GEV Flow Report

Analysis based on market close March 31, 2026

Flow Verdict

Confidence:

7.5 / 10

base 5; +1.5 P/C ratio >1.2; +1 net premium bearish; +0.5 spot at max pain; -0.5 high IV suggests hedging

Watch next session: $860-$870 put block activity; Any call flow to challenge the $880 max pain level; Volume in the $620 put (OI 1,967) for hedging context

Flow Summary

Net premium: +$58.8M bearish

P/C volume ratio: 1.24 — put-dominant

P/C OI ratio: 1.09 — slight put lean

Flow shows a clear defensive tilt with put volume exceeding calls and net premium flowing into puts. The market is positioned for a test lower from the current max pain level at $880, with significant hedging activity in the near-term.

Notable Prints

GEV 4/2 $950 Call

Vol: 880

OI: 207

Vol/OI: 4.2x

IV: 46.4%

Notional: ~$2.15M (from premium flow data)

Intent: Lottery ticket / OTM call purchase

Dual read: Directional upside bet or part of a complex spread (e.g., call spread seller buying wing)

Read-through: High volume relative to OI suggests new positioning. The low 46.4% IV (vs. ATM ~52%) indicates these were likely bought, not sold. This is a bullish outlier in otherwise bearish flow.

GEV 4/2 $840 Put

Vol: 667

OI: 139

Vol/OI: 4.8x

IV: 53.0%

Notional: ~$1.4M (estimated from flow context)

Intent: Fresh downside protection or directional bet

Dual read: Bought put (bearish) or sold put (bullish/cash-secured)

Read-through: High vol/oi and strike ~$33 below spot suggests new bearish positioning or hedging for a move toward the lower expected move boundary ($837.05).

GEV 4/2 $850 Put

Vol: 705

OI: 237

Vol/OI: 3.0x

IV: 50.2%

Notional: ~$1.4M (estimated from flow context)

Intent: Hedging near expected move low

Dual read: Protective put buying or spread leg

Read-through: Part of a cluster of put activity between $840-$870. The $850 strike aligns with the 4/10 max pain and the lower expected move boundary, indicating a key defensive level.

GEV 4/10 $670 Put

Vol: 254

OI: 129

Vol/OI: 2.0x

IV: 100.4%

Notional: Significant (high IV implies high premium)

Intent: Tail-risk hedge or volatility purchase

Dual read: Deep OTM protective put (bearish) or sold put (very bullish)

Read-through: Extremely high IV (100.4%) is a red flag. This is likely a bought put for catastrophic hedge, not a directional bet. The $670 strike is also a major OI call wall, creating a complex pin risk.

Institutional Positioning

Call additions: Minimal near-term. Notable OI in OTM calls ($1000, $670) which are likely older, speculative positions or part of spreads.

Put additions: Concentrated in April monthly expirations ($840, $850, $860, $870). Also significant volume in the $620 put (1,827 vol vs 1,967 OI), indicating heavy hedging or rolling.

GEX/DEX consistency: Yes — Positive GEX (+$5.7M) suggests net gamma long, which aligns with a 'pinning' regime. Flow is adding puts (bearish delta) against a gamma-long book, consistent with dealers suppressing volatility and pinning price.

OI clusters: Major Call Walls: $670 (3,267 OI), $860 (2,680), $800 (2,546), $1000 (2,354). Major Put Walls: $200 (2,668 OI - likely legacy), $600 (2,158), $620 (1,967), $650 (1,925). Creates a complex pin zone between $800-$860 with a massive $670 call wall acting as a potential magnet if breached.

Hedging evidence: Strong evidence: 1) Cluster of put buying in the $840-$870 zone for April expiry. 2) High-volume activity in the $620 put. 3) The deep OTM $670 put with 100% IV is a classic tail-risk hedge. This suggests institutions are actively hedging downside, especially with earnings approaching (4/22).

Max pain context: Spot ($872.90) is currently at the 3/27 max pain ($880) but below it. The forward max pain trend is decisively lower ($880 → $800), providing a gravitational pull for price to drift down toward $800-$850 cluster over the next month.

Signal vs Noise

~The massive premium flow at deep OTM calls ($520, $130, $540, $700) is almost certainly noise — likely the result of a few large, legacy positions or structured products. It does not reflect current directional sentiment.

~High volume in the $620 Put (1,827) is notable but against very high existing OI (1,967). This is more likely rolling or adjusting a massive existing hedge, not a new directional signal.

~The $200 Put with 2,668 OI is a legacy position (strike is 77% below spot) and should be ignored for near-term flow analysis.

Key Conclusions

⚠️Flow is defensively positioned with put volume dominance and positive net premium (bearish), targeting a break below the $880 max pain level.

📌Market is in a 'pinning' regime (positive GEX) with spot at max pain. Dealers are long gamma, suppressing volatility and increasing the odds of a grind toward the next cluster of pain points near $850-$860.

🛡️Significant institutional hedging is evident in April puts ($840-$870) and in the deep OTM $670 put, indicating preparation for potential downside volatility, possibly ahead of April earnings.

🎯Watch the $860-$870 zone. Sustained put flow here, against the $860 call wall, will confirm the bearish flow thesis for a move toward $850 (4/10 max pain) and potentially $800 (4/17 max pain).

Read the Flow analysis for GEV. This AI-generated report covers regime classification, key price levels, strategy recommendations, and actionable trade ideas drawn from end-of-day options data including gamma exposure, delta exposure, and implied volatility.