base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -1 spot 14.4% from MP; +1 VIX 16
Term structure: Front-month skew extreme: put IV 541% 0DTE, then flattens ~70-80%
Spot vs MP: Above
GEX regime: Pinning ($+21.2M)
Gamma flip: ~$340.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 22,654 (12.6% below spot)
OI concentrations: Put OI floor $220-$340 (55k+), call wall $460 (43k). Max pain pins $340, $348, $325
#1Put credit spread
Sell 2026-07-17 $370.00/$360.00 put spread
Sell $370 put, buy $360 put for net credit; profits if LRCX stays above $370 at expiry.
Mgmt: Exit if spot closes below $344 invalidation; take profit at 50% max gain or hold to expiry.
#2Short strangle
Sell 2026-07-17 $370.00 put + sell $410.00 call
Sell $370 put and $410 call to collect high premium; profits within wide range.
Mgmt: Roll or hedge if spot approaches $370 or $410; monitor gamma risk near max pain.
#3Call calendar
Sell 2026-07-10 $400.00 call / buy 2026-08-21 $400.00 call
Sell near-term $400 call, buy later-dated $400 call; benefits from declining near-term IV.
Mgmt: Monitor IV skew; exit short leg before earnings to avoid gap risk; let long leg run.
!Spot 14.4% above nearest max pain ($340), potential gravitation pull
!High put IV skew suggests tail risk; monitor for spot breakdown