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META

Meta Platforms, Inc.Close $632.51EOD only

Max Pain

$615.00

Next expiry Jun 1, 2026

Expected Move

±$4.08

0.6% from close

Price Gap

-17.51

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Middle-high premium

P/C OI

0.45

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

8.5/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: May 29, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects META options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 29, 2026 close

META Directional Report

Analysis based on market close April 14, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from April 14, 2026. A newer directional report is available for May 26, 2026.

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Outlook

Neutral-to-bullish with an upside magnet inside $657.94–$667.04 over the next 2 days; Confidence: 7.5/10. Primary supports: large positive GEX (+$209.4M) concentrated at $660/$650/$670, heavy bullish premium flow (Net Premium $744.1M) and spot trading above max-pain cluster; conflict: max pain curve is trending lower (MPs $618→$580) which creates longer-term downside bias if pin breaks.

Confidence:

7.5 / 10

Base 7.5 (pre-computed): +GEX concentration and bullish net premium support pin; VIX 18.36 keeps short-premium viable; MP trend lower is the primary offset to short-term pin thesis.

Supports: GEX +$17.9M at $660 and +$10.4M at $650; top premium flows concentrated in $650–$700 calls (e.g. $650 net +$104.8M, $660 net +$65.6M); spot above short-dated MP nodes ($617.50–$625).
Conflicts: MP trend falling to $600ish across expirations; structural call OI wall at $700–$900 could cap rallies; longer-dated IV (May 1 ATM 47.6%) is elevated and priced for event risk.

📌Pinning gamma centered at $660 (GEX +$17.9M) — dealers will hedge toward that level intraday

💨Short-dated IV suppressed (1d ATM 23.8%, 3d 30.5%) while 17d IV jumps to 47.6% — calendar/diagonal edges present

🔁Net premium inflow $744.1M biased call-heavy — flow aligns with positive spot drift and range bias near current EM bounds

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

Normal

Vol: Normal — short-dated ATM IVs are low (1d 23.8%, 3d 30.5%) but 17d+ term shows a large jump to 47.6% (event/term premium). Low VIX (18.36) supports short-premium tactics near the pin.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

Gamma: Pinning — positive GEX $209.4M concentrated at $660/$650/$670 makes spot gravitate toward $660; dealers will buy dips and sell rallies inside EM guardrails.

Flow Regime

Bullish

Flow: Bullish — Net Premium +$744.1M and heavy call premium at $650–$700; P/C vol and OI ~0.47 indicate call-skewed institutional buys rather than protective puts.

Spot vs Max Pain

Above

Spot above MP: spot $662.49 sits well above immediate short-dated MPs (~$617.50–$625) which creates asymmetric risk if pin breaks lower; currently dealers still hedging for upside pin behavior.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — Pinning GEX persists across near expirations (concentrations at $650/$660/$670) and flow regime is consistently bullish across short-dated expirations; MP trend falling is structural but near-term gamma keeps price range-bound for 2–4 weeks, favoring 30–45 DTE for primary trades with weeklies as tactical overlays.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$657.94$667.04

Break higher requires clearing $670 GEX cluster and $667.04; failure to hold $657.94 opens lower reversion.

Next 1 week

$641.84$683.14

Close < $641.84 suggests pin roll toward MPs $625–$617.50 and increases downside acceleration.

Next 2 weeks

$607.44$717.54

Move below $607.44 (~10% down) invalidates near-term pin and flips dynamics toward trend-following selling.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $618 (2026-04-15); $600 (2026-04-17); $625 (2026-04-20)

EM guardrails: 2d $657.94/$667.04; 1w $641.84/$683.14

Support: $660.00 · $650.00 · $655.00

Resistance: $670.00 · $680.00 · $700.00

Gamma flip: ~$500.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 15,118 (24.5% below spot)

Structural: Structural call OI wall $700–$900 caps upside; structural put floor $500–$600 provides deep support for longer-dated hedges and LEAPS diagonals.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+209.4M

DEX: +78.7M shares

Gamma flip: ~$500 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 15,118 (24.5% below spot))

NTM gamma: Near-term gamma concentrated: +$17.9M at $660, +$10.4M at $650, +$8.7M at $670 — dealers will buy delta on dips toward these levels and sell delta on pops above them; if spot moves -2% (~$649) dealer hedges increase long-delta; if +2% (~$676) dealers sell delta, amplifying mean reversion inside EM.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: Avg IV 49.1% vs VIX 18.36 — index vol low; ATM short-dated IV depressed (1d 23.8%, 3d 30.5%) while 17d IV=47.6% implies event/term premium.

Term structure: Steep jump into 17d (47.6%) then falling to ~40% at 30–45d — favorable for selling the richer 17d leg into cheaper near-front or constructing calendars where you sell the 17d leg.

Skew: Notable misprice: 17d ATM 47.6% >> 3d 30.5% (≈17.1 vol-pt differential) — sell higher-IV 17d leg or build reverse calendars (sell May 1, buy nearer-dated) to capture premium.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net Premium +$744.1M, call-dominant (P/C vol ~0.47) concentrated at $650–$700 (e.g., $650 call net +$104.8M).

Directional prints: 23.8 call 662.5 OTM 2026-04-15 — META260415C00662500 huge print Vol 13,654 OI 149 (91.6x) — could be bought calls or call spreads; aligns with bullish short-dated flow. 28.2 put 640 OTM 2026-04-15 — META260415P00640000 Vol 13,092 OI 129 (101.5x) — defensive buys or structured hedges; less consistent with net call flow but may be delta-hedged protection.

Unusual: 24 call 665 OTM 2026-04-15 — META260415C00665000 Vol 17,572 OI 599 (29.3x) — large activity at ATM/near-ATM for Friday expiry consistent with pinning and dealer gamma hedging.

