $78,106,192).

Aggressive directional call exposure centered below spot implying dealers are long delta and will hedge by selling stock into upside — supports pinning between $600–$620.

Heavy flows at $620.00 and $620–$627.50 strikes (e.g. $620 call net premium $58.4M at $620.00 and unusual $627.50C vol/OI).

Concentration of upside speculative calls limb toward the $625–630 area; if IV and spot rally into that zone dealers will supply shares/hedge with selling pressure near resistance.

Significant put OI at $500.00 (15,174 OI) and concentrated short-dated put activity at 600–615 strikes (unusual volumes at 600/602.5/605/610 puts).

A large structural put floor exists at $500 but it's well below current spot; near‑term put flow (600–615) looks like hedging/buying protection which could blunt downside and support pinning.

Strategies

Short iron condor (earnings window credit)
Sell 4/10 (2d) expiration iron condor inside 2‑day EM: Sell 597.5C / Buy 620C and Sell 600P / Buy 580P (use strikes from available list: 597.5C, 620C, 600P, 580P).
Credit: $3.00-$6.00
Max loss: $17.50
Max gain: $6.00
BE: Upside BE ~623.5 / Downside BE ~594.5 (approx; depends on filled credit)
Trigger: Enter 1–2 days before the 4/10 short-dated run if IV remains elevated (~50% ATM) and bid/ask spreads stay tight.
High short-term IV (50.7%) and strong dealer pinning at 597.5–610 create favorable premium for selling premium; flow is bullish so upside risk is dealer-hedged but limited inside EM.
Outperforms: Stock stays within the 2‑day EM [$594.22–$630.62] and IV compresses post-event.
Underperforms: A gap outside ±3% occurs (e.g., guidance shock), or heavy upside gap toward $650+ where call OI wall pressure is insufficient.
Long 610 straddle (directional/volatility capture)
Buy 4/10 610 straddle (610C + 610P — available strikes include 610).
Debit: $25.50-$27.50
Max loss: $27.50
Max gain: Unlimited
BE: Downside ~583 / Upside ~637 (using debit range)
Trigger: Enter 1 day pre-event if you expect a move >2d EM (>$18.20) or if IV hasn't blown out beyond current 50.7%.
610 call mid ~14.45 and 610 put mid ~11.45 (chain) imply straddle cost ~25.9; with 2‑day EM ±$18.20, straddle profits require a move >~$6–12 beyond EM or large IV repricing — but captures tails.
Outperforms: Actual move exceeds EM (>~3% in 2-day window) and IV stay elevated into print or market moves strongly post-release.
Underperforms: Stock pins near $610 and IV collapses fully toward the 5–7d bucket (~40%), compressing straddle value.
Directional call spread (bull skew into dealer flow)
Buy 4/10 615C / Sell 4/10 635C (available strikes: 615 and 635) — debit call spread.
Debit: $2.50-$4.50
Max loss: $4.50
Max gain: $15.50
BE: $617.50
Trigger: Initiate if market opens near or above 617.50 and you expect upside to test 625–635, or if unusual buy flow continues into 620–630 strikes.
Leverages large bullish call premium flows at 600/620/625 while capping cost; plays into dealer hedging that tends to supply shares on strong upside activity.
Outperforms: Upside move toward call OI congestion near 625–630 (part of EM upper bound) but stays below heavy structural $700 area.
Underperforms: Price drops back below 610 or IV collapses faster than the underlying rally.

Risk Assessment

!Gap risk: 2‑day EM is ±$18.20 (3.0%) but guidance or macro shocks could produce a larger gap and wipe out short premium quickly.
!IV crush: ATM 2‑day IV 50.7% looks poised to drop ~10–11 vol pts to the 5–12d bucket; long volatility positions must clear that hit or require a larger move to profit.
!Liquidity/spread risk: Near‑term chain is liquid at many strikes (large OI at 610/600/620), but some wings (e.g., 597.5, 635) have thinner markets — use limit orders.
!Sizing: given GEX +$122.0M and heavy dealer pinning, use conservative sizing on short premium (max 1–2% portfolio risk) to avoid gamma pincheffects and potential sharp reversals.

What to Watch

?Spot behavior around $610 and $617.50 pin magnets (GEX +$7.9M / +$4.2M).
?IV trajectory: 2d ATM 50.7% vs 5–12d ~40% (watch mid‑day skews and front‑week IV if it surges).
?Unusual flow: continued heavy net call premium at $600/$620 and large single‑strike flows at 627.50C or 587.50P.
?Max pain drift: MP currently at $575 → watch if MP trend accelerates lower across expiries.
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on April 8, 2026.
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Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

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These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.