thetaOwl
HomeOptionsLRCXReports

LRCX

Lam Research CorporationClose $401.82EOD only
Max Pain
$370.00
Next expiry Jun 26, 2026
Expected Move
±$14.70
3.7% from close
Price Gap
-31.82
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
16
Low premium
P/C OI
1.06
Balanced positioning
Consensus
7.0/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 25, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects LRCX options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 25, 2026 close
LRCX Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close June 26, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Earnings Verdict

Earnings 33 days out; 100% beat rate but IV high; flow mixed with downside hedging and call walls.

Confidence:
8.5 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); +0.5 VIX 18
Most important: Heavy put activity at $370/$360 for next week suggests earnings hedging; call OI at $400-$460 caps upside.
📊100% beat rate but small sample; don't rely solely.
🛡️Heavy put buying on $370/$360 suggests downside hedging.
🔥Call OI wall at $400-$460 caps near-term upside.
📌Gamma pinning at $370 may limit large moves.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Mixed
Spot vs MP
Above
Gamma flip: ~$340.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 22,686 (10.3% below spot)

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-07-29 (33 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-07-02 (6d): ±$31.47 (8.3%)
  • 2026-07-10 (14d): ±$47.08 (12.4%)
  • 2026-07-17 (21d): ±$57.88 (15.3%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Flat to slightly inverted: 1w IV ~65%, 3w IV ~64%.

Crush estimate: Post-earnings IV crush ~30-40%; settling to ~40%.

Skew: Put/call OI balanced; put walls $240-$360, call walls $400-$460; moderate downside skew.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 100% (5/5 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: N/A - historical move sizes not provided; 100% beat rate suggests upside surprise.

Directional bias: Neutral: 100% beat rate but recent QQQ weakness and heavy puts caution.

Key Levels

1$340.00 gamma flip
2EM guardrails: 1w $347.61/$410.56
3Max pain pins: $370 (2026-06-26); $355 (2026-07-02); $350 (2026-07-10)

Flow Highlights

Unusual put buying on LRCX 2026-07-02 $370/$360 Puts, vol/OI >13.

Aggressive weekly downside hedging ahead of earnings.

Call accumulation at 2026-07-02 $400/$430 Calls, vol/OI ~2.3.

Bullish bets at $400 resistance; upside speculation.

Strategies

Earnings Short Strangle
Sell 2026-07-31 $360.00 put + sell $400.00 call
Credit: $54.18-$66.22
Max loss: Unlimited
Max gain: $66.22
BE: 293.78 / 466.22
Trigger: Close before earnings to avoid gap risk; monitor for early assignment Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: short_put: Volume below 5.
Only eligible candidate; captures high IV premium with expected pinning near 370/400
Outperforms: Sells OTM 360 put and 400 call to collect elevated IV premium ahead of earnings
Underperforms: Break outside short strikes invalidates short-vol thesis.

Risk Assessment

!IV crush may negate long premium positions.
!Directional uncertainty despite 100% beat rate; tech momentum weak.
!Gamma pinning at $370 could trap spot.
!Heavy OI at $400 calls and $360 puts create magnet effects.

What to Watch

?Price action around $370 max pain and $385 resistance.
?2026-07-02 expiration; high OI at $370 put and $400 call.
?Earnings date 2026-07-29; IV expansion over next weeks.
?Semiconductor sector news and QQQ performance.
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on June 26, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.