Earnings Verdict
IREN: low beat rate (40%), bearish flow, spot below MP, long duration to earnings.
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; -1 spot 10.9% from MP; +0.5 VIX 18
Most important: Bearish put flow dominates; downside bias.
🔻Net premium -$27.4M, P/C vol 2.83.
⚠️40% beat rate.
📊6d ±11%, 14d ±8%, 21d ±21%.
Regime Classification
Gamma flip: ~$42.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 42,791 (11.0% below spot)
Earnings Overview
Next earnings: 2026-08-27 (62 days)explicit
Expected moves:
- 2026-07-02 (6d): ±$5.20 (11.0%)
- 2026-07-10 (14d): ±$3.80 (8.0%)
- 2026-07-17 (21d): ±$9.88 (20.9%)
IV Setup
Term structure: Front-loaded, 6d ~100 IV, 21d ~110%.
Crush estimate: Moderate, ~50% IV reduction expected.
Skew: Put skew high; deep OTM puts >120%.
Historical Context
Beat rate: 40% (2/5 quarters)
Avg move vs expected: Avg move 12% vs implied 8-11%.
Directional bias: Bearish bias.
Key Levels
1$42.00 gamma flip
2EM guardrails: 1w $42.00/$52.41
3Max pain pins: $53 (2026-06-26); $52 (2026-07-02); $57 (2026-07-10)
Flow Highlights
Large $39 put buy (28k vol) and heavy put vol across strikes.
Strong bearish positioning.
Strategies
Bear Put Spread
Buy 2026-09-18 $50.00/$45.00 put spread
Trigger: Monitor $50 level; close if spot invalidates above.
Dominant bearish flow, low beat rate, spot below MP, elevated IV make this the top play.
Outperforms: Profits from expected decline via put spread.
Underperforms: Trade above resistance weakens downside thesis.
Risk Assessment
!Low beat rate.
!Spot 11% below MP.
!Gamma flip at $42.
What to Watch
?Earnings in 62 days.
?$42 level.
?Call wall $50-$65.