Home Options JPMReports

JPM

JP Morgan Chase & Co.Close $301.98EOD only

Max Pain

$300.00

Next expiry May 22, 2026

Expected Move

±$4.92

1.6% from close

Price Gap

-1.98

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Low premium

P/C OI

1.07

Balanced positioning

Consensus

4/4

Partial coverage

Published snapshot: May 20, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects JPM options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 20, 2026 close

JPM Directional Report

Analysis based on market close March 31, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Consensus-supported lens with chain history and key metrics in the rail.

Outlook

Neutral-to-bullish with a multi-week upward drift. Confidence: 8.5/10. Spot is above max pain, but strong positive GEX (+$26.9M) and a rising max pain ladder ($290→$310) create a supportive, pinning environment that favors a gradual grind higher. Net premium is bullish at +$27.2M.

Confidence:

8.5 / 10

Base 8.5; GEX strongly positive, flow net bullish, and spot above MP support the high score. No overrides.

Supports: GEX +$26.9M (strong pinning), Net Premium +$27.2M (bullish), Rising MP ladder ($290→$310).
Conflicts: Spot 1.4% above nearest MP ($290), P/C OI ratio 1.21 shows heavy put open interest.

📈Max pain ladder rises to $310 by March '27, signaling structural bullish gravity.

🧲Strong positive GEX (+$26.9M) acts as a magnet, suppressing volatility near-term.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

Normal

IV 28.7% is in a 'Normal' range. Premium selling for range-bound strategies is viable, not compelling.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

GEX +$26.9M indicates a **Pinning** regime. Dealers are net long gamma, hedging by buying dips and selling rallies, compressing spot movement.

Flow Regime

Mixed

**Mixed** flow: net premium is bullish (+$27.2M), but P/C OI ratio (1.21) shows heavy put positioning, suggesting institutional hedging.

Spot vs Max Pain

Above

Spot ($294.16) is **Above** nearest max pain ($290). This creates a mild downward pull, but the rising MP ladder overrides for a bullish multi-week bias.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — Max pain ladder trends upward across 16 expirations, GEX sign is stable positive, and flow regime is consistent. This is not a one-week pin event.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$289.49$298.83

Strong GEX pinning dominates; break above $298.83 or below $289.49 needed for momentum.

Next 1 week

$283.56$304.76

Flow and rising MP support a test of the weekly EM high; $283.56 is key support.

Next 2 weeks

$277.39$310.94

Structural call OI wall at $310-$340 is the next major target; failure below $277.39 invalidates.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $290 (2026-03-27); $285 (2026-04-02); $290 (2026-04-10)

EM guardrails: 2d $289.49/$298.83; 1w $283.56/$304.76

Support: $200.00 · $250.00 · $230.00

Resistance: $320.00 · $340.00 · $310.00

Gamma flip: ~$200.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 14,504

Structural: **Call OI wall $310-$340** caps major upside; **Put floor $200-$275** (massive OI at $200, $250) provides distant but formidable support.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+26.9M

DEX: +16.3M shares

Gamma flip: ~$200 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 14,504)

NTM gamma: Gamma flip is far below at ~$200, indicating negligible near-term gamma sensitivity. Dealer hedging is stable; a ±2% move would not trigger aggressive delta rebalancing.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV 28.7% is 'Normal'. No clear cheap/rich signal for outright vol buys or sells.

Term structure: **Humped with kinks.** 4/17 expiry IV (33.7%) is ~6 vol points > 4/10 (27.8%), pricing in the 4/14 earnings event. May-Oct expiries hover around 30%.

Skew: **Earnings calendar spread opportunity:** Sell high IV (33.7%) in 4/17, buy lower IV (27.8%) in 4/10 for a reverse calendar, betting on post-earnings vol crush.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: +$27.2M bullish; P/C vol 0.81 neutral, P/C OI 1.21 bearish (hedging).

Directional prints: 1) $310C 4/10 vol 905 vs OI 5,819 – likely closing/selling calls against existing longs. 2) $295P 4/2 vol 1,222 vs OI 504 – could be protective put buying or selling; selling is more consistent with the pinning regime.

Unusual: $250P 4/10 vol 844 at 50.5% IV – deep OTM put bought for tail hedge or sold for premium; premium sale aligns with high-conviction bullish view.

Risks & Catalysts

!**Earnings (4/14) vol crush risk** for long premium positions in April expiries.

!Break below 2-week EM low ($277.39) could trigger a slide toward the massive $250-$275 put OI floor.

