Earnings Verdict
GOOGL 62d from earnings. High confidence (9) from bullish flow & pinning. 100% beat rate suggests upside bias.
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); +1 spot 0.5% from MP; +1 VIX 17
Most important: Bullish flow with massive call volume; gamma pinning at $385.
📈100% beat rate last 5 quarters, bullish.
⚠️36k vol on $387.5 call (5/22) vs 2.5k OI; likely closing.
Regime Classification
Earnings Overview
Next earnings: 2026-07-23 (62 days)explicit
Expected moves:
- 2026-05-26 (4d): ±$5.77 (1.5%)
- 2026-05-27 (5d): ±$7.80 (2.0%)
- 2026-05-29 (7d): ±$10.62 (2.8%)
IV Setup
Term structure: Near-term vols rising: 1.5% (4d) → 2.8% (7d); earnings too distant to affect.
Crush estimate: Earnings 62d out; no near-term crush; normal decay on weekly options.
Skew: Active put buying at $382.5/$387.5; calls OI heavy $410-$450.
Historical Context
Beat rate: 100% (5/5 quarters)
Avg move vs expected: Not specified; 100% beat rate suggests consistent upside.
Directional bias: Bullish due to strong beat history.
Key Levels
1EM guardrails: 1w $375.17/$390.77
2Max pain pins: $385 (2026-05-22); $388 (2026-05-26); $390 (2026-05-27)
Flow Highlights
Unusual 11.5k calls at $387.5 (5/26); 36k calls at $387.5 (5/22); net premium +$59M.
Aggressive bullish bets into pinning; traders targeting $387.5+.
Strategies
Risk Assessment
!Gamma pinning at $385 may cap upside.
!Large call OI at $410+ could resist rallies.
What to Watch
?Max pain $385 (5/22); guardrails $375/$390.
?Unusual 7.8k calls at $397.5 (5/29).