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LRCX

Lam Research CorporationClose $366.81EOD only
Max Pain
$250.00
Next expiry Jun 18, 2026
Expected Move
±$15.27
4.2% from close
Price Gap
-116.81
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
100
High premium
P/C OI
1.14
Slightly put-heavy
Consensus
6.0/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 12, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects LRCX options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 12, 2026 close
LRCX Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close June 15, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Earnings Verdict

LRCX 44d out, 100% beat rate vs heavy put flow. High IV but theta risk. Conflicting signals.

Confidence:
8 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -1 spot 44.0% from MP; +1 VIX 16
Most important: Tension between bullish history and bearish positioning; long premium risky.
🛡️Heavy put flow suggests hedging, not directional
📊100% beat rate over 5 quarters is rare

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Mixed
Spot vs MP
Above
Gamma flip: ~$290.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 22,917 (25.4% below spot)

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-07-29 (44 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-06-18 (3d): ±$23.25 (6.0%)
  • 2026-06-26 (11d): ±$39.62 (10.2%)
  • 2026-07-02 (17d): ±$47.68 (12.3%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Steep contango: 70-75% short-term to 84%+ back-month

Crush estimate: 30-40% IV crush post-earnings

Skew: Put skew elevated, deep OTM puts at 84% IV

Historical Context

Beat rate: 100% (5/5 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: N/A; 100% beat rate suggests upside but magnitude varies

Directional bias: Slightly bullish historically, but current flow bearish

Key Levels

1$290.00 gamma flip
2EM guardrails: 2d $365.67/$412.17
3Max pain pins: $270 (2026-06-18); $320 (2026-06-26); $325 (2026-07-02)

Flow Highlights

Unusual Aug21 $340 put bought 13x OI

Bearish bet on >44% downside by Aug

Dec18 $140 put 6.2x OI

Tail hedge for catastrophic drop

Strategies

Short Strangle
Sell 2026-07-24 $370.00 put + sell $410.00 call
Credit: $49.46-$60.45
Max loss: Unlimited
Max gain: $60.45
BE: 309.55 / 470.45
Trigger: Close before earnings or on IV spike; use stop loss. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: short_put: Open interest below 25.
Highest credit capture from steep contango and high IV; suitable for conflicting signals.
Outperforms: Sell OTM put and call to profit from time decay and IV contraction.
Underperforms: Break outside short strikes invalidates short-vol thesis.
Iron Condor
Sell 2026-07-24 $370.00/$365.00 put wing and $400.00/$410.00 call wing
Credit: $4.79-$5.86
Max loss: $4.14
Max gain: $5.86
BE: 364.14 / 405.86
Trigger: Adjust wings if spot approaches; close before earnings. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: short_put: Open interest below 25.
Defined risk neutral play exploiting high IV and theta decay.
Outperforms: Sell inner strikes, buy outer wings for limited risk and profit from range-bound move.
Underperforms: Move outside short strikes invalidates range thesis.
Long Strangle
Buy 2026-06-18 $380.00 put + buy $392.50 call
Debit: $15.82-$19.33
Max loss: $19.33
Max gain: Unlimited
BE: 360.67 / 411.83
Trigger: Use stop loss to limit theta decay; exit on IV crush.
Only candidate with good liquidity; captures potential move from divergence between history and positioning.
Outperforms: Buy OTM put and call to profit from large post-earnings move.
Underperforms: Insufficient realized move reduces long-strangle edge.
Long straddle
Buy 2026-06-18 $390.00 put + buy $390.00 call
Debit: $20.93-$25.58
Max loss: $25.58
Max gain: Unlimited
BE: 364.42 / 415.58
High IV but conflicting signals; straddle profits from any big move.
Outperforms: Buy straddle for large earnings move.
Underperforms: Under-realized move and IV crush hurt long-vol thesis.

Risk Assessment

!Earnings 44 days out; theta decay significant
!Bearish put flow indicates downside risk
!VIX 16 moderate but IV high; crush potential

What to Watch

?Spot vs $370 put wall support
?Gamma flip at $290 for acceleration
?Earnings beat streak vs put flow divergence
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on June 15, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.