Term structure: Humped at 24-38 DTE (56-58%), lower at 10-17 DTE (~52%).
Spot vs MP: At $872.90, just below max pain $880 (0.8% away).
GEX regime: Pinning (GEX +$5.7M — mean-reverting)
Gamma flip: ~$200.00 — Gamma flip is far below at ~$200. Current positive GEX supports pinning near current spot.
OI concentrations: Major Put OI: $200 (2,668), $600 (2,158), $620 (1,967). Major Call OI: $670 (3,267), $860 (2,680), $800 (2,546).
#1put spread
Sell $800/$795 Put Spread, exp 2026-04-17 (17 DTE)
High IV provides rich premium. Short strike aligns with major call OI at $800, which may act as support. Well below spot (~8.4%) and outside the 10-day expected move. Defined risk is crucial in this low-liquidity environment.
Mgmt: Close at 65% max profit. Exit if price closes below $830. Roll only if credit >50% of original. Assume bid-ask spread ~$0.30.
#2call spread
Sell $950/$955 Call Spread, exp 2026-04-24 (24 DTE)
Short strike is a top OI call ($1000 is #1, $950 has high flow). It's 8.8% above spot and outside the 24-day expected move. High IV makes call premium attractive. Positive GEX environment discourages sharp rallies.
Mgmt: Close at 65% max profit. Exit if price closes above $920. Assume bid-ask spread ~$0.30.
#3cash-secured put
Sell $800 Put, exp 2026-05-15 (45 DTE)
For capital-secure sellers willing to own the stock. Striking at major OI support ($800) collects massive premium (credit ~3.5% of strike) due to high IV. Provides a 8.4% buffer from current price.
Mgmt: Manage at 21 DTE (roll or close). Roll down/out for a credit if tested. Be prepared for assignment below $800. Assume wide bid-ask spread (~$2.00).
#4iron condor (illustrative)
Sell $800/$795 Put Spread & $950/$955 Call Spread, exp 2026-04-24 (24 DTE)
Illustrative only due to liquidity. Combines top put and call spread ideas into one trade, capitalizing on the pinning regime and wide expected move ($767-$979). High IV boosts credit.
Mgmt: Close entire position at 50% max profit. Exit if price breaches either short strike. Legging in/out may be difficult; assume very wide spreads.
!Earnings estimated 2026-04-22 (~3 weeks). Close or roll all short-term positions before this date. Never sell naked options through earnings.
!Extremely low liquidity. Bid-ask spreads will be wide, making fills poor and management difficult. Use limit orders exclusively.
!Gamma flip is estimated far below at ~$200. While positive GEX supports pinning now, a break below major OI at $800 could see accelerated selling.
!Max pain trend is falling ($880 → $800), indicating longer-term OI is building support lower. This supports put selling but warns against being too bullish.
!Unusual put volume at $670 (exp 4/10) with IV >100%. This is a potential hedge or bearish bet far below; monitor for any spot price breakdown.
!Net premium flow is positive ($58.8M), but P/C ratio is only 1.24, indicating not overwhelmingly bearish positioning.