base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -0.5 spot 4.3% from MP
Term structure: Significant IV spike at 2026-05-01 (38.2%) vs 2026-04-24 (33.1%) — 5.1 percentage point differential over one week
Spot vs MP: Above by 4.3% (spot $299.99 vs max pain ~$288)
GEX regime: Pinning (GEX +$96.4M)
Gamma flip: ~$215.00 — Far below spot (~$215) — pinning forces dominate near-term
OI concentrations: Call wall $330-$350; Put floor $200-$215; Near-term GEX magnets at $300 (+$19.2M), $302.50 (+$2.8M), $295.00 (+$2.3M)
#1calendar spread
Sell $300 call 2026-05-01 (25 DTE, IV 38.2%) / Buy $300 call 2026-04-24 (18 DTE, IV 33.1%)
Capitalizes on 5.1 vol point differential between May 1st (38.2%) and April 24th (33.1%). $300 strike is largest GEX magnet (+$19.2M) and near spot, enhancing pin probability. Elevated IV in May expiry likely to decay post-event (earnings 2026-04-23), driving convergence.
Mgmt: Close short leg at 80% profit or if IV differential narrows to <2 points. Roll short leg to further expiry if spot moves beyond $305. Exit entire spread if IV term structure flattens.
#2put spread
Sell $295/$290 put spread 2026-05-01 (25 DTE)
Pinning regime with strong GEX support at $295 (+$2.3M). IV elevated at 38.2% for May expiration provides rich premium. Strike aligns with near-term EM lower bound ($290.21).
Mgmt: Close at 65% profit (~$0.90 credit). Exit if spot closes below $290.21 (1w EM lower). Roll up/out if tested, targeting 30-45 DTE remaining.
#3iron condor
Sell $290/$285P x $310/$315C 2026-05-08 (32 DTE)
Wide range between EM bounds (1w: $290.21-$309.76). Positive GEX pinning keeps price contained. Call side targets $310 OI cluster (15,528 OI) with GEX support at $305 (+$647K). Put side uses $290 GEX magnet (+$276.6K).
Mgmt: Close at 50% profit. Adjust if either short strike tested — roll untested side inward. Exit if spot breaches EM bounds.
#4calendar spread
Sell $300 put 2026-05-01 (25 DTE, IV 38.2%) / Buy $300 put 2026-04-24 (18 DTE, IV 33.1%)
Alternative calendar using puts to exploit same IV differential (5.1 points). $300 strike has high GEX (+$19.2M) and OI, increasing pin likelihood. Benefits from IV decay in May leg post-earnings.
Mgmt: Close short leg at 80% profit or if IV differential narrows to <2 points. Roll short leg if spot drops below $295. Exit if IV term structure flattens.
!Earnings on 2026-04-23 (17 days out) — close all short premium positions before announcement to avoid IV crush and gap risk; May 1st IV spike may be earnings-related
!Gamma flip at ~$215 is far below spot, but negative GEX strikes at $230-$245 could accelerate moves if breached
!Unusual put volume at $292.50 (2026-04-10) — monitor for increased downward pressure
!Call OI wall at $330-$350 may cap upside if bullish momentum continues
!Spot 4.3% above max pain — if price reverts toward $288, short puts near $290 may be tested
!IV differential trade (calendar spread) risks directional exposure if spot moves significantly away from $300; manage actively