Home Options METAReports

META

Meta Platforms, Inc.Close $632.51EOD only

Max Pain

$615.00

Next expiry Jun 1, 2026

Expected Move

±$4.08

0.6% from close

Price Gap

-17.51

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Middle-high premium

P/C OI

0.45

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

8.5/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: May 29, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects META options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 29, 2026 close

META Directional Report

Analysis based on market close April 13, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from April 13, 2026. A newer directional report is available for May 26, 2026.

View latest report

Outlook

Neutral-to-bullish with a short-term upside magnet to the near-term pins around $635 driven by strong dealer pinning; Confidence: 8.5/10.

Confidence:

8.5 / 10

Base 5; +2 GEX/flow alignment; +1 GEX positive pinning; +0.5 low VIX (19.1) — no imminent catalyst missed.

Supports: Large positive GEX +$223.1M concentrated at $635 (near spot), net premium +$217.4M, bullish flow into calls ($630/$635/$625 call heavy).
Conflicts: Max pain schedule trending lower (MPs at $620→$600 across expiries) and average IV elevated at longer-dates (ATM ~42.9% 18d) which could compress if tape fades.

📌**Pinning**: +$58.5M GEX at $635 is the dominant short-term magnet (0.1% from spot).

💨**Bullish flow**: Net premium +$217.4M with top call flow concentrated at $630/$635/$625 supporting squeeze risk to upside.

⚠️**Max Pain vs MP trend**: MPs at $620/$605/$600 on near expiries create downside gravity beyond immediate pin; MP trend is falling.

🧭**Gamma flip**: ~ $500 well below spot — dealers long gamma here, favors mean reversion within expected moves.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

Normal

IV labeled Normal; near-term IV low (2–11d ATM 25.8–30.7%) while 18–46d IV jumps to ~42–38%, indicating event-ish term steepening and opportunity for calendars.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

Pinning: GEX +$223.1M with largest concentration +$58.5M at $635; matters because dealer delta-hedges will buy into dips and sell rallies around that pin.

Flow Regime

Bullish

Bullish: Net premium +$217.4M, P/C vol 0.64 and P/C OI 0.48 show call-biased flow supporting upside runs into short-gamma bars.

Spot vs Max Pain

Above

Spot $634.53 sits above nearest MP $620 (4/13) creating short-term upside magnet to $635 but structural MP trend lower creates asymmetric risk if pin breaks.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — Pinning and positive GEX concentrated at near-term strikes ($635, $632.5, $630) persist across next two expirations and net flow + term-structure steepening out to 18–46d support a 30–45 DTE tactical horizon (multi-week).

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$622.88$646.18

Sustain above $635 keeps dealers selling into strength; break below $622.88 will unwind pinning.

Next 1 week

$614.11$654.96

Close below $620 accelerates move toward $600 MP; sustained bid keeps price toward $654.96.

Next 2 weeks

$585.38$683.68

Up breakout requires absorption of large call OI and continuation in market leadership (XLK/QQQ).

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $620 (2026-04-13); $605 (2026-04-15); $600 (2026-04-17)

EM guardrails: 2d $622.88/$646.18; 1w $614.11/$654.96

Support: $625.00 · $620.00 · $610.00

Resistance: $646.18 · $650.00 · $700.00

Gamma flip: ~$500.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 15,146 (21.2% below spot)

Structural: Call OI wall from $700–$900 caps large rallies; put floor $500–$600 is deep structural support if index shock pushes META toward gamma flip ~$500.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+223.1M

DEX: +70.4M shares

Gamma flip: ~$500 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 15,146 (21.2% below spot))

NTM gamma: Massive near-term positive gamma concentrated at $635 (+$58.5M), $632.50 (+$6.7M) and $630 (+$6.1M) — dealers will buy dips and sell rallies inside the pin; a ±2% move (~$622-$647) will flip hedging from buying to incremental selling as spots traverse concentrated call clusters.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: Avg IV 45.9% vs VIX 19.12; near-term ATM IV very low (2d–11d ATM 25.8–30.7%) and long-dated IV rich (~42.9% at 18d), implying cheap short-dated vol and expensive 18–46d vol.

Term structure: Steepening 7–46d: 7d ATM 27.7% → 18d 42.9% then settles ~38–36% out to 66d — good calendar/diagonal setups.

Skew: Notable cheapness at 2–11d vs richness 18–46d; buy near-term tails or sell longer-dated premium via calendars (sell higher-IV leg).

Flow Analysis

Net premium: + $217.4M bullish; call-heavy top flows at $630/$635/$625 with large one-day call premium lines.

Directional prints: 7.4 call 632.5 ITM 2026-04-13 — META260413C00632500 heavy ITM call print Vol=26,325 OI=1,064 (24.7x) — could be buys or roll/sell-to-open; consistent with market-wide bullish flow it's likely dealer/offload into buying pressure. 12.3 call 630 ITM 2026-04-13 — META260413C00630000 large print Vol=46,380 OI=2,056 (22.6x) supporting short-term call demand or hedged structures.

