Home Options LLYReports

LLY

Eli Lilly and CompanyClose $1018.87EOD only

Max Pain

$975.00

Next expiry May 22, 2026

Expected Move

±$24.27

2.4% from close

Price Gap

-43.87

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Low premium

P/C OI

1.23

Slightly put-heavy

Consensus

4/4

Partial coverage

Published snapshot: May 20, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects LLY options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 20, 2026 close

LLY Directional Report

Analysis based on market close March 31, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Neutral with a slight bullish bias, anchored by spot at max pain ($920). Confidence: 5/10. The market is pinned near-term but shows conflicting internal signals: strong bullish flow is offset by negative GEX, suggesting underlying volatility and a lack of dealer support for a sustained rally.

Confidence:

5 / 10

Base 5; +1 for spot at max pain providing a strong near-term anchor; -1 for GEX/flow contradiction (bullish flow vs. negative GEX).

Supports: Spot at $920 max pain (pinning), Net premium +$71.2M (bullish), P/C vol ratio 0.37 (call dominance).
Conflicts: GEX -$2.7M (trending/volatile regime), P/C OI ratio 1.35 (structural put skew), falling max pain trend.

⚖️Spot pinned at $920 max pain for 3/27 expiry.

🔥Net premium +$71.2M is overwhelmingly bullish.

⚠️Negative GEX (-$2.7M) warns of dealer hedging amplifying moves.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

Normal

IV 48.4% is high, but term structure is normal — selling premium has an edge on vol, but negative GEX adds risk.

Gamma Regime

Trending

GEX -$2.7M indicates a trending/volatile regime; dealer hedging will amplify price moves, not suppress them.

Flow Regime

Bullish

Net premium +$71.2M with P/C vol 0.37 shows clear institutional call buying and bullish positioning.

Spot vs Max Pain

Spot at $920, precisely at the 3/27 max pain — strong near-term pinning force.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — Flow regime (bullish) and GEX sign (negative) are consistent across expirations; max pain ladder shows a drift lower over time ($920 → $890), supporting a multi-week directional thesis.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$877.67$961.87

Max pain dominates; break below $877.67 or above $961.87 signals end of pin.

Next 1 week

$861.17$978.37

Falling max pain trend ($920 → $905) and negative GEX suggest drift lower toward $905 support.

Next 2 weeks

$849.35$990.20

Max pain for 6/18 is $890; negative GEX and OI put skew support a gradual downward pull.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $920 (2026-03-27); $905 (2026-04-02); $920 (2026-04-10)

EM guardrails: 2d $877.67/$961.87; 1w $861.17/$978.37

Support: $400.00 · $790.00 · $600.00

Resistance: $1000.00 · $1100.00

Gamma flip: ~$400.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 3,177

Structural: **Call OI wall $1000-$1100** is a major cap. **Put floor $400-$820** is deep and structural, representing long-term hedging, not near-term support.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $-2.7M

DEX: +7.0M shares

Gamma flip: ~$400 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 3,177)

NTM gamma: Gamma flip ~$400 is far below spot, indicating minimal near-the-money gamma. Dealer hedging is sparse near spot, so moves will be less dampened. A move ±2% will not trigger significant new dealer flows near-term.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV 48.4% is elevated — premium selling is attractive, but negative GEX increases risk of large moves.

Term structure: **Steep front-month decay**: 4/2 IV 52.2% → 4/10 IV 45.3% (~7 vol-pt drop). Hump at 5/1 (49.7%) likely pricing April earnings.

Skew: **Front-week calendar spread edge**: Sell high IV (52.2%) in 4/2, buy lower IV (45.3%) in 4/10.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: +$71.2M bullish; P/C vol 0.37 (extreme call volume), P/C OI 1.35 (structural put OI).

Directional prints: $1000C 4/10 vol 1,975 vs OI 183 (10.8x) — likely **bought calls** as bullish bet or hedge. $1050C 4/10 vol 4,180 vs OI 227 (18.4x) — similar bullish/hedging activity. Interpretation favors bought calls given net premium direction.

Unusual: $1100C 4/2 vol 1,305 at IV 75.0% — extremely rich vol for a weekly OTM call; could be a volatility sale or a low-probability lottery ticket.

Risks & Catalysts

!**Gamma flip at ~$400 is irrelevant near-term**; the real risk is the lack of gamma near spot allowing for accelerated moves.

!**April 30 earnings** creates a volatility event; the IV hump at 5/1 expiry will crush post-event.

!**Contradiction between bullish flow and negative GEX** may resolve with a sharp, volatile move in either direction.

