Term structure: Very low near-term IV (2026-04-17 ATM 5.0%, 2026-04-24 ATM 7.3%) with a bump in mid-month (2026-05-01 ATM 13.6%).
Spot vs MP: At
GEX regime: Trending ($-114.0M)
Gamma flip: ~$79.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 520,372 (1.8% below spot)
OI concentrations: Large put OI at $79.00 (520,372), $77.00 (418,401) and call OI cluster at $81.00 (210,305). Near-term GEX magnets at $81.00 (+$518.4M) and $80.50 (+$198.7M); max pain sits at $80.00 across front expirations.
#1Put credit spread
Sell 2026-05-15 $80.00/$69.00 put spread
Sell the 2026-05-15 80/69 put credit spread to collect credit while keeping a defined 11-point wing as protection; prefer moderate sizing and manage below the gamma flip ~$79.
Mgmt: Close at 50–65% of max profit; exit or convert to long-dated protection on daily close below ~$79 Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: short_put: Wide spread (61%).; long_put: Wide spread (196%).
#2Put calendar
Sell 2026-04-24 $79.00 put / buy 2026-06-18 $79.00 put
Sell near-term puts into the 5/01 expiry and buy back-month puts to capture term-structure — strike selection around 78–79 to align with OI support.
Mgmt: Trim if IV collapses across both expiries or if price moves decisively through $79
#3Cash-secured put
Sell 2026-05-15 $79.00 cash-secured put
Sell cash-secured puts with 30–45 DTE targeting 0.20–0.30 delta around $77–$78; manage size given negative GEX.
Mgmt: Avoid selling into a close below gamma flip; scale into position and set buyback targets at 50% of collected premium Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: short_put: Wide spread (181%).
!Earnings/windows: 2026-04-17 (2d), 2026-04-24 (9d), 2026-05-01 (16d) — front expirations sit on earnings; avoid selling naked through these events.
!Negative total GEX (-$114.0M) and bearish net premium flow (-$9.7M) — trending regime increases risk of quick one-way moves against short premium.
!Low ATM IV (Avg IV 7.7%) — compressed premium limits edge for naked premium sellers; consider defined-risk structures or calendars.
!Gamma flip ~$79 — a close below this level can accelerate selling pressure and invalidate short put/condor theses.
!Large concentrated put OI at $79/$77/74 can pin short term but also concentrate assignment and liquidity risk if those levels are breached.