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LITE

Lumentum Holdings Inc.Close $868.07EOD only

Max Pain

$907.50

Next expiry May 22, 2026

Expected Move

±$61.90

7.1% from close

Price Gap

+39.43

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Low premium

P/C OI

1.40

Slightly put-heavy

Consensus

4.5/10

Bearish tilt

Published snapshot: May 20, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects LITE options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 20, 2026 close

LITE Directional Report

Analysis based on market close March 31, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

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You are viewing an older report from March 31, 2026. A newer directional report is available for May 20, 2026.

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Outlook

Neutral-to-bearish with a strong gravitational pull toward $700-$732 in the near term, but a clear multi-week downward trend in max pain suggests underlying weakness. Confidence: 7.5/10.

Confidence:

6 / 10

Base 7.5 reduced to 6.0 due to moderate OI data quality; GEX +$1.8M supports near-term pinning, but falling MP trend, extreme bearish puts, and mixed flow signal high conflict.

Supports: Positive GEX (+$1.8M) and DEX (+5.5M shares) create near-term pinning; spot near $700 aligns with near-term max pain levels.
Conflicts: Max pain trend falls from $732 to $300; P/C volume ratio 1.07 shows put volume dominance; extreme bearish speculation in $555P (246.8% IV) signals panic.

📉Max pain collapses from $732 to $300 long-term

📌Strong near-term pin between $700-$732

🚨$555P at 247% IV — extreme near-term crash bid

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

IV 107% is extremely high, favoring premium sellers if you can withstand the volatility.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

GEX +$1.8M indicates dealer long gamma, promoting near-term pinning and mean reversion around spot.

Flow Regime

Mixed

Mixed: Net premium +$145M is bullish, but P/C volume ratio 1.07 and extreme OTM put buying show bearish fear.

Spot vs Max Pain

Below

Spot ($702.76) is below the nearest max pain ($732) but aligned with the subsequent $700 pins, suggesting a short-term magnet higher.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — Max pain ladder shows a persistent downward trend across April and May expirations ($732 → $700 → $660 → $640), indicating a structural bearish drift over several weeks. This is the primary driver; the net GEX figure is less indicative of persistence across tenors.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$630.86$774.66

Pinning dominates but is undercut by extreme OTM put buying; break below $630.86 (2d EM low) invalidates.

Next 1 week

$595.91$809.61

Max pain drops to $700, then $660; upside capped by $809.61 (1w EM high).

Next 2 weeks

$569.56$835.96

Target $660-$640 max pain zone; failure to hold $569.56 (2w EM low) accelerates downtrend.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $732 (2026-03-27); $700 (2026-04-02); $700 (2026-04-10)

EM guardrails: 2d $630.86/$774.66; 1w $595.91/$809.61

Support: $600.00 · $600.00

Resistance: $890.00 · $750.00 · $710.00

Gamma flip: ~$600.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 1,411

Structural: Massive call OI wall $750-$890 caps rallies; put floor at $600 is the critical near-term support. The $300 max pain for Jan 2027 is a distant but stark bearish anchor.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+1.8M

DEX: +5.5M shares

Gamma flip: ~$600 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 1,411)

NTM gamma: Positive GEX suggests dealers are net long gamma, hedging by buying dips and selling rallies, reinforcing the $700 area. A move below the ~$600 gamma flip would force significant dealer selling.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV 107% is astronomically high — stock-specific volatility is extreme, making premium sale compelling but dangerous.

Term structure: Steeply inverted: 2-day IV 114% > 10-day 99% > 31-day 101%. Largest edge is the **13 vol point differential between 4/2 (114%) and 5/1 (101%)**.

Skew: Massive 13 vol-pt differential between weekly (114%) and monthly (101%) expiries creates a compelling reverse calendar spread edge. Sell the high IV front week, buy the lower IV back month.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: +$145.3M bullish; P/C vol 1.07 (put vol dominant), P/C OI 0.85.

Directional prints: $600C saw $18.1M net premium — likely large bullish call buying or spread initiation. $750C vol 217 vs OI 1,586 could be call selling against existing positions.

Unusual: **$555P 4/2 with 246.8% IV and 1.8x volume/OI is a major risk signal** — extreme panic buying or speculation for an imminent crash ~21% below spot.

Risks & Catalysts

!**Extreme near-term bearish speculation**: $555P at 247% IV indicates panic bid for a crash, directly conflicting with the pinning thesis.

!Gamma flip near $600 — break below triggers accelerated dealer selling.

!Extreme IV (107%) can lead to violent, unpredictable swings despite pinning.

