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IREN

IREN LIMITEDClose $47.74EOD only

Max Pain

$54.00

Next expiry May 22, 2026

Expected Move

±$4.32

9.1% from close

Price Gap

+6.26

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Middle-high premium

P/C OI

0.78

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

4/4

Partial coverage

Published snapshot: May 19, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects IREN options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 19, 2026 close

IREN Directional Report

Analysis based on market close March 31, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Neutral with a bearish tilt, anchored by a massive put floor at $30 and a distant call wall at $50. Confidence: 4/10. The regime is contradictory: positive GEX suggests pinning, but spot is far below max pain and net premium flow is negative. Expect a grind lower toward the $30-$32 support zone, with any rally capped by the $36-$38 resistance.

Confidence:

4 / 10

base 5; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -1 GEX/flow contradict (net prem -$9.2M); -1 spot 15.4% from MP ($40).

Supports: Massive put OI at $30 (33,729), GEX +$2.4M (pinning), P/C vol 0.68 (put-heavy near-term).
Conflicts: Spot ($34.28) far below max pain ($40), net premium -$9.2M (bearish flow), IV >100% (volatile).

⚠️Spot 15% below max pain — gravity is down.

🛡️Put floor at $30 is massive (33,729 OI).

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

IV ~100% — extremely high vol, favoring premium sellers but with high tail risk.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

GEX +$2.4M concentrated near spot — creates a local pinning effect, but the gamma flip at ~$30 is a critical break level.

Flow Regime

Mixed

Net prem -$9.2M with P/C vol 0.68 — mixed but net bearish, dominated by large put flows at $75 and $42.

Spot vs Max Pain

Below

Spot $34.28 vs MP $40 — significantly below, indicating strong gravitational pull lower.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — Max pain ladder trends downward from $40 to $30 over 16 expirations, and the massive $30 put OI floor is a structural feature. GEX sign is stable positive, supporting a range-bound, pinning regime for weeks.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$32.58$35.97

P/C vol 0.68 and spot below MP dominate; break above $35.97 invalidates bearish short-term bias.

Next 1 week

$30.23$38.32

Gravity toward $30-$32 support; rally to $38 likely sold into.

Next 2 weeks

$28.83$39.72

Downward MP trend and put floor define the lower bound; upside limited by call OI walls.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $40 (2026-03-27); $36 (2026-04-02); $38 (2026-04-10)

EM guardrails: 2d $32.58/$35.97; 1w $30.23/$38.32

Support: $30.00 · $5.00 · $20.00

Resistance: $110.00 · $50.00 · $110.00

Gamma flip: ~$30.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 33,729

Structural: **Call OI wall $50-$110** is a distant but absolute cap. **Put floor $5-$32** is a massive structural support layer, with the $30 strike (33,729 OI) as the near-term battleground.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+2.4M

DEX: +51.1M shares

Gamma flip: ~$30 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 33,729)

NTM gamma: Positive GEX (+$2.4M) provides near-spot pinning, but the ~$30 gamma flip is a key level. If spot drops below $30, dealer hedging could accelerate selling.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV ~100% — extremely rich, presenting a strong edge for premium sellers if direction can be managed.

Term structure: Upward sloping (82.7% 2d → 101.8% 45d), then humped. **Kink at 5/15 (101.8%)** likely pricing May 13 earnings. Steep near-term roll-off (2d to 10d) supports calendar spreads.

Skew: Near-term (2d) IV at 82.7% vs 10d at 89.8% — ~7 vol-pt differential supports selling weeklies against longer-dated longs.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: -$9.2M bearish; P/C vol 0.68, P/C OI 0.83.

Directional prints: $75P 5/15 vol 580 vs OI 180 (3.2x) at IV 152.7% — likely bought puts for tail hedge. $35C 4/17 vol 5,569 vs OI 1,108 (5.0x) — could be bought calls for a bounce or sold covered calls.

Unusual: $21P 4/10 vol 5,830 vs OI 1,012 (5.8x) at IV 161.3% — deep OTM put buying, either extreme hedge or speculative bet on crash.

Risks & Catalysts

!Gamma flip at ~$30 — break below triggers accelerated dealer selling.

!Extremely high IV (>100%) — susceptible to sharp vol crush on any stability.

