Earnings Verdict
Earnings expected around 4/30, 30 days out. IV is elevated, creating a strong crush setup. Historical data shows LLY consistently beats EPS estimates and tends to gap up, favoring directional call strategies or defined-risk premium selling.
base 5; +1 strong historical beat rate; +0.5 clear IV kink confirming date; -0.5 high absolute IV (48%)
Most important: IV term structure shows a sharp kink at the 5/01 expiration (49.7% vs 43.6% before), confirming earnings are priced for that week. The 4/10 expiration (45.3%) is the first unaffected post-earnings expiry.
📅Earnings inferred for week of 4/30, likely before 5/01 expiration. Confirm official date when released.
📈Flow regime is extremely bullish (P/C 0.37). Consensus is positioned for a beat and rally.
⚠️Gamma regime is 'Trending' (negative GEX). This can exacerbate moves in either direction post-earnings.
Regime Classification
Vol Regime
Normal (IV 48%)
Gamma Regime
Trending (GEX $-2.7M — pro-cyclical)
Flow Regime
Bullish (net prem +$71.2M, P/C 0.37)
Spot vs MP
At max pain $920
Gamma flip: ~$400.00 — Gamma flip ~$400 is far below spot, indicating dealer hedging is minimal near current price. GEX negative suggests dealers amplify moves (pro-cyclical).
Earnings Overview
Next earnings: 2026-04-30 (30 days)inferred (IV kink at 5/01, explicit EPS est for 4/30)
Expected moves:
- 5/01 (31d): ±$111.00 (12.1%)
- 4/24 (24d): ±$84.30 (9.2%)
IV Setup
Term structure: Sharp kink at 5/01 expiration (49.7% IV) vs 43.6% on 4/24 and 45.3% on 4/10. Elevated IV isolated to earnings week.
Crush estimate: ~15-20 vol pts post-earnings, back to ~30-35% range (aligning with 4/10 expiry IV of 45.3% for a 10d hold).
Skew: Flow is overwhelmingly bullish (P/C 0.37, net prem +$71M). Unusual activity in OTM calls ($1050, $1100) suggests large bullish bets.
Historical Context
Beat rate: 75% (3/4 quarters, with one small miss)
Avg move vs expected: Data incomplete for price moves, but EPS surprise magnitude is large: +9%, +19%, +13% in last three beats.
Directional bias: Insufficient price history provided, but strong EPS beats suggest upward bias.
Key Levels
1$920 (spot & near-term max pain)
2$1000 (major call OI wall)
3$890 (Jun max pain, put OI)
4EM 5/01: $810 - $1030
Flow Highlights
Massive bullish premium flow: $950C net +$7.7M, $1000C net +$5.5M, $960C net +$3.8M.
Institutional accumulation of upside calls, targeting moves to $1000+.
Unusual volume in 4/10 $1050C (4,180 vol vs 227 OI) and 4/02 $1100C (1,305 vol vs 113 OI).
Aggressive OTM call buying for post-earnings moves, using near-dated expiries to leverage high IV.
Strategies
Short Iron Condor (Premium Sell)
Sell 5/01 $820 PUT / Buy 5/01 $800 PUT // Sell 5/01 $1030 CALL / Buy 5/01 $1050 CALL
Trigger: Enter 5-7 days before earnings (around 4/23)
IV is elevated and will crush post-earnings. Strikes are placed just outside the 31-day expected move to provide a buffer, calibrated to available strikes.
Outperforms: Stock stays within the wide expected move bounds ($820-$1030). High IV crush provides cushion.
Underperforms: Stock gaps beyond short strikes by more than the credit received.
Bull Call Spread (Directional Upside)
Buy 5/01 $920 CALL / Sell 5/01 $1000 CALL
Trigger: On any pullback to $900-$910 before earnings
Aligns with overwhelmingly bullish flow and historical EPS beat tendency. Defined risk, capitalizes on both directional move and high IV if bought before crush.
Outperforms: LLY beats and raises guidance, pushing toward the $1000 call wall.
Underperforms: Stock sells off post-earnings or IV crush outweighs directional move.
Calendar Spread (IV Crush Play)
Sell 5/01 $920 CALL / Buy 6/18 $920 CALL
Trigger: Enter 1-2 weeks before earnings
Exploits the steep IV kink at the 5/01 expiration. Max pain and spot are at $920, increasing pin risk. Aims to profit from the decay of elevated short-term IV.
Outperforms: Stock pins near $920 with massive IV crush in the May expiration relative to June.
Underperforms: Large directional move away from $920, especially to the upside.
Risk Assessment
!Gap risk: High. 12.1% expected move is wide. Biotech/pharma stocks can react violently to trial data or guidance not fully priced in.
!IV crush: Significant. ~50% IV will likely drop 15+ points, punishing long premium positions entered just before earnings.
!Liquidity: Excellent. High OI/volume across many strikes and expirations.
!Sizing: Use reduced size due to wide expected move and high notional value of contracts.
What to Watch
?IV trajectory on the 5/01 expiration into the event.
?Spot price relative to $920 max pain and the $1000 call OI wall.
?Any unusual put flow developing as a hedge against bullish consensus.