Risks & Catalysts

!Gamma flip deep at ~$500 — structural put concentration below $600 could accelerate selling if sustained move lower.

!Short-dated expiry cluster (2026-04-15/17) — Friday expiries create pin release risk that can spike realized vol despite low VIX.

!MP trend is falling (MPs down to ~$580 over months) — if institutional flows re-align lower, current pin will fail and short-premium loses edge.

!Elevated mid-term IV (17d 47.6%) means selling premium across that tenor exposes you to larger event risk and blowups.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Long stock	Moderate-Weak	Buy shares at market $662.49	Asymmetric downside to MP trend; requires conviction vs gamma pinning but no IV decay capture
Short stock	Weak	Not recommended — positive GEX and heavy call flow create mean-reverting environment that punishes naked short shares	Dealer hedging will buy dips; large call flow can pin and snap back
Covered call	Moderate	Sell 2026-05-01 650 call against stock (covered call)	Caps upside at strong call OI; loss of participation on rally above $700; best if you want modest yield and view pin holding
Cash-secured put / put spread	Moderate-Strong	Sell 2026-05-01 650/640 put spread (sell 650, buy 640)	Gamma flip under $600; max loss if below 640 but defined risk; aligns with positive GEX and pin near $660
Long calls	Moderate-Weak	Buy 2026-05-01 700 call (directional exposure)	High time decay and rich long-dated IV; prefer if expecting breakout above structural $700 wall
Long puts / bear put spread	Moderate	Buy 2026-05-01 625/600 put spread (buy 625, sell 600)	Pays if MP roll lower; costs due to elevated May IV; hedge against pin failure
Iron condor	Moderate-Strong	Sell 2026-04-24 640/630 put spread + sell 670/680 call spread (iron condor)	VIX spike or pin break under 630 or over 680; benefits from positive GEX and short-dated IV environment
Calendar / diagonal (sell higher-IV leg)	Strong	Sell 2026-05-01 662.5 call (ATM 47.6% IV) and buy 2026-04-15 662.5 call (ATM 23.8% IV) — selling the higher-IV longer-dated leg makes this a reverse calendar	Reverse calendar risks if front expiry moves violently; must manage gamma close to the short-dated long leg and monitor front-day pinning dynamics
PMCC / LEAPS diagonal	Moderate-Strong	Buy 2026-07-17 650 LEAPS call, sell 2026-05-01 675 call (diagonal)	Captures term-structure steepness and funds long exposure; exposed to IV moves and requires margin

Top Plays

Sell 650/640 put spread (17d)

Sell 2026-05-01 650/640 put spread

Defined-risk short put spread sits inside dealer pin at $660–$650 capturing heavy call-biased flow and positive GEX; benefits from May IV elevation if you sell lower-IV relative to long leg.

Credit: $0.60-$1.20

Max loss: $9.40

BE: $649.40

Mgmt: Take profit at 40–60% of max credit; cut if spot < $645 or VIX >30

Traders wanting defined-risk income aligned with bullish pin

Iron Condor across EM (10d)

Sell 2026-04-24 640/630 put spread + 670/680 call spread

Short-premium iron condor plays the 1-week EM bounds and dealer pinning; positive GEX supports range containment between $641.84–$683.14.

Credit: $0.80-$1.60

Max loss: $8.20

BE: Lower BE ~639.20 Upper BE ~681.60

Mgmt: Close at 50–70% profit or if spot crosses either short wing ($630 or $680)

Accounts comfortable with defined risk and tactical weekly income

30–45D Reverse Calendar (sell higher-IV long leg)

Sell 2026-05-01 662.5 call (ATM 47.6% IV) and buy 2026-04-15 662.5 call (ATM 23.8% IV) — reverse calendar

Exploits the 17d IV spike by selling the richer May 1 leg and buying the cheap front-day; benefits from pin stability and mean reversion while collecting elevated mid-term premium.

Credit: $1.00-$2.50

Max loss: Limited to large short-leg assignment/gamma exposure if unmanaged

BE: $662.50

Mgmt: Take profit when front leg decays >50% of short premium or roll the short May 1 leg out if spot drifts >$10 from 662.5

Traders seeking multi-week edge and willing to manage front-day gamma and expiry risk

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFIf spot tags $660 and holds 30 minutes → Sell 2026-05-01 650/640 put spread

IFIf spot trades into $657.94 (lower 2d EM) and IV compressed (1d ATM <25%) → Sell 2026-04-24 640/630 put spread as weekly iron condor leg

IFIf spot rallies to $675 and fails to close above $680 in 2 sessions → Sell 2026-04-24 670/680 call spread (short call spread)

Adjustment Triggers

ADJIf VIX spikes >25 and spot <$645 → Buy protective 2026-05-01 625/600 put spread to hedge short premium positions

ADJIf front vs mid IV differential (May1 vs Apr15) narrows by >10 vol-pts → Close or roll reverse calendar short May1 leg to next-week expiry

Exit Triggers

EXITIf short premium P/L hits 60–70% of max profit → Close the position to realize gains (e.g., close iron condor or put spread)

EXITIf spot closes below $641.84 (1-week EM lower bound) on daily basis → Exit all short premium and switch to directional protection (buy puts or convert to bear put spreads)

Tactical Summary

Primary thesis: multi-week pin/range around $660 driven by strong positive GEX and heavy call flows; invalidation is sustained close below $641.84 which signals MP roll-down toward $600s; regime favors short premium and defined-risk credit spreads (put spreads, iron condors) and reverse calendars selling the richer May 1 IV for multi-week edge.

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This directional reflects the market close on April 14, 2026.

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If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.