Unusual: 9.2 put 627.5 OTM 2026-04-13 — META260413P00627500 put print Vol=16,243 OI=448 (36.3x) — cheap put prints may represent selling or hedged rotations but low IV suggests aggressive positioning rather than pure protection.

Risks & Catalysts

!Gamma pin fails and spot closes < $622.88 → accelerated drift to MP $620 then $600.

!Earnings (4/29) are 2+ weeks out but high multi-week IV could compress into other catalysts — vol crush risk for long vol positions.

!Macro risk: a broad-tech reversal (QQQ/XLK turn) would remove dealer bid and steepen downside; VIX >25 would hurt short-premium setups.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Long stock	Moderate-Weak	Buy shares at market	Large capital requirement; exposed to MP trend toward $600.
Short stock	Weak	Short shares at market	GEX positive makes sudden mean reversion likely; heavy dealer buying into dips.
Covered call	Moderate	Sell 2026-05-01 650C vs long stock	Capped upside at call strike; assignment if gap above $650.
Cash-secured put / put spread	Moderate-Strong	Sell 2026-04-20 625/615 put spread	Pin failure below $620 creates loss; limited risk but needs margin.
Long calls	Moderate-Weak	Buy 2026-04-20 650C	Time decay and potential IV drop; expensive if short-term rally stalls.
Long puts / bear put spread	Moderate-Weak	Buy 2026-04-20 610/600 put spread	MP bias and positive GEX make sharp downside less likely short-term.
Iron condor	Moderate-Strong	Sell 2026-04-20 615P/605P x 650C/660C	VIX spike or break of $622.88/$646.18 blows wings; good short-premium edge given positive GEX and VIX<22.
Calendar / diagonal	Strong	Sell 2026-05-01 635C, buy 2026-04-20 635C (reverse calendar — sold longer-dated higher-IV leg)	Sold higher-IV longer-dated leg (42.9%) and bought lower-IV near leg (27.7%) — requires active management against gap risk.
PMCC / LEAPS diagonal	Moderate-Strong	Buy stock + sell 2026-05-01 670C (covered call with 18d short call)	Caps upside; theta favorable short-term given rich 18d IV vs near-term.
Buy-wings (directional defined risk)	Moderate	Buy 2026-05-01 610/585 put fly (defined risk tail protection)	Costly if downside stalls; protects heavy long exposure.

Top Plays

Calendar/Diagonal (reverse calendar — sell longer-dated high-IV leg)

Sell 2026-05-01 635C, buy 2026-04-20 635C

Sell the higher-IV 18d leg (42.9%) and buy the lower-IV near leg (27.7%) to capture theta and term-structure rich-to-cheap differential while remaining net short longer-dated vol.

Credit: $1.00-$2.50

Max loss: Limited to net debit if misfilled or to width if structured as diagonal with protection

BE: Depends on net fill; manage to target realized roll-down

Mgmt: Take 50-70% of max profit if time decay favors short leg; cut if spot breaks <$622.88 or >$654.96 or if IV(18d) drops >10 vol pts.

Traders wanting defined-risk income and carry with active management.

Short put spread (collect pin premium)

Sell 2026-04-20 625/615 put spread

Leverages positive GEX pin at $635 and near-term call-dominant flow; defined risk below MP $620.

Credit: $1.00-$1.80

Max loss: $9.00

BE: $624.00

Mgmt: Take profit at 50-70% of max credit; cut if spot closes < $620 or IV jumps >35%.

Defined-risk income traders avoiding assignment.

Iron Condor (short premium inside EM bounds)

Sell 2026-04-20 615P/605P x 650C/660C iron condor

Fits positive GEX/range regime and 2-week EM guardrails $614.11–$654.96 — sells into dealers' short-gamma environment.

Credit: $1.20-$2.50

Max loss: Wing width less credit (approx $8.80–$9.80)

BE: Lower BE ~611.2, Upper BE ~652.2 (depends on fill)

Mgmt: Take 50-60% profit; buy wings back if spot closes outside $622.88–$646.18 or VIX >25.

Accounts aiming to harvest high-probability short premium.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFIf spot touches $635 and holds 30 minutes above → Sell 2026-04-20 625/615 put spread

IFIf spot trades $635 and IV term spread (18d vs 7d) >14 vol pts → Sell 2026-05-01 635C and buy 2026-04-20 635C (reverse calendar)

IFIf spot rallies to $650 and fails to close > $650 on 30-min basis → Sell 2026-04-20 650C/660C call vertical as part of iron condor

Exit Triggers

EXITIf VIX >25 or IV(18d) rises +10 vol pts intraday → Exit all short premium positions

EXITIf position reaches 50-70% of maximum profit → Take profit and reduce exposure

Tactical Summary

Primary thesis: short-premium/range bias around pin at $635 with multi-week duration; invalidation: sustained close below $622.88 (2d EM) or sustained break under $620 MP; regime favors short premium (iron condors, put spreads) and reverse-calendar (sell higher-IV longer-dated leg) — Top plays: reverse calendar (sell 5/01 635C, buy 4/20 635C), 625/615 put spread, 615/605x650/660 iron condor.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on April 13, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.