!May 13 earnings (est. -$0.26) — event risk priced into May IV kink.

!Massive, deep OTM put positions ($5, $10, $20) — creates unpredictable gamma on extreme moves.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Long stock	Weak	N/A	Strong gravitational pull below max pain and high IV make outright long unattractive.
Short stock	Moderate-Weak	N/A	Positive GEX and pinning create headwinds; better expressed via options.
Covered call	Moderate-Strong	Own stock, sell $36C or $38C 4/17 (~17 DTE).	Stock drifts lower; call strike above resistance and weekly MP.
Cash-secured put / put spread	Moderate-Strong	Sell $30/$28 put spread 5/15 (45 DTE) for credit.	Break below $30 gamma flip; defined risk via spread.
Long calls	Weak	N/A	High IV (>100%), spot below MP, and bearish flow — poor odds.
Long puts / bear put spread	Moderate	Buy $32/$30 put spread 4/17 (17 DTE).	Pinning and positive GEX slow descent; high IV hurts long premium.
Iron condor	Moderate	$30/$28P x $38/$40C 5/15 (45 DTE).	VIX equivalent >100% is extreme; GEX positive but spot far from MP reduces pin confidence.
Calendar/diagonal	Moderate-Strong	Buy $30P 5/15, sell $30P 4/10 (reverse calendar). Sell high IV (161% 4/10) against lower IV (152% 5/15).	Directional move through short strike.
PMCC / LEAPS diagonal	Moderate	Buy $30C Jan 2027, sell $38C 4/17 or 5/15 against it.	High cost basis; short call may cap upside in a rally.

Top Plays

Defined-Risk Put Spread

Sell $30/$28 put spread, expiration 5/15 (45 DTE).

Collects rich premium while defining risk below the critical $30 gamma flip and massive OI floor. Aligns with the multi-week bearish drift thesis and high IV.

Credit: $0.65-$0.80

Max loss: $1.35

BE: $29.35

Mgmt: Take profit at 60-70% of max credit. Exit if spot closes below $29.50 (breaching put floor). Roll out if challenged but not broken.

Traders seeking defined-risk premium sale with a bearish-to-neutral bias.

Reverse Put Calendar

Sell $30 Put 4/10 (IV 161%), Buy $30 Put 5/15 (IV 152%).

Capitalizes on the steep near-term IV term structure by selling extreme short-dated vol and buying back cheaper longer-dated vol. Profits from vol crush and time decay in the short leg, with a long put as a hedge against a break below $30.

Credit: $0.20-$0.40

Max loss: N/A

BE: Complex; best on vol crush/pin.

Mgmt: Close when short leg decays significantly (50%+). Manage if spot approaches $30. The 45 DTE long leg provides a multi-week hedge, improving risk/reward versus a naked short put.

Volatility traders comfortable with diagonal spreads; benefits from pinning or slow grind.

Covered Call Overlay

If long stock, sell $38 Call 4/17 (17 DTE).

Generates income against existing shares in a range-bound, high-IV environment. Strike is above the 1-week expected move high ($38.32) and aligns with near-term resistance. The 17 DTE provides a balance between premium capture and flexibility.

Credit: $1.10-$1.30

Max loss: Unlimited above short strike (stock called away).

BE: Stock price + premium received.

Mgmt: Consider rolling up and out if stock approaches $38. Close if spot breaks below $32.

Existing shareholders looking to enhance yield and reduce cost basis.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFSpot rallies to tag $36.00 (weekly resistance) → Sell $36/$38 call credit spread 4/17.

IFSpot declines to $31.50 (testing put floor) → Sell $30/$28 put spread 5/15.

Exit Triggers

EXITSpot closes above $38.50 (breaks weekly EM high) → Exit all bearish/short call positions.

EXITSpot closes below $29.50 (breaks put floor/gamma flip) → Exit all short put positions and reconsider thesis.

Tactical Summary

Primary thesis: bearish drift toward the $30-$32 support zone, hampered by near-term pinning (positive GEX) but pulled by gravity below max pain. The regime favors selling premium at the edges of the range (puts near $30, calls near $38) due to extreme IV. Top plays: 1) Put spread for defined-risk bearish bias, 2) Reverse calendar for vol traders, 3) Covered call for shareholders. Invalidation: a close above $38.50.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on March 31, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.