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GOOGL

Alphabet Inc.Close $380.34EOD only
Max Pain
$385.00
Next expiry Jun 1, 2026
Expected Move
±$5.36
1.4% from close
Price Gap
+4.66
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
37
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
0.90
Balanced positioning
Consensus
9.0/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: May 29, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects GOOGL options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 29, 2026 close
GOOGL Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close April 14, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from April 14, 2026. A newer earnings report is available for May 26, 2026.

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Earnings Verdict

GOOGL shows a pinning regime with strong dealer positioning (Total GEX +$265.1M) and concentrated call demand around 330–345. Best strategy is a premium-selling, range-focused trade (short iron/condor) into the narrow 2–6 day expected moves. Key risk: a guidance or surprise that produces a gap beyond the EM guardrails (2d $330.60/$335.23, 1w $328.04/$337.79) which would blow past dealer pinning and amplify moves.

Confidence:
7.5 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned (GEX +$265.1M, Flow Bullish); +1 GEX positive (pinning); -1 spot 6.5% from MP; +0.5 VIX 18.36
Most important: Watch IV term structure and the 3–8d expirations (ATM 27.3% on 2026-04-17 vs 31.4% on 2026-04-22) for evidence of an upcoming event and how much premium is concentrated into the short-dated expiries.
📌Pinning is strong: Total GEX +$265.1M with a concentrated +$46.5M at $330
💸Massive call premium at $330 (Net $44,896,666) — options flow is skewed toward upside exposure
⚠️Short-term EM narrow: 2d $330.60-$335.23. Small gaps will blow short premium positions.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
Normal
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Bullish
Spot vs MP
Above

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: Not confirmedterm_structure_kink

Expected moves:

  • 2026-04-15 (1d): 7.32 8.0?  (use listed bounds) ±$2.32 (0.7%) [$330.60 - $335.23]
  • 2026-04-17 (3d): ±$7.38 (2.2%) [$325.54 - $340.29]
  • 2026-04-20 (6d): ±$4.88 (1.5%) [$328.04 - $337.79]

IV Setup

Term structure: Short-dated ATM IVs show a small kink into the 3–8d window: 2026-04-15 ATM 22.4% → 2026-04-17 ATM 27.3% → 2026-04-22 ATM 31.4%. Longer-dated IV rehanging higher (2026-05-01 ATM 42.0%).

Crush estimate: Expected post-event move is likely to knock short-dated IV down substantially. A reasonable crush estimate for the concentrated short-dates is ~8–12 vol pts (short-dated ATM IVs currently 22–31%; expect single-digit post-event ATM IVs drop back toward mid-teens–low-20s on the shortest expiries).

Skew: Skew is call-heavy in premiums and flow (Top Premium Flow net leaning into calls at strikes $330, $320, $335) but puts show localized demand (notable put prints at $322.50 and heavy OI at $300/$215). Overall calls are richer in flow.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 100% (4/4 recent listed quarters beat estimates in the provided table)

Avg move vs expected: Past quarters show outsized realized surprises (EPS beats) but insufficient data to compute exact realized vs EM; historical surprises: +0.07, +0.27, +0.06, +0.40.

Directional bias: Bias toward upside on reported EPS (recent surprises are positive across the last 4 entries).

Key Levels

1$312.50 (max pain 2026-04-15)
2$300.00 (max pain 2026-04-17)
3$330.00 (near-term GEX concentration +$46.5M; pin magnet; -0.9% from spot)
4$335.00 (EM guardrail / near-term GEX +$10.5M; +0.6% from spot)
5EM 2d range: $330.60 - $335.23
6EM 1w range: $328.04 - $337.79
7Call OI wall: $350.00; Put floor cluster: $200.00-$215.00

Flow Highlights

Very large premium flow at $330.00: Call $58,344,298 / Put $13,447,632 (Net $44,896,666).

Aggressive call-buying / call premium accumulation centered at $330; aligns with dealer pinning around 330 and concentrated GEX (+$46.5M at $330).

Top OI sits at $345.00 CALL OI=55,634 and $340.00 CALL OI=51,531 and $335.00 CALL OI=50,097.

Large call OI shelters the upside wall between $335-$345 — dealers may delta-hedge into that area, creating resistance above current spot.