!High put OI ratio (1.21) indicates latent bearish hedging that could accelerate on a downturn.

!Gamma flip is far away (~$200), reducing dealer damping effect on large moves.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Long Stock	Moderate-Strong	Buy shares at $294.16.	Earnings event and broad market downturn.
Short Stock	Weak	N/A	Strong positive GEX and bullish flow oppose sustained downside.
Covered Call	Moderate-Strong	Own stock, sell 4/17 $305 Call (~$2.00 est).	Capped upside if stock rallies through call wall.
Cash-Secured Put / Put Spread	Moderate-Strong	Sell 5/15 $275 Put (~$5.50 est) or $280/$275 put spread.	Assignment below strike; defined risk with spread.
Long Calls	Moderate	Buy 6/18 $300 Call, using post-earnings dip to enter.	Time decay and vol crush post-earnings.
Long Puts / Bear Put Spreads	Moderate-Weak	Only as hedge; e.g., buy 5/15 $285/$280 put spread.	Pinning regime and bullish drift work against.
Iron Condor	Strong	4/17 $285/$280P x $305/$310C (EM bounds). GEX positive & IV < 22? No, IV ~28.7%, but GEX strongly positive supports.	Earnings event creates gap risk; prefer post-earnings.
Calendar/Diagonal	Moderate-Strong	Reverse Calendar: Sell 4/17 $295 Call (IV 33.7%), Buy 4/10 $295 Call (IV 27.8%).	Wrong direction if stock gaps past short strike.
PMCC / LEAPS Diagonal	Moderate-Strong	Buy 1/15/27 $280 Call, sell 4/17 $305 Call against it.	Capital intensive; long-dated vol at 30.4%.

Top Plays

Cash-Secured Put (45 DTE)

Sell JPM 5/15 $275 Put

**Collects premium while positioning for the bullish multi-week drift.** The $275 strike is below the 2-week EM low and above the major put OI floor, offering strong support. The 45 DTE provides time for the thesis to play out and manages earnings event risk.

Credit: $5.00-$6.00

Max loss: $27500.00

BE: $269.00

Mgmt: Take profit at 50-70% of max credit. Roll down/out if spot breaches $277.39 (2-week EM low).

Bullish investors wanting to acquire stock at a discount or earn income.

Reverse Calendar Spread

Sell 4/17 $295 Call, Buy 4/10 $295 Call

**Capitalizes on the earnings IV kink.** Sells expensive post-earnings vol (33.7%) and buys cheaper pre-earnings vol (27.8%). Profits if stock is near $295 at 4/10 expiry with IV collapsing post-earnings. Best expression of the pinning regime with a defined catalyst.

Credit: $0.80-$1.20

Max loss: $4.20

BE: N/A

Mgmt: Close after earnings announcement. Manage if spot moves far from $295 before 4/10 expiry.

Traders with a neutral view wanting to exploit rich near-term vol.

Covered Call (Post-Earnings)

Own Stock, Sell 5/15 $310 Call

**Generates income against a core position, targeting the call OI wall.** The 45 DTE call targets the $310 structural resistance, aligning with the multi-week bullish drift. Provides downside cushion and outperforms a naked long stock position if the grind is slow.

Credit: $3.50-$4.50

Max loss: Unlimited below stock price

BE: $290.66

Mgmt: Consider rolling up if spot approaches $305. Close if bullish thesis breaks (spot < $277.39).

Existing shareholders looking to enhance returns in a range-bound uptrend.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFIf spot dips to $289.49 (2d EM low) and holds for 1 hour → Enter Cash-Secured Put: Sell 5/15 $275 Put.

IFIf IV on 4/17 expiry rises above 35% pre-earnings → Enter Reverse Calendar: Sell 4/17 $295 Call, Buy 4/10 $295 Call.

Exit Triggers

EXITIf 4/17 $295 Call short leg reaches 50% max profit before earnings → Close the entire Reverse Calendar spread.

EXITIf P/C volume ratio spikes above 1.5 with spot declining → Exit all short premium positions (CSPs, Iron Condors).

Tactical Summary

Primary thesis: Bullish multi-week drift toward $310, anchored by strong positive GEX and a rising max pain ladder. The regime favors selling premium (CSPs, covered calls) and volatility arbitrage (calendars). Invalidation is a break below $277.39. Top plays: 1) 45 DTE CSP for income/entry, 2) Reverse calendar to exploit earnings IV, 3) Covered call for shareholders.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on March 31, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.