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META

Meta Platforms, Inc.Close $557.67EOD only
Max Pain
$577.50
Next expiry Jun 26, 2026
Expected Move
±$13.82
2.5% from close
Price Gap
+19.83
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
1
Low premium
P/C OI
0.43
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
7.0/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 24, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects META options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 24, 2026 close
META Directional Report
Analysis based on market close June 25, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

META faces downward pressure into monthly expiry with negative gamma and spot below max pain. High vol and trending gamma imply continued moves toward support $533. Support at $512 (2-week low) but near-term resistance from max pain. Bias bearish near-term, but uncertain beyond.

Confidence:
7 / 10
Base 5 from trend and flow; +2 for GEX/flow alignment; -0.5 for spot 4.8% from MP; +0.5 for VIX 19.
Supports: Negative gamma and dealer hedging; spot below max pain; high vol.
Conflicts: Mixed flow; VIX moderate; support at $512.
📉Max pain $570–$575 creates gravity below
⚡Neg GEX & trending gamma amplify downside
🎯Spot 4.8% below MP suggests drift lower

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
IV elevated relative to VIX; high vol regime amidst monthly expiry and mixed flow.
Gamma Regime
Trending
Negative gamma ($-26.9M GEX) in trending mode; dealer hedging amplifies spot moves.
Flow Regime
Mixed
Mixed net premium flow; no decisive skew.
Spot vs Max Pain
Below
Spot ~$548, 4.8% below max pain $570–575; pin pressure downside.
Thesis duration: Event-specific — Monthly option expiration approaching with max-pain at $570–$575; spot trading below. High vol and negative gamma amplify directional risk.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days
$533.54$552.19
Testing $533 support
Next 1 week
$532.24$553.49
Max pain pull likely
Next 2 weeks
$512.19$573.54
Wider range $512–$574

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $570 (2026-06-26); $572 (2026-06-29); $565 (2026-07-01)
EM guardrails: 2d $533.54/$552.19; 1w $532.24/$553.49
Support: $512.19
Resistance: $570.00 · $573.54
Structural: Support $512 (2w low), resistance $570 max pain, $573.54 2w high; EM guardrails $533/$552 2d.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $-26.9M

DEX: +57.8M shares

Gamma flip: N/A

NTM gamma: $-26.9M GEX (neg), $-57.8M DEX; hedge amplifies trend.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: META IV high vs VIX 19, reflecting elevated premiums due to event and negative gamma.

Term structure: Backwardated near-term due to event; longer-dated flatter.

Skew: Put skew elevated; no clear vol structure opportunity.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net -$343M (bearish premium), but highlighted calls show aggressive buying; mixed signal.

Directional prints: 30.5 call 550 OTM 2026-06-26 — Vol/OI 42.6x, aggressive call buying, bullish. 36.7 call 570 OTM 2026-07-01 — Vol/OI 14.4x, likely bought, bullish. 33.2 call 557.5 OTM 2026-06-26 — Vol/OI 12.3x, unusual call buying, bullish.

Unusual: 30.5 call 550 OTM 2026-06-26 — Vol/OI 42.6, heavy buying, bullish. 36.7 call 570 OTM 2026-07-01 — Vol/OI 14.4, bought, bullish. 33.2 call 557.5 OTM 2026-06-26 — Vol/OI 12.3, unusual call activity, bullish.

Risks & Catalysts

!Unexpected positive catalyst could squeeze shorts above $570
!Support $512 may hold if flow shifts bullish
!Volatility contraction post-expiry

Strategy Viability

StrategyEdgeBest SetupPrimary Risk
Bear put spreadModerate-Strong
Buy 2026-07-31 $510.00/$505.00 put spread
Why now: Negative gamma, spot below max pain, bearish flow support downside move to $530.
Upside catalyst could push stock above short strike; max loss limited to debit paid.
Long putModerate
Buy 2026-07-31 $510.00 put
Why now: Negative gamma and bearish premium flow make puts attractive for downside.
Time decay and high IV; stock could move against or stay flat.

Top Plays

#1
Bear Put Spread
Buy 2026-07-31 $510.00/$505.00 put spread
Expresses bearish bias with a defined-risk structure; buys $510 put and sells $505 put to offset premium and reduce time decay.
Why this play: Better risk-reward with defined max loss and proximity to support; limited downside risk while benefiting from negative gamma and max pain below spot.
Debit: $1.19-$1.46
Max loss: $1.46
BE: $508.54
Mgmt: Monitor invalidation at $570; exit if vol collapses or spot rallies above $530.
Traders seeking defined risk exposure to near-term bearish move toward support $512-$530.
#2
Long Put
Buy 2026-07-31 $510.00 put
Downside protection or speculative long volatility trade on continued bearish momentum; benefits from gamma if spot follows trending gamma.
Why this play: Higher potential gain but requires precise timing; suitable for aggressive traders expecting quick downside break below $500.
Debit: $13.16-$16.09
Max loss: $16.09
BE: $493.91
Mgmt: Set stop at 50% loss or $570 invalidation; manage theta decay as expiry approaches.
Aggressive traders seeking high convexity on a sharp move below support.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers
IFSpot below $530 and bear put spread debit 1.19-1.46 → Buy 2026-07-31 $510/$505 bear put spread
IFSpot breaks below $512 support → Buy 2026-07-31 $510 put
Exit Triggers
EXITSpot rallies above $530 → Close bear put spread
EXITSpot rallies above $570 → Close all bearish positions
EXITLong put loss exceeds 50% → Close long put

Tactical Summary

Bearish bias near-term due to negative gamma and spot below max pain. Key support $512, resistance $530 and $570. Favor bear put spread for defined risk; long put for aggressive speculation. Exit if spot >$530 or >$570. Manage theta decay and volatility.
How to Use These Reports
This directional reflects the market close on June 25, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

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What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.