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GOOGL

Alphabet Inc.Close $380.34EOD only
Max Pain
$385.00
Next expiry Jun 1, 2026
Expected Move
±$5.36
1.4% from close
Price Gap
+4.66
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
37
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
0.90
Balanced positioning
Consensus
9.0/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: May 29, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects GOOGL options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 29, 2026 close
GOOGL Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close April 13, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from April 13, 2026. A newer earnings report is available for May 26, 2026.

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Earnings Verdict

GOOGL is in a pinning, bullish regime with dealers long gamma (GEX +$190.8M) and flow heavily skewed to calls (large premium flow at $335/$340). Best strategy is an IV-crush / premium-selling approach into the near-term windows (short premium/iron condor sized to EM), or a small, directional call-spread if you want asymmetric upside. Key risk: a guidance-driven gap that exceeds the 1-7 day EM rails ($316.06 - $329.48) and overwhelms dealer pinning.

Confidence:
8.5 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); +0.5 VIX 19.1
Most important: Monitor heavy call premium flows at $335/$340 and GEX concentration around $320-$325 — they are driving pin risk and spot magnetism.
📊GEX +$190.8M concentrated near $320-$325 — strong pinning into near-term expiries.
🔥Net call premium flow extreme at $335/$340 (>$46M each) — one-sided upside bets are in place.
🕰️No confirmed earnings date in feed — use term-structure and EM guardrails (2d $316.06/$326.56, 1w $313.13/$329.48) to time trades.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
Normal
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Bullish
Spot vs MP
Above

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: Not confirmedterm_structure_kink

Expected moves:

  • 2d $316.06/$326.56
  • 1w $313.13/$329.48
  • 2w $298.06/$344.56

IV Setup

Term structure: Short-dated ATM IV is elevated into the 2-11 day windows: ATM 22.8% (2d), 26.1% (4d), 25.1% (7d) with a step-up to the 18d/25d front-months (40.2% / 39.5%).

Crush estimate: ~15-20 vol pts to longer-dated levels post-event for front-week expiries (expect IV front to snap back toward the 18–25d range if event resolves), with immediate drop back toward ~25% for 7d expiries.

Skew: Puts cheaper relative to calls in premium flow; large call-buying at $335/$340 indicates one-sided skew on the upside.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 100% (4/4 quarters listed beat estimates)

Avg move vs expected: N/A (no explicit realized move figures provided); historical EPS surprises skew positive which biases upside on guidance-driven moves

Directional bias: Biased to upside (all 4 listed quarters showed positive EPS surprises and likely positive gaps)

Key Levels

1$320.00
2$317.50
3$310.00
4$326.56 (2d EM upper)
5$329.48 (1w EM upper)
6$340.00

Flow Highlights

Large net call premium at $335.00 and $340.00 (Net $48,043,871 at $335; Net $46,080,900 at $340).

Concentrated bullish bets; dealers are likely long underlying via delta hedging and will pin toward nearby positive-GEX strikes (320-325) unless a big gap occurs.

Big OI concentration at $345/$340/$330 calls (55,872; 40,465; 29,174 OI).

Structural upside walls begin at $340-$350; moves above $340 would require absorbing heavy call OI and could accelerate once those levels are cleared.

Strategies

Short iron-condor (front-week/earnings crush sell)
Sell 4/15 315C / buy 4/15 325C; sell 4/15 305P / buy 4/15 295P (net credit)
Credit: $1.20-$2.20
Max loss: $8.80
Max gain: $2.20
BE: 305 + credit / 315 - credit (roughly 306.2 / 313.8 with mid credit)
Trigger: Enter 1–2 days before the short-dated IV peak (if you can collect >= $1.20 total credit).
High GEX (+$190.8M) and pin magnets at $320/$322.50/$325 create dealer support near the center; heavy call flow inflates skew and makes premium selling attractive over the short front.
Outperforms: Stock stays within 2d–7d EM rails ($316.06 - $329.48); IV compresses after event.
Underperforms: A guidance-driven gap >~3% outside the EM occurs (exceeds $329.48 or falls below $313.13).
Long straddle (vol-buy) — short horizon
Buy 4/20 320 straddle (buy 4/20 320C + buy 4/20 320P)
Debit: $7.50-$9.50
Max loss: $9.50
Max gain: Unlimited
BE: ≈ $312.5 / $329.5 assuming $8.50 premium
Trigger: Enter if IV does not spike further and you expect a >30% beat/outlier move versus the 7d EM (~±$8.18).
Use when you expect a guidance surprise or large volatility event that beats the market's expectation — straddle captures either side but suffers from IV crush risk.
Outperforms: Actual absolute move exceeds the 7d EM (>$8.18) and realized vol runs above front-week IV.
Underperforms: Stock pins near $320 and IV collapses; or move is within EM and IV crush erodes premium.
Upside call-spread (asymmetric directional)
Buy 05/01 330C and sell 05/01 335C (debit call spread)
Debit: $0.90-$1.60
Max loss: $1.60
Max gain: $3.40
BE: $331.60
Trigger: Enter after earnings if price starts trending toward the $335 call OI wall or as a directional pre-event if you expect upside beyond the 1w EM.
Front-month IV is lower (25–40% depending on expiry) and May 1 shows substantial expected move; this spread buys upside with contained cost and limited IV sensitivity vs buying naked calls.
Outperforms: A sustained post-earnings move toward $335-$340 materializes (captures upside while limiting cost and Vega exposure).
Underperforms: Event pins around $320 or moves modestly inside the 1w EM without follow-through.

Risk Assessment

!Gap risk: Guidance or rev commentary can gap price beyond 1–7 day EM rails ($316.06 - $329.48); short premium can be quickly BOPMed.
!IV crush: Short-dated IV (2–11d) shows a step-up then is likely to snap back; sellers benefit but buyers of front-week options face sharp post-event IV decay.
!Liquidity: Chain is liquid (Total OI 2,440,146; active strikes 137). Some strikes (320/322.5/325/330/335/340) show concentrated OI and flow — trade with size awareness.
!Sizing: Given strong GEX (+$190.8M) and concentrated call flow, keep position sizes moderate; large short premium positions can be pin-vulnerable if a gap occurs.

What to Watch

?IV trajectory into the 2–7 day windows (ATM IV: 22.8% at 2d → 25.1% at 7d).
?Unusual big option prints at $335/$340 (already seen massive call premium flow).
?Price action around pin magnets: $320.00, $322.50, $325.00 — sustained break below $317.50/$310.00 removes dealer pin support.
?Max pain trend: falling MP (from $312 → $300) which suggests longer-dated dealer positioning nudging lower over time.
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on April 13, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

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What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.