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LITE

Lumentum Holdings Inc.Close $964.50EOD only
Max Pain
$900.00
Next expiry May 22, 2026
Expected Move
±$40.70
4.2% from close
Price Gap
-64.50
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
10
Low premium
P/C OI
1.40
Slightly put-heavy
Consensus
6.0/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: May 21, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects LITE options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 21, 2026 close
LITE Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close April 6, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

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You are viewing an older report from April 6, 2026. A newer earnings report is available for May 21, 2026.

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Earnings Verdict

Earnings expected around 5/5 (29 days out). IV extremely elevated (110% near-term), crush play highly viable. Strong pinning forces and positive GEX suggest limited downside risk, but wide expected move (±9.2% in 4 days) demands careful strike selection.

Confidence:
8 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning)
Most important: IV term structure kink at 4/10 (110% vs 102% next) confirms earnings anticipation; max pain pins at $750, $700, $685 create strong gravitational pull.
📅Earnings estimated 5/5 (29 days out); IV already pricing event
⚠️No historical move data provided; rely on EPS beat bias and EM bounds

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High (IV 107.2%)
Gamma Regime
Pinning (GEX +$2.5M)
Flow Regime
Mixed (net prem +$148.5M, P/C 1.14)
Spot vs MP
Above (spot $772.28 vs max pain $750)
Gamma flip: ~$650.00 — Below $650, dealers amplify moves due to put OI concentration (1,611 contracts, -16% from spot)

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-05-05 (29 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 4/10 (4d): ±$70.95 (9.2%)
  • 4/17 (11d): ±$109.00 (14.1%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Sharp kink at 4/10 (110% vs 102.2% at 4/17), elevated across curve

Crush estimate: ~10-15 vol pts post-earnings, back to ~95-100% range

Skew: Puts slightly richer (P/C vol 1.14), but call flow dominates premium ($148.5M net)

Historical Context

Beat rate: 100% (4/4 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: No historical move data provided; EPS surprise consistently positive (avg +$0.12)

Directional bias: Consistent EPS beats suggest upside bias

Key Levels

1$750.00
2$700.00
3$650.00
4$810.00
5$820.00
6$850.00

Flow Highlights

Heavy $500C 4/10 buying ($27.1M premium vs $424K puts)

Massive bullish flow far OTM, likely speculative earnings upside bet

$800P 4/10 unusual volume (822 vol vs 325 OI, 2.5x)

Hedge flow near spot; put open interest at $650 (1,611 OI) provides put floor

Strategies

Reverse calendar strangle (IV crush play)
Sell 4/10 $700P & $850C; Buy 4/17 $700P & $850C
Credit: $15.00-$20.00
Max loss: Unlimited (but capped by long legs)
Max gain: Credit received + IV crush on short legs
BE: Depends on IV crush magnitude; ideal: stock stays within $700-$850 post-earnings
Trigger: Enter 2-3 days before earnings
Exploits 7.8 vol-point differential between 4/10 (110%) and 4/17 (102.2%) expirations; short front-week IV harvests accelerated crush, long back-week provides hedge and slower decay
Outperforms: IV crushes >5 vol pts on 4/10 expiration post-earnings; stock stays within EM bounds
Underperforms: Large gap beyond strikes ($700/$850) or IV remains elevated post-earnings
Iron condor (sell premium)
Sell $700/$650P x $850/$900C 4/17
Credit: $25.00-$30.00
Max loss: $25.00
Max gain: $25.00
BE: 675.0 / 875.0
Trigger: Enter 5-7 days before earnings if IV >100%
Elevated IV (110%) and pinning forces (max pain $750, $700) favor premium selling; historical EPS beats reduce tail risk
Outperforms: Stock stays within $700-$850 range (within EM bounds)
Underperforms: Gap exceeds EM by >50% (below $650 or above $900)
Long strangle (directional bet)
Buy $700P / $850C 4/17
Max loss: Debit paid
Max gain: Unlimited
BE: 630.0 / 920.0
Trigger: Enter 1-2 days before earnings if IV hasn't spiked >120%
Historical EPS beat streak (4/4) and elevated IV suggest potential for larger-than-expected move; strangle captures asymmetry
Outperforms: Actual move exceeds EM by >30% (beyond $630-$920)
Underperforms: Stock pins near $750, IV crushes post-earnings

Risk Assessment

!Gap risk: 9.2% EM ($701-$843) is wide; break below $650 gamma flip could accelerate selling
!IV crush: ~10-15 vol pts drop likely post-earnings; long premium strategies need >30% move to overcome crush
!Liquidity: Sufficient (145K OI, 45K volume), but wide spreads on OTM strikes (e.g., $500C bid $0.30)
!Sizing: Keep positions small (<5% capital) due to elevated IV and binary earnings outcome

What to Watch

?IV trajectory into 4/10 expiration
?Unusual OTM call activity ($500C, $950C)
?Spot vs max pain $750 pin
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on April 6, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

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What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.