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LITE

Lumentum Holdings Inc.Close $868.07EOD only
Max Pain
$907.50
Next expiry May 22, 2026
Expected Move
±$61.90
7.1% from close
Price Gap
+39.43
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
5
Low premium
P/C OI
1.40
Slightly put-heavy
Consensus
4.5/10
Bearish tilt
Published snapshot: May 20, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects LITE options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 20, 2026 close
LITE Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close March 31, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from March 31, 2026. A newer earnings report is available for May 20, 2026.

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Earnings Verdict

Earnings expected ~May 5 (inferred from term structure). IV is extremely elevated at 114% for the 4/02 expiry, presenting a classic IV crush opportunity. The stock has a perfect history of beating EPS estimates, but the massive expected move (±10.2%) and high gamma risk require careful positioning.

Confidence:
7 / 10
base 5; +1 high IV and clear crush setup; +1 strong historical beat rate; -0.5 extreme IV makes pricing volatile
Most important: Extreme IV kink at 4/02 expiry (114% vs 99% next week) confirms earnings are priced for that cycle. Selling that premium is the core opportunity.
⚠️Earnings date is estimated (5/5). The extreme IV kink at 4/02 strongly suggests the market is pricing an event for that expiry. Monitor for confirmation.
📈Perfect 4/4 EPS beat history provides a directional bias, but the magnitude of past moves is unknown.
🎯Gamma flip at ~$600 and major put OI at $600 create a potential magnet on any significant downside move.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
Extreme (IV 107%)
Gamma Regime
Pinning (GEX +$1.8M — mean-reverting)
Flow Regime
Mixed (net prem +$145.3M, P/C 1.07)
Spot vs MP
Below max pain by 4.1% (spot $702.76 vs MP $732.5)
Gamma flip: ~$600.00 — Below ~$600, dealers may amplify downside moves due to put OI concentration.

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-05-05 (35 days)explicit (est.) + term structure inference

Expected moves:

  • 4/02 (2d): ±$71.90 (10.2%)
  • 4/10 (10d): ±$106.85 (15.2%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Extreme kink at 4/02 expiry (114.0% ATM IV), dropping sharply to 99.0% for 4/10.

Crush estimate: ~15 vol pts post-earnings, back to ~99% range.

Skew: Unusual put activity in deep OTM strikes ($340-$360) for 4/17, suggesting tail risk hedging.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 100% (4/4 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: No explicit historical move data, but perfect EPS beat record suggests positive bias.

Directional bias: Consistent EPS beats imply upward pressure, but magnitude unknown.

Key Levels

1$600 gamma flip & major put OI
2$700 spot vs $732.5 max pain
3EM 4/02: $630.86 - $774.66
4$750 call OI wall

Flow Highlights

Massive net call premium at $600 strike (+$18.1M), dominated by calls.

Institutional positioning for upside, possibly hedging or financing longer-dated positions.

Unusual volume in deep OTM 4/17 puts ($340-$360), with IV >140%.

Tail risk hedging or speculative bets on a large downside shock post-earnings.

Strategies

Short Straddle/Strangle (IV Crush)
Sell $700 straddle or $680/$720 strangle, 4/02 expiry.
Credit: $140.00-$160.00
Max loss: Unlimited beyond breakevens
Max gain: Full credit
BE: Straddle: ~$560/$840; Strangle: ~$540/$860
Trigger: Enter 1-2 days before inferred earnings (target 4/01).
Capitalizes on extreme IV premium and expected crush. Use strangle for wider breakevens if concerned about move size.
Outperforms: Stock stays within a wide range and IV crushes from 114% to ~99%.
Underperforms: Gap exceeds breakeven bounds (large directional move).
Iron Condor (Defined Risk)
Sell $630/$610 Put spread & Buy $775/$795 Call spread, 4/02 expiry.
Credit: $8.00-$12.00
Max loss: $12.00
Max gain: $8.00
BE: $622 / $783
Trigger: Enter 1-2 days before earnings.
Defined risk play on the stock staying within its priced range. Wings are placed just inside the expected move boundaries.
Outperforms: Stock stays within the 4/02 expected move bounds ($630.86 - $774.66).
Underperforms: Move exceeds expected move by >$10.
Calendar Spread (Play Crush & Direction)
Buy $700 call 4/10, Sell $700 call 4/02.
Max loss: Debit paid
Max gain: IV crush on short leg + directional upside.
BE: Complex; needs stock above $700 + enough to overcome net debit.
Trigger: Enter day before earnings.
Benefits from IV crush on the 4/02 short call while maintaining longer-dated upside exposure via the 4/10 long call. Aligns with historical beat bias.
Outperforms: Stock rises moderately post-earnings and IV crushes on the short-dated leg.
Underperforms: Stock falls or pins at $700, suffering theta decay on long leg.

Risk Assessment

!Gap Risk: Extreme. 10.2% expected move is massive. A beat could spark a large rally, but any guidance miss could see a violent drop toward the $600 gamma flip.
!IV Crush Impact: Crucial for short premium strategies. If IV remains elevated due to macro factors, crush may be less pronounced.
!Liquidity: OI/Volume sufficient for analysis but not ultra-high. Wide bid/ask spreads likely, especially on wing strikes. Execute with limit orders.
!Sizing: Given extreme volatility and potential for large gaps, position size must be small relative to portfolio (e.g., 1-2% risk capital).

What to Watch

?IV trajectory on the 4/02 expiry into the event.
?Spot price action relative to $700 and $732.5 max pain.
?Any unusual flow in weekly expirations confirming the earnings date.
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on March 31, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.