Term structure: Humped near-term (40-42% for 1-2 DTE), dips to ~33% for 10-17 DTE, then rises again to ~39% for May expirations.
Spot vs MP: Below max pain by 4.9% (spot $287.56 vs MP $302)
GEX regime: Strong Pinning (GEX +$56.6M)
Gamma flip: ~$215.00 — Far below spot at ~$215. Market structure strongly supportive of mean reversion/pinning above this level.
OI concentrations: Major Put Walls: $215 (16,944 OI), $200 (15,973 OI). Major Call Walls: $345 (56,453 OI), $340 (42,898 OI), $300 (22,976 OI).
#1put spread
Sell $280/$275 Put Spread exp 2026-04-17 (17 DTE)
Strike aligns with near-term max pain ($280) and is $7.56 below spot. High 33.9% IV for this expiration provides good credit. Strong pinning regime supports staying above this level.
Mgmt: Close at 65% profit. Exit if GOOGL closes below $275. Roll down/out if tested but pinning thesis holds.
#2iron condor
Sell $275/$270 Put Spread & $300/$305 Call Spread exp 2026-04-17 (17 DTE)
Capitalizes on the strong pinning range between the $280 max pain and the $300 call wall. Expected move is ±$18.33, placing wings outside this range. High IV and positive GEX favor range-bound price action.
Mgmt: Close at 50% profit. Manage legs independently: roll tested side out in time. Close entire position if spot breaches either short strike.
#3cash-secured put
Sell $280 Put exp 2026-05-01 (31 DTE)
For those comfortable with assignment. Strikes at key max pain level with 31 DTE at peak IV (39.2%). Collects substantial premium with a 6.3% downside cushion. Bullish flow (P/C 0.71) supports bullish-to-neutral bias.
Mgmt: Roll down/out at 21 DTE if ITM. Close at 70% profit. Be prepared to take assignment below $280, which is a logical support area.
#4call credit spread
Sell $300/$305 Call Spread exp 2026-04-24 (24 DTE)
Targets the massive $300 call wall (22,976 OI) which should act as a ceiling. Spot is 4.3% below this strike. IV of 35% for this expiry provides decent premium.
Mgmt: Close at 65% profit. Exit if GOOGL closes above $302. Consider rolling up/out if bullish momentum continues toward the strike.
!Earnings on 2026-04-23 (~3 weeks). Close or roll all short premium positions well before this date to avoid earnings IV crush on long-dated options and event risk.
!Gamma flip is estimated at $215. A break below this level could lead to accelerated selling as dealer hedging flips from supportive to amplifying downtrend.
!Unusual volume in weekly calls ($297.5, $302.5 for 4/01) indicates potential for short-term upside volatility. Favor defined-risk spreads over naked shorts.
!Net premium flow is strongly bullish (+$74.8M). While supportive of put selling, it suggests persistent buying pressure that could challenge call credit spreads.
!Max pain is trending downward across expirations ($302 -> $295), indicating a gravitational pull lower over time. Favor put-side bias in strategies.