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IREN

IREN LIMITEDClose $47.74EOD only

Max Pain

$57.00

Next expiry Jun 26, 2026

Expected Move

±$2.40

5.0% from close

Price Gap

+9.26

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Low premium

P/C OI

0.96

Balanced positioning

Consensus

7.0/10

Bearish tilt

Published snapshot: Jun 25, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects IREN options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

Jun 25, 2026 close

IREN Directional Report

Analysis based on market close June 26, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Bearish bias: dealer flow negative, spot below max pain, high vol. Expect downside to 43-42 support within 1-2 weeks; resistance 50-51 caps.

Confidence:

6.5 / 10

Base 5; GEX/flow strongly aligned +2; spot 10.9% from MP -1; VIX 18 +0.5 = 6.5.

Supports: Bearish flow, high vol, below MP, dealer gamma trending.
Conflicts: Spot below MP may pin; VIX not extreme; crypto correlation.

📉Bearish flow dominates, puts outpacing calls.

⚡High vol amplifies directional moves.

🔻Spot below $53 max pain, pressure lower.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

Vol High; IV likely elevated vs VIX 18.4, amplifying moves.

Gamma Regime

Trending

Gamma Trending (negative dealer gamma), momentum-driven moves possible.

Flow Regime

Bearish

Flow Bearish; net premium negative, puts dominate.

Spot vs Max Pain

Below

Spot Below max pain $53, suggesting downside hedging pressure.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — Bearish flow, high vol, and spot below gamma levels support multi-week downside.

Price Range Forecast

Next 1 week

$42.00$52.41

Downside to 42 support; resistance 52.41.

Next 2 weeks

$43.41$51.01

Range 43.41-51.01; bias lower, gamma flip at 42.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $53 (2026-06-26); $52 (2026-07-02); $57 (2026-07-10)

EM guardrails: 1w $42.00/$52.41

Support: $43.41 · $43.00

Resistance: $50.00 · $51.01

Gamma flip: ~$42.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 42,791 (11.0% below spot)

Structural: Max pain $53 (26-Jun), $52 (2-Jul), $57 (10-Jul); EM 1w $42/$52.41; support 43.41, 43; resistance 50, 51.01; gamma flip ~$42.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $-48.3M

DEX: +64.7M shares

Gamma flip: ~$42 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 42,791 (11.0% below spot))

NTM gamma: GEX -$48.3M, DEX +64.7M shares; gamma flip ~$42 (42.8K put OI).

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV rich vs VIX 18.4, options expensive.

Term structure: Contango but steep front end due to high vol.

Skew: Put skew elevated; consider bearish put spreads or vol sell.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium -$27.4M, put/call vol ratio 2.83, strong bearish flow.

Directional prints: 113 put 39 OTM 2026-07-17 — Vol/OI 19.7, heavy put buying, likely bearish.

Unusual: 30.7 call 47.5 OTM 2026-06-26 — Vol/OI 30.1, expiring today, low premium, likely speculative bought. 113 put 39 OTM 2026-07-17 — Vol/OI 19.7, high IV, heavy put buying for downside. 95.5 call 53 OTM 2026-07-02 — Vol/OI 12.1, high IV, likely sold (call overwriting).

Risks & Catalysts

!Crypto rally could reverse bearish flow.

!Vol collapse if market calms.

!Pinning to max pain at $53.

!Breakout above $51 invalidates thesis.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Bear put spread	Moderate-Strong	Buy 2026-07-02 $45.00/$43.00 put spread Why now: Dealer flow negative, put/call vol ratio 2.83, heavy put buying; defined-risk bearish play with high vol environment.	If crypto rallies or spot pins above 50, spread loses value; vol collapse may compress premiums.
Long put	Moderate	Buy 2026-07-02 $45.00 put Why now: Unusual put buying (strike 39) and net premium -27.4M signal bearish positioning; long put captures gamma if selloff accelerates.	Time decay if spot stays above 50; theta accelerates as earnings approach; IV collapse may hurt.
Put credit spread	Moderate	Sell 2026-07-02 $42.00/$41.00 put spread Why now: High IV allows attractive premium; bearish flow supports put leg; defined risk suits current uncertainty.	If spot remains above short strike, spread expires worthless; theta decay accelerates near expiry.

Top Plays

Bear Put Spread

Buy 2026-07-02 $45.00/$43.00 put spread

Buy $45/$43 put spread for July 2, capturing downside with limited loss

Why this play: Best match for bearish thesis with defined risk and high vol environment

Debit: $0.54-$0.67

Max loss: $0.67

BE: $44.33

Mgmt: Hold to expiration or close at 50% profit; exit if stock breaks $50

Traders seeking defined-risk bearish exposure

Long Put

Buy 2026-07-02 $45.00 put

Buy $45 put for July 2, benefits from accelerated downside

Why this play: Captures gamma in selloff; aligns with heavy put buying

Debit: $1.54-$1.89

Max loss: $1.89

BE: $43.11

Mgmt: Stop loss at $1.00 premium; take profit at $43

Aggressive traders seeking max upside

Put Credit Spread

Sell 2026-07-02 $42.00/$41.00 put spread

Sell $42/$41 put spread for July 2, earns premium with defined risk

Why this play: Premium collection in high IV; bearish but limited profit

Credit: $0.18-$0.21

Max loss: $0.79

BE: $41.79

Mgmt: Exit at 50% max gain; stop loss if stock drops below $43.40

Income-focused traders

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFPrice breaks below $43.41 support → Enter bear put spread: buy $45/$43 put spread Jul2

IFPrice rallies to $50 resistance and fails → Enter long put: buy $45 put Jul2

Exit Triggers

EXITPrice closes above $43.41 or spread hits $1.00 → Close bear put spread

Tactical Summary

Bearish bias from negative dealer flow and high vol. Key support $43.41/$43, resistance $50/$51.01. Prefer bear put spread on breakdown below support, or long put on failed rally. Manage defined risk; exit on invalidation.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on June 26, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.