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LITE

Lumentum Holdings Inc.Close $897.30EOD only

Max Pain

$750.00

Next expiry Apr 17, 2026

Expected Move

±$91.35

10.2% from close

Price Gap

-147.30

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Middle-high premium

P/C OI

1.09

Balanced positioning

Consensus

5.0/10

Range bias

Published snapshot: Apr 10, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects LITE options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

Apr 10, 2026 close

LITE Directional Report

Analysis based on market close April 6, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Neutral-to-bearish with downside magnet to $750. Confidence: 6/10 (base 8, overridden to 6 due to moderate OI data quality). Strongest signals: GEX +$2.5M pinning, net premium +$148.5M bullish but P/C vol 1.14 mixed, max pain ladder falling from $750 to $300 over expirations.

Confidence:

6 / 10

base 8; -2 due to moderate OI (145K) and volume (45.7K) limiting precision of GEX/DEX and max pain pull; GEX positive and net premium bullish remain supportive.

Supports: GEX +$2.5M (pinning), net premium +$148.5M bullish, max pain $750 near-term
Conflicts: P/C vol 1.14 bearish, spot above max pain, falling max pain ladder implies structural downside

📊GEX pinning near $800-$860 with +$347K at $810

📉Max pain ladder falls from $750 to $300 over 13 expirations

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

IV 107.2% vs VIX N/A — extremely high, likely event-driven

Gamma Regime

Pinning

GEX +$2.5M concentrated near spot, pinning regime

Flow Regime

Mixed

Net prem +$148.5M bullish but P/C vol 1.14 bearish — mixed flow

Spot vs Max Pain

Above

Above MP by 3.0% ($772.28 vs $750)

Thesis duration: Multi-week — Max pain ladder trends down across expirations ($750 → $300), GEX sign stable positive, flow regime consistent mixed; prefer 30-45 DTE.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 weeks

$636.03$908.53

Max pain $750 dominates; >$810 invalidates with GEX pinning

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $750 (2026-04-10); $700 (2026-04-17); $685 (2026-04-24)

EM guardrails:

Support: $750.00 · $700.00 · $650.00

Resistance: $800.00 · $810.00 · $820.00

Gamma flip: ~$650.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 1,611 (15.8% below spot)

Structural: Call OI wall $890 caps upside; put floor $400-$650 provides distant support.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+2.5M

DEX: +5.4M shares

Gamma flip: ~$650 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 1,611 (15.8% below spot))

NTM gamma: Call gamma concentrated $800-$860 (+GEX); put gamma negative below $700 accelerates moves.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV 107.2% vs VIX N/A — extremely high, likely earnings/event pricing

Term structure: Steeply inverted — 4/10 110.0% > 4/17 102.2% > 4/24 99.9%

Skew: 4/10 vs 4/17 ~8 vol-pt differential favors selling near-term vol

Flow Analysis

Net premium: +$148.5M bullish; P/C vol 1.14 bearish — mixed

Directional prints: call 950 OTM 2026-04-10 — Vol 834 vs OI 124 (6.7x) — likely speculative upside bet put 800 ITM 2026-04-10 — Vol 822 vs OI 325 (2.5x) — could be hedging or directional bearish

Unusual: 176 put 500 OTM 2026-04-10 — Vol 610 vs OI 293 (2.1x) IV 176% — tail hedge or speculation

Risks & Catalysts

!Gamma flip ~$650 breaks pin and accelerates downside

!4/10 expiry releases pin risk toward $750

!Extreme IV 107.2% risks vol crush post-event

!Earnings 5/5 adds uncertainty

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Long stock	Moderate-Weak	Avoid — high IV and falling max pain ladder	Downside bias and IV crush
Short stock	Moderate	Consider if spot breaks $750	GEX pinning near $800-$860
Covered call	Moderate-Strong	Sell $800 call 4/17	Upside breakout above $810
Cash-secured put / put spread	Moderate-Strong	Sell $750/$700 put spread 4/17	Gamma flip <$650
Long calls	Weak	Avoid — high IV and bearish bias	IV crush and downside move
Long puts / bear put spreads	Moderate-Strong	Buy $750/$700 put spread 4/17	GEX pinning holds above $750
Iron condor	Moderate	$750/$700P x $800/$850C 4/17	High IV and pin break
Calendar/diagonal	Moderate-Strong	Sell 4/10 110% IV, buy 4/17 102% IV regular calendar at $800	Spot moves away from strike
PMCC / LEAPS diagonal	Moderate	Buy $600 call 2027-01-15, sell $800 call 4/17	High IV on short leg

Top Plays

Bear Put Spread

Buy $750/$700 put spread 4/17

Defined-risk bearish play targeting max pain $750 and falling ladder.

Debit: $24.65-$27.50

Max loss: $24.65

BE: $747.50

Mgmt: Take profit at 50% max profit if spot hits $700; cut if spot >$770.

Traders with bearish bias seeking defined risk

Covered Call

Sell $800 call 4/17

Premium collection with upside cap at resistance; aligns with GEX pinning.

Credit: $40.50-$45.90

BE: $812.90

Mgmt: Roll up if spot approaches $810; close at 70% profit.

Shareholders looking to generate income

Regular Calendar

Sell $800 call 4/10 (110% IV), buy $800 call 4/17 (102% IV)

8 vol-pt edge selling high near-term IV; benefits from pinning and time decay.

Credit: $22.40-$26.00

Mgmt: Close when near-term IV collapses or spot moves >$20 from strike.

Vol traders seeking theta and vega decay

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFSpot breaks below $750 and holds 1 hour → Buy $750/$700 put spread 4/17

IFSpot tags $810 and VIX < 25 → Sell $800/$850 call spread 4/17

Exit Triggers

EXITSpot > $820 and GEX turns negative → Exit all short premium positions

EXITVIX spikes > 30 and spot < $700 → Take profits on bear put spreads

Tactical Summary

Primary thesis: bearish pin toward $750 with falling max pain ladder. Invalidation: >$810 breaks GEX pinning. Regime favors selling premium around resistance and defined-risk bearish plays. Top plays: bear put spread for directional bears, covered call for income, calendar for vol decay.

Read the Directional analysis for LITE for 2026-04-06. Each report is a market-close snapshot with regime read, key levels, and strategy context that translates options positioning into an actionable setup.