!**Structural put OI at $400-$820** indicates long-term bearish hedging that could become relevant on a major breakdown.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Long stock	Moderate-Weak	Buy shares at $920.	Negative GEX and falling max pain trend provide headwinds; better to sell premium against shares.
Short stock	Moderate	Short shares at $920.	Strong bullish flow and spot at max pain create near-term pin risk; consider pairing with a call.
Covered call	Moderate-Strong	Own stock, sell $960C or $1000C (4/17 or later).	Stock drifts lower (max pain trend); call premium offsets some loss.
Cash-secured put / put spread	Moderate	Sell $890P (4/10) or $890/$870 put spread (4/17).	Negative GEX increases odds of hitting strike; defined-risk spread preferred.
Long calls	Moderate-Weak	Buy $940C or $960C (4/17).	High IV (41.7%) and negative GEX make directional calls expensive; needs a strong bullish catalyst.
Long puts / bear put spread	Moderate-Strong	Buy $900/$880 put spread (4/17).	Aligns with negative GEX and falling max pain trend; defined risk.
Iron condor	Weak	e.g., $890/$870P x $960/$980C (4/17).	GEX negative AND IV > 28 → mechanically weak rating. Negative GEX regime favors directional plays, not range-bound.
Calendar/diagonal	Moderate-Strong	Reverse Calendar: Sell $920C (4/2, IV 52.2%), Buy $920C (4/10, IV 45.3%).	Pin breaks and spot moves sharply; best if spot stays near $920.
PMCC / LEAPS diagonal	Moderate	Buy $850C (1/15/27, IV 41.0%), Sell $960C (4/17, IV 41.7%).	Long-dated bullish thesis challenged by near-term bearish drift; capital intensive.

Top Plays

Bear Put Spread

Buy $900 Put / Sell $880 Put, exp 4/17.

Directly expresses the multi-week bearish drift thesis (negative GEX, falling max pain). Defined risk is crucial in a volatile regime.

Debit: $6.50-$8.50

Max loss: $650.00

BE: $893.50

Mgmt: Take profit at 50-70% of max profit ($3.25-$4.55 credit). Exit if spot closes above $920 (max pain).

Traders seeking a defined-risk bearish play aligned with the GEX and max pain trends.

Reverse Call Calendar

Sell $920 Call (4/2) / Buy $920 Call (4/10).

Capitalizes on the steep front-week IV decay (52.2% vs 45.3%) while being delta-neutral. Profits if spot stays pinned near $920 through this Friday.

Credit: $2.00-$3.50

Max loss: N/A

BE: Complex; best at pin.

Mgmt: Close for a profit if IV of short leg collapses post-4/2 expiry. Manage delta if spot breaks decisively from $920.

Volatility traders looking for a non-directional play on the near-term pin and rich front-week vol.

Covered Call (30+ DTE)

Own stock, sell the $1000 Call exp 5/15.

The 45 DTE aligns with the multi-week thesis. The $1000 strike is at the major call OI wall, providing strong resistance. Collects rich premium (IV ~47%) while participating in any upside up to $1000. The extra time improves risk/reward by providing more premium to buffer against a bearish drift and a higher probability of the call expiring OTM.

Credit: $25.00-$30.00

Max loss: Unlimited below stock cost basis

BE: Stock purchase price minus credit received.

Mgmt: Consider rolling up and out if stock approaches $1000. Close if bearish thesis strengthens (spot breaks below $890).

Stock owners looking to generate income and hedge against a potential downtrend; defined-risk traders via buy-write.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFSpot breaks and closes below $905 (next weekly max pain) → Enter bear put spread (e.g., $890/$870, 4/17).

IFSpot rallies to test $1000 (call OI wall) with IV > 50% → Sell a call credit spread (e.g., $1000/$1010, 4/17).

Exit Triggers

EXITFor bear put spread, spot closes above $920 → Exit trade; pin and bullish flow are overriding bearish signals.

EXITVIX drops >5 points and LLY IV < 40% → Take profits on all short premium positions (e.g., covered calls).

Tactical Summary

Primary thesis: Neutral-to-bearish multi-week drift toward $890, anchored by a near-term pin at $920. The regime favors directional plays and volatility decay strategies over range-bound trades. Top plays: 1) Bear put spread for defined-risk bearish exposure, 2) Reverse calendar to harvest rich front-week vol, 3) 45 DTE covered call for stock owners to generate income against resistance. Invalidation for the bearish drift is a close above $920.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on March 31, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.