ThetaOwl

META

Meta Platforms, Inc.Close $629.86EOD only
Max Pain
$600.00
Next expiry Apr 13, 2026
Expected Move
±$5.45
0.9% from close
Price Gap
-29.86
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
34
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
0.47
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
6.5/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: Apr 10, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects META options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Apr 10, 2026 close
META Directional Report
Analysis based on market close April 6, 2026

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from April 6, 2026. A newer directional report is available for April 10, 2026.

View latest report

Outlook

Neutral with upside magnet to $595. Confidence: 5.5/10. GEX +$36.9M pins near spot, but net premium -$117.1M and mixed flow signal institutional selling. Spot above max pain adds gravity.

Confidence:
5.5 / 10
base 5; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -1 GEX/flow contradict; +0.5 spot 1.9% from MP
Supports: GEX +$36.9M (pinning), near-term put OI clusters $520-$555, max pain $562-$572
Conflicts: Net premium -$117.1M bearish, P/C vol 0.84 neutral, spot above MP
📌GEX pinning near $575-$595
💸Net premium -$117.1M signals institutional selling

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
Normal
IV 46.5% vs VIX N/A — normal vol regime
Gamma Regime
Pinning
GEX +$36.9M concentrated near spot, pinning regime
Flow Regime
Mixed
Net prem -$117.1M with P/C 0.84, mixed flow regime
Spot vs Max Pain
Above
Spot $573.02 above MP $562-$572
Thesis duration: Multi-week — Max pain ladder flat ~$562 across expirations, GEX sign stable positive, flow regime consistent

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days
$559.27$586.77
GEX pinning dominates; <$559.27 invalidates
Next 1 week
$550.97$595.07
Pin release widens range; >$595.07 breaks resistance
Next 2 weeks
$535.70$610.35
Flow supports drift; <$535.70 breaks support

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $562 (2026-04-06); $570 (2026-04-08); $572 (2026-04-10)
EM guardrails: 2d $559.27/$586.77; 1w $550.97/$595.07
Support: $560.00 · $555.00 · $550.00
Resistance: $595.00 · $600.00 · $610.00
Gamma flip: ~$500.00Approx — based on put OI concentration of 15,134 (12.7% below spot)
Structural: Call OI wall $700-$800 caps upside; put floor $500-$500 distant

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+36.9M

DEX: +61.6M shares

Gamma flip: ~$500 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 15,134 (12.7% below spot))

NTM gamma: Call gamma $595/$585; put gamma $555/$560

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV 46.5% vs VIX N/A — no comparison

Term structure: Humped — 4/8 41.8% > 4/13 36.4% > 5/1 46.8%

Skew: 4/8 vs 4/13 ~5.4 vol-pt differential

Flow Analysis

Net premium: -$117.1M bearish; P/C vol 0.84 neutral

Directional prints: put 575 ITM 2026-04-08 — vol 7,119 vs OI 120 (59.3x) — likely sold for premium call 580 OTM 2026-04-08 — vol 6,171 vs OI 247 (25.0x) — likely bought for upside

Unusual: 44.2 put 552.5 OTM 2026-04-10 — vol 6,474 vs OI 167 (38.8x) — likely sold for premium

Risks & Catalysts

!Gamma flip ~$500 distant but break <$560 accelerates selling
!Earnings 4/29 adds vol risk
!Net premium -$117.1M signals institutional selling pressure
!VIX unknown adds macro uncertainty

Strategy Viability

StrategyEdgeBest SetupPrimary Risk
Iron condorModerate$555/$560P x $595/$600C 4/13GEX positive but VIX unknown
CSP / put spreadModerate-StrongSell $560/$555 put spread 4/13Break <$555
Long callsModerate-WeakBuy $595 call 4/13IV 36.4% high, pinning resistance
Long puts / bear put spreadsWeakAvoidGEX positive, net premium bearish but pinning dominates
Calendar/diagonalModerate-StrongSell 4/8 $595 call (IV 39.9%), buy 4/13 $595 call (IV 34.2%)Pin holds, +5.7pt vol edge
PMCC / LEAPS diagonalModerateBuy 2027-03-19 $500 call, sell 4/13 $595 callLong-dated IV 41.0% high
Covered callModerate-StrongSell $595 call 4/13Upside capped at resistance
Cash-secured put / put spreadModerate-StrongSell $560 put 4/13Break <$560
Long stockModerateBuy sharesNet premium bearish
Short stockWeakAvoidGEX positive pinning

Top Plays

#1
Put Spread
Sell $560/$555 put spread 4/13
Defined-risk premium below pin with GEX support.
Credit: $0.80-$1.20
Max loss: $4.20
BE: $559.20
Mgmt: Close at 60-70% max profit; stop if spot <$555.
Defined-risk premium collection near support.
#2
Calendar Spread
Sell 4/8 $595 call, buy 4/13 $595 call
Sell high IV near-term, buy lower IV farther out for +5.7pt edge.
Credit: $0.15-$0.25
Max loss: $2.00
Mgmt: Close when near-term expires; adjust if spot >$600.
Vol decay capture with pinning upside.
#3
Covered Call
Sell $595 call 4/13
Generate income with upside capped at resistance; extra time improves premium vs weekly.
Credit: $2.86-$3.35
Max loss: unlimited
Mgmt: Roll up/out if spot approaches $595; take profit at 50%.
Shareholders wanting income with defined exit.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers
IFSpot tags $560, holds 30 minSell $560/$555 put spread 4/13
IFSpot tags $595, IV >40%Sell $595 call 4/13
Exit Triggers
EXITSpot <$555, volume spikesExit all short premium positions
EXITSpot >$610, breaks EM boundTake profit on covered calls

Tactical Summary

Neutral pinning with upside magnet to $595. Invalidation: <$555. Regime favors short premium near support. Top plays: put spread for defined risk, calendar for vol edge, covered call for shareholders.

Read the Directional analysis for META for 2026-04-06. Each report is a market-close snapshot with regime read, key levels, and strategy context that translates options positioning into an actionable setup.