base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 spot 0.6% from MP; +0.5 VIX 19; override: Bearish flow and negative dealer gamma reduce premium-selling appeal.
Term structure: Front-end elevated (1DTE 19.6%) vs back ~23.5%; near-term uncertainty.
Spot vs MP: At
GEX regime: Trending ($-400.3M)
Gamma flip: ~$290.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 116,349 (1.8% below spot)
OI concentrations: Max pain pin at $297 (0DTE), $295 (1DTE), $293 (2DTE). Put OI 116k at $290 acts as gamma flip.
#1Put calendar
Sell 2026-07-24 $290.00 put / buy 2026-12-18 $290.00 put
Sell Jul24 $290 put, buy Dec18 $290 put to capture elevated front premium.
Mgmt: Close if spot breaks below $290 or delta shifts sharply.
#2Call calendar
Sell 2026-07-24 $300.00 call / buy 2026-12-18 $300.00 call
Sell Jul24 $300 call, buy Dec18 $300 call to benefit from front IV decay.
Mgmt: Monitor delta; exit if spot drops below $290.
!Bearish flow and negative dealer gamma suggest trend continuation.
!High put/call ratio indicates crowded bearish bets; reversal risk if spot rises.