!Earnings estimated 5/5 — vol kink in term structure indicates uncertainty; expect crush post-event.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Long Stock	Moderate-Weak	Not recommended for new entries. Existing holders should hedge.	Structural bearish MP trend, high IV, and extreme OTM put buying create poor risk/reward.
Short Stock	Moderate	Consider on a break below $600 with a target toward $640-$660 MP zone.	Strong near-term pinning and positive GEX can cause painful squeezes toward $732.
Covered Call	Strong	Own stock, sell 4/10 $750C (at resistance) for ~$15-20 credit (est).	Capped upside; stock decline not protected.
Cash-Secured Put / Put Spread	Moderate	Sell 4/17 $600/$590 put spread (at put floor). Credit est $2.50-$3.00.	Heightened by extreme OTM put buying signaling tail risk.
Long Calls	Weak	Avoid. IV is 107%, making long premium expensive with a bearish structural drift.	Vol crush and theta decay in a pinning regime.
Long Puts / Bear Put Spread	Moderate	Buy 5/1 $660/$640 put spread (targeting next MP zone). Debit est ~$8-$10.	Near-term pinning can cause rallies; extreme IV makes longs expensive.
Iron Condor	Moderate-Weak	4/10 $630/$600P x $770/$800C. Credit est $8-$12.	High IV >100% and extreme OTM put buying raise tail risk substantially.
Calendar / Diagonal	Strong	Reverse Calendar: Sell 4/2 $700C (114% IV), Buy 5/1 $700C (101% IV). Captures 13 vol-pt differential.	Requires pin at $700; directional move hurts.
PMCC / LEAPS Diagonal	Moderate-Strong	Buy Jan 2027 $300C (96.5% IV), Sell Apr 2026 $700C (~99% IV).	Capital intensive; long-dated IV still high.

Top Plays

Reverse Calendar Spread (Largest Edge)

Sell 4/2 $700 Call, Buy 5/1 $700 Call

Captures the largest identifiable edge: a 13 volatility point differential between the hyper-inverted front week (114% IV) and the May monthly (101% IV). Benefits from pinning at $700 and extreme front-end vol crush.

Credit: $6.00-$10.00

Max loss: Unlimited (above long strike)

BE: Calculation-based (varies)

Mgmt: Take profit at 50-70% of max credit if front-week IV collapses. Exit if spot moves >$30 from $700. Manage pin into 4/2 expiry.

Volatility traders seeking to harvest the extreme front-week premium with a longer-dated long for protection.

Bear Put Spread (30+ DTE)

Buy 5/1 $660 Put, Sell 5/1 $640 Put

Aligns with the multi-week bearish drift in max pain (targeting $660-$640 zone) while using a spread to offset the high cost of long puts. The 31 DTE provides time for the structural thesis to play out away from near-term pinning and extreme weekly volatility.

Debit: $8.00-$10.00

Max loss: $8.00

BE: $652.00

Mgmt: Target 50-100% gain if spot reaches $640 MP area. Stop out if spot reclaims and holds above $700, invalidating the drift.

Traders with a bearish multi-week view wanting defined risk. Better than a weekly put because it avoids the noise of the 4/2 expiry and extreme OTM put speculation.

Covered Call

Own Stock, Sell 4/10 $750 Call

Generates substantial income from extreme IV while providing a partial hedge against the bearish structural trend. The $750 strike is at the call OI wall, a strong resistance level.

Credit: $15.00-$20.00

Max loss: Unlimited (stock decline)

BE: Stock purchase price minus credit

Mgmt: Consider rolling up and out if stock approaches $750. If assigned, premium cushions exit.

Existing shareholders looking to enhance yield and reduce cost basis in a high-vol, range-bound environment. Provides some downside cushion.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFSpot rallies to test $732 (near-term max pain) and stalls → Enter reverse calendar: Sell 4/2 $732.5C, Buy 5/1 $732.5C

IFSpot breaks and closes below $600 (gamma flip & put floor) → Enter bear put spread: Buy 4/17 $590P, Sell 4/17 $570P

Exit Triggers

EXITSpot closes above $770 (1w EM high) → Exit all bearish positions (short stock, put spreads).

EXITIV on front-week expiry (4/2) drops below 90% → Take profit on reverse calendar spreads.

EXITSpot drops sharply toward $555, activating the extreme put speculation → Exit all short put positions immediately due to realized tail risk.

Tactical Summary

The regime is a high-conflict battle between strong near-term pinning ($700-$732) and powerful multi-week bearish signals (falling max pain, extreme OTM put buying). The largest pure edge is selling the hyper-inverted front-week volatility via a reverse calendar (sell 4/2, buy 5/1). Position for the structural downtrend with longer-dated bear put spreads, but respect the extreme tail risk signaled by the $555 puts. Top plays: 1) Reverse calendar for the 13 vol-pt edge, 2) 30+ DTE bear put spread for the drift, 3) Covered call for shareholders to harvest IV.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on March 31, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.