base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -1 spot ~6.5% from MP; +0.5 VIX 18.36
Term structure: Front-week IV depressed (1d ATM 22.4%), rising into 2-4 week curve (17d ATM 42.0%), then flattens ~33-37% beyond — good for selling 2-6 week premium where term structure is elevated
Spot vs MP: Above by ~6.5% (spot $332.91 vs near-term MP $312.50 → $315.00 range)
GEX regime: Pinning (Total GEX +$265.1M concentrated at near strikes)
OI concentrations: Large call walls at $345 (55,634 OI), $340 (8,285–8,285 OI), heavy call flow at $330/$335; put floor concentrated at $200-$215 but near-term put clusters at $310 (9,304 OI) and $300 (7,445 OI)
#1put spread
Sell 325/320 put spread exp 2026-05-15 (31 DTE)
Large GEX pin at $325/$330, bullish flow, and elevated mid-term IV (31–42% across the curve) support selling downside defined-risk in the 30–45 DTE band. 325 is OI-listed and ~2.4% below spot — offers decent edge vs expected move.
Mgmt: Take profit at 60–70% of max credit; roll down 1-2 strikes and out 2-4 weeks if price closes below $328.04; cut loss and close if spread trades at 50% of max loss or stock closes below $318 (beyond spread short strike) on daily basis
#2iron condor
Sell 320/315 put spread and 345/350 call spread exp 2026-05-15 (31 DTE)
Wide, defined-risk wings capture pins between strong GEX at 330/335 and heavy call OI at 345. Positive dealer gamma reduces wing-bleed risk near current spot; midsize credit with symmetric reward profile suits neutral-to-slightly-bullish flow.
Mgmt: Close at 50% of max profit; close/hedge if either short strike is tested intraday; roll the tested side out 2–4 weeks and widen by 1 strike only if net credit remains attractive
#3cash-secured put
Sell 330 put exp 2026-04-22 (8 DTE) — defined-risk via CSP (cash-secured)
Short-dated CSP into heavy call/call-flow at 330 (large net flow and GEX +$46.5M). Short-week premium is elevated in the near strikes due to concentrated flow; choose CSP (cash-secured) to avoid naked directional exposure through short-dated pinning events.
Mgmt: Take profit at 50–60% of premium or roll down-and-out if assigned risk is acceptable; close if price closes below $328.04 or if IV spikes >10 pts intra-week
#4covered call
Long stock + sell 340 call exp 2026-05-15 (31 DTE)
If you own shares, selling 340C collects premium against the heavy upside call OI stack at 345 and benefits from pinning below 345. Elevated mid-term IV makes covered calls more attractive than naked calls.
Mgmt: Take profit on call premium at 60% of max; buy back calls if stock rallies toward 340 within 7 calendar days of expiration to avoid assignment, or roll up-and-out for additional credit
!Earnings: 2026-04-23 and 2026-04-29 — avoid naked short premium across earnings; prefer defined-risk spreads or close before announcement
!Gamma/pinning concentration: GEX +$265.1M centered at $330-$335 can snap lower if dealers hedge quickly — watch for fast mean reversion and intraday squeezes
!Heavy call OI at $345 (55,634 OI) creates asymmetric upside cap; aggressive upside flow could compress call premiums and change range dynamics
!Unusual activity: concentrated call flow at $332.50-$335 (4/15 and 4/17 expirations) — short-term directional buy interest could drive intraday gaps into expiries
!IV term kink: front-week IV low (1d ATM 22.4%) while 17d+ IV spikes to ~42% — selling very short-dated naked premium is risky under flow; prefer defined-risk spreads or adjust sizing