Unusual put print: 2026-04-17 PUT $322.50 vol=11,914 OI=202 (IV 28.1%).

Some outsized protective/hedge flow ~3% below spot — shorts or institutional hedges that could limit downside or indicate targeted protection.

Strategies

Short iron condor (short-dated, premium sell)
Sell 2026-04-17 335C / Buy 2026-04-17 340C; Sell 2026-04-17 325P / Buy 2026-04-17 320P
Credit: $1.50-$2.20
Max loss: $3.80
Max gain: $2.20
BE: $332.50 / $327.80 (upper / lower theoretical breakevens referenced to net credit)
Trigger: Enter 1–2 days before the suspected event if net premium remains elevated and IV doesn't spike in the last session.
High total GEX (+$265.1M) and concentrated call premium at 330–345 create pinning pressure; short iron captures premium while the 1w EM is narrow.
Outperforms: GOOGL stays inside the 1w EM bounds ($328.04 - $337.79) and dealer pinning around 330/335 holds.
Underperforms: A gap >1w EM (e.g., gap beyond ~$340 or below ~$325) occurs on guidance or surprise; liquidity evaporates.
Long straddle (direction-agnostic, event play)
Buy 2026-04-17 332.50 straddle (buy 332.50C + 332.50P)
Max loss: $14.80
Max gain: Unlimited
BE: Approx strike 7.38 on either side (3d EM): ~325.12 / ~339.88 if cost ≈ $7.38 each side; breakevens scale with actual fill
Trigger: Enter if you expect a >EM move or if short-dated IV has not yet re-priced higher; use tight sizing.
Historical EPS surprises have been positive and occasionally large; if you expect a material beat or miss-driven guidance, straddle benefits.
Outperforms: Realized move exceeds EM (3d EM ±$7.38 or >~2.2%), or guidance creates a big gap.
Underperforms: Stock pins inside the EM, or IV collapses sharply post-event without requisite price move.
Call fly / long broken-wing call (upside-biased defined-risk)
Buy 2026-04-20 335C / Sell 2026-04-20 340C x2 / Buy 2026-04-20 345C (small debit or near-zero debit depending on fills)
Debit: $0.20-$0.80
Max loss: $3.80
Max gain: $3.20
BE: Roughly between 338 and 342 depending on net debit
Trigger: Use if directional bias is upside post-earnings (historical EPS beats) but you want defined risk.
Heavy call OI in the 335–345 band makes a defined-risk upside structure efficient for buyers expecting a measured gap up.
Outperforms: Moderate upside into the $335–345 call-OI wall where call supply concentrates; underperforms on minor moves or downside.
Underperforms: No upside follow-through and IV crush removes premium before move arrives.

Risk Assessment

!Gap risk: EMs are narrow near-term (2d $330.60–$335.23, 3d ±$7.38). A guidance-driven gap beyond these ranges can cause rapid losses on short premium trades.
!IV crush impact: Short-dated IV sits at 27.3% (2026-04-17) and 31.4% (2026-04-22) — expect a meaningful IV drop post-event (~8–12 vol pts) that hurts long-vol positions and helps premium sellers.
!Liquidity and fills: Large OI at 335/340/345 and heavy flow at 330 means decent liquidity at these strikes; further OTM strikes have thinner liquidity (watch bid/ask on broken wings).
!Sizing: Given dealer pinning (GEX +$265.1M) and concentrated flow, keep size small on long-vol trades and moderate on short premium to avoid gamma-rupture on a gap.
!Pinning risk: Max pain trend is falling (312 → 300 across expirations). While near-term pinning sits ~330–335, MP drift lower means large sustained upside could reposition dealers and produce volatility spikes.

What to Watch

?IV trajectory into the 3–8d expirations (2026-04-17 ATM 27.3% and 2026-04-22 ATM 31.4%)
?Unusual activity at $322.50P (2026-04-17) and concentrated call premium at $330/$335 (Top Premium Flow)
?Price behavior around the GEX concentrations: $330 (+$46.5M), $345 (+$35.9M), $325 (+$13.3M)
?Large prints and changes in OI at 335 and 345 calls (these form the upside wall/resistance)
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on April 14, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

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What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.