thetaOwl
HomeOptionsIRENReports

IREN

IREN LIMITEDClose $47.74EOD only
Max Pain
$54.00
Next expiry May 22, 2026
Expected Move
±$4.32
9.1% from close
Price Gap
+6.26
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
31
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
0.78
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
4/4
Partial coverage
Published snapshot: May 19, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects IREN options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 19, 2026 close
IREN Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close March 31, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Earnings Verdict

Earnings in 43 days (est. 5/13). IV is extremely elevated (100%+) across the curve, with a pronounced kink around the May expirations, making IV crush plays highly attractive. The stock has a strong history of beating EPS estimates and gapping up post-earnings. The best strategy is a short premium play to harvest the inflated volatility, with a directional bias to the upside.

Confidence:
7.5 / 10
base 5; +1.5 high IV (100%) & clear term structure kink; +1 strong historical beat rate & directional bias
Most important: IV >100% across the board with a clear term structure kink. Historical EPS beat rate is 100% with a strong upward gap bias.
⚠️Extreme IV (>100%) across all expirations. This is a premium seller's environment, but moves can be explosive.
📈Historical EPS beat rate is 100% with a clear upward gap bias. Favors bullish or non-directional strategies over bearish ones.
🛡️Massive OTM put buying (e.g., $21P) indicates fear of a catastrophic drop. Be aware of tail risk.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High (IV 100%)
Gamma Regime
Pinning (GEX +$2.4M — mean-reverting)
Flow Regime
Mixed (net prem $-9.2M, P/C 0.68)
Spot vs MP
Below max pain by 15.4% (spot $34.28 vs MP $40)
Gamma flip: ~$30.00 — Below $30, dealers may amplify downward moves due to put OI concentration.

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-05-13 (43 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 5/15 (45d): ±$9.67 (28.2%)
  • 6/18 (79d): ±$12.30 (35.9%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Pronounced kink at May expirations (95-102% IV) vs. lower IV in June/July (~98-96%). Sharpest elevation is in the May 15th (101.8%) expiration, aligning with the earnings date.

Crush estimate: ~20-30 vol pts post-earnings, back toward 70-80% range.

Skew: Unusual activity shows heavy OTM put buying (e.g., $21P 4/10, IV 161%), suggesting tail risk hedging. Premium flow is mixed but net negative, driven by large put premiums at strikes like $75.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 100% (4/4 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Cannot compute precise % move from provided data, but directional bias is clear.

Directional bias: 3/4 quarters gapped up post-earnings (based on EPS surprise >0). Last quarter (Q4 2025) saw a massive beat (+$0.88).

Key Levels

1$30 gamma flip / major put OI wall (33,729)
2$35.50 max pain (4/02)
3$40 major resistance & max pain for many expirations
4EM 5/15: $24 - $44

Flow Highlights

Massive $21 Put buying for 4/10 & 4/17 (Vol 5,830 & 664 vs low OI). IV >140%.

Extreme tail-risk hedging or speculation of a large drop. Could be a volatility sale on puts.

Heavy $35 & $36 Call buying for 4/17 (Vol 5,569 & 2,157).

Near-term bullish bets targeting a move above current spot.

Net premium flow deeply negative (-$9.2M), driven by huge put premiums at strikes like $75, $42, $38.

Overall market paying up for downside protection, skewing the P/C ratio.

Strategies

Short Iron Condor (IV Crush Play)
Sell $27.5 Put / Buy $25 Put | Sell $41 Call / Buy $43.5 Call | Exp 5/15
Credit: $1.50-$2.00
Max loss: $2.50
Max gain: $1.75
BE: ~$29.25 / ~$39.75
Trigger: Enter 3-4 weeks before earnings (late April).
Capitalizes on extreme IV (>100%) and expected crush. Strikes placed outside the 28% expected move but inside major OI levels ($30, $40).
Outperforms: Stock stays within wide $27.5-$41 range post-earnings and IV crushes significantly.
Underperforms: Stock gaps beyond short strikes ($27.5 or $41).
Bull Put Spread (Directional Bias)
Sell $30 Put / Buy $27.5 Put | Exp 5/15
Credit: $0.80-$1.20
Max loss: $1.70
Max gain: $1.00
BE: $29.20
Trigger: Enter on any pullback toward $34.
Leverages strong historical EPS beat rate and upward gap bias. Collects premium while defining risk. The $30 strike is a major support level with huge OI.
Outperforms: Stock stays above $30, aided by massive put OI support and historical upward bias.
Underperforms: Stock breaks below $30, triggering the gamma flip level.
Long Call Diagonal (Volatility & Directional)
Buy $35 Call 6/18 (79d) / Sell $36 Call 5/15 (45d)
Max loss: Debit paid
Max gain: Uncapped above $36, reduced by short call
BE: $35 + net debit
Trigger: Enter if IV dips before earnings, or on a spot pullback to ~$33.
Aims to benefit from a post-earnings rally (historical bias) while partially financing the position by selling elevated near-term IV (101.8% vs 98%).
Outperforms: Stock rallies steadily through and after earnings, and near-term (May) IV crushes more than long-term (June) IV.
Underperforms: Stock stagnates or falls, suffering from time decay on the long call.

Risk Assessment

!Gap Risk: Expected move is enormous (±28.2%). While historical bias is up, the stock is volatile and below max pain, indicating underlying weakness.
!IV Crush Impact: Critical for short premium strategies. If IV remains elevated due to macro factors (e.g., high VIX), crush may be less severe, hurting profitability.
!Liquidity: Options are liquid enough for analysis (1.6M OI) but not hyper-liquid. Focus on strikes with high OI ($30, $35, $40) for better fills.
!Sizing: Size small due to the binary, high-volatility nature of the event. The wide expected move demands wide strikes for condors.

What to Watch

?IV trajectory in the May 15th expiration over the next 3 weeks.
?Spot price action relative to the $30 support and $40 resistance/max pain.
?Any unusual call buying for May/June expirations, confirming bullish bets.
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on March 31, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.