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GEV

GE Vernova Inc.Close $1024.52EOD only
Max Pain
$1030.00
Next expiry May 22, 2026
Expected Move
±$38.50
3.8% from close
Price Gap
+5.48
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
3
Low premium
P/C OI
1.28
Slightly put-heavy
Consensus
4/4
Partial coverage
Published snapshot: May 20, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects GEV options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 20, 2026 close
GEV Directional Report
Analysis based on market close March 31, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Neutral-to-bearish with a strong pinning force near current spot ($872.90) but a clear multi-week downward drift in max pain. Confidence: 9/10. The high positive GEX creates a powerful short-term magnet, but the falling MP ladder, mixed flow, and extremely high IV suggest the pin is a temporary dam against a longer-term bearish current.

Confidence:
9 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); +1 spot 0.8% from MP. No override: mechanical score captures the high-conviction pinning regime.
Supports: GEX +$5.7M (strong pinning), spot at MP ($880), net premium +$58.8M (bullish flow).
Conflicts: MP trend falling ($880 → $800), P/C Volume Ratio 1.24 (bearish flow signal), IV 59.1% (extremely elevated).
📌Strong GEX pin at $880, but MP ladder slopes down to $800 by April.
⚠️IV >59% — volatility is the dominant regime feature.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
IV 59.1% — extremely high, favoring premium sellers but with elevated tail risk.
Gamma Regime
Pinning
GEX +$5.7M concentrated near spot — creates a powerful short-term pinning effect.
Flow Regime
Mixed
Mixed — net premium is bullish (+$58.8M), but P/C volume ratio of 1.24 shows heavy put activity.
Spot vs Max Pain
At
At MP ($880) — spot is magnetized for the 3/27 expiry, but subsequent expiries have lower MP.
Thesis duration: Multi-week — Max pain ladder trends down from $880 (3/27) to $800 (4/17), indicating a persistent gravitational pull lower over the next 2-4 weeks. GEX sign remains positive, supporting a pinning/range-bound regime that slowly drifts.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days
$837.05$908.75
Strong GEX pin dominates; break below $837.05 (2d EM low) signals failure.
Next 1 week
$808.45$937.35
MP for 4/10 expiry is $850; pin drift lower expected as near-term expiry passes.
Next 2 weeks
$790.10$955.70
MP for 4/17 is $800; this is the primary gravitational target absent a catalyst.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $880 (2026-03-27); $860 (2026-04-02); $850 (2026-04-10)
EM guardrails: 2d $837.05/$908.75; 1w $808.45/$937.35
Support: $200.00 · $600.00 · $620.00
Resistance: $1000.00 · $1000.00
Gamma flip: ~$200.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 2,668
Structural: **Call OI wall at $1000** is a distant cap. **Put floor is layered between $200-$650**, with significant OI at $600/$620/$650 — these are far OTM and represent structural hedging, not near-term support.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+5.7M

DEX: +5.7M shares

Gamma flip: ~$200 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 2,668)

NTM gamma: Gamma flip is ~$200, far below spot. This means dealer hedging is **long gamma** across the entire relevant price range ($800-$950), reinforcing the pinning behavior. A move ±2% from here would see dealers **selling into strength** (above $890) and **buying into weakness** (below $855), acting as a stabilizer.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV 59.1% — extremely high standalone. Implies expensive options; selling premium has statistical edge.

Term structure: **Humped** — peaks at 57.0% for 4/24 expiry (near earnings on 4/22), then declines. 2-day IV (52.0%) is lower than 10-day (52.9%), indicating near-term pinning confidence.

Skew: **Extreme OTM put skew**: $670 Put (4/10) traded at 100.4% IV. This is a clear vol-selling opportunity for defined-risk strategies like put spreads above that strike.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: +$58.8M bullish; P/C vol 1.24 (bearish), P/C OI 1.09 (slight put bias).

Directional prints: **$950C 4/02 vol 880 vs OI 207 (4.2x) at 46.4% IV** — likely bought calls for upside lottery. **$840P 4/02 vol 667 vs OI 139 (4.8x) at 53.0% IV** — likely bought puts for near-term hedge. The $880 strike shows net negative premium (-$1.4M), indicating heavy put activity at the pin, consistent with the P/C volume ratio.

Unusual: **$670P 4/10 at 100.4% IV** — extreme volatility purchase far OTM, likely a tail hedge or volatility speculation.

Risks & Catalysts

!**Earnings catalyst (4/22)**: High implied vol (57% for 4/24) priced in; post-event vol crush is a major risk for long premium positions.
!**Pin break**: A close below the 2-day EM low ($837.05) could accelerate selling as the pinning force weakens.
!**Gamma flip absence**: With the flip at ~$200, there is no nearby level where dealer hedging flips to accelerating moves, reducing tail risk within the expected range.
!**IV collapse**: If the stock remains pinned, high IV will decay, punishing long vol positions.

Strategy Viability

StrategyEdgeBest SetupPrimary Risk
Iron condorModerate-Weak
GEX positive, but VIX context N/A and IV >59% is extreme. Edge is moderate-weak due to high volatility and falling MP drift.
Drift below $850 breaks lower wing; high IV means wide wings for credit.
Short stockModerate
Aligns with falling MP trend and high IV (borrow cost may be high).
Strong near-term GEX pin creates whipsaw risk; defined-risk bearish spreads are better.
Covered callStrong
Sell ~$900C for 4/17 or 4/24 expiry. Captures high IV premium while positioned for a slow drift lower.
Capped upside if stock rallies through pin; shares could depreciate.
Cash-secured put / put spreadModerate-Strong
Sell $840/$830 put spread 4/17. Collect premium below the 1-week EM support with defined risk.
Accelerated drift below $800.
Long callsWeak
Buying calls is expensive (IV 59%) and against the MP drift; only for tactical pin-break above $910.
IV crush and theta decay in a pinning regime.
Long puts / bear put spreadModerate-Strong
Buy $860P / Sell $840P 4/17. Targets drift to $850 MP, financed by selling lower put. Aligns with MP trend.
Remains pinned at $880; time decay.
Calendar/diagonalModerate
**Reverse Calendar**: Sell high-IV 4/24 ($950C, IV~57%), buy lower-IV 6/18 ($950C, IV~54%). Bets on post-earnings vol crush in near term.
Directional move through short strike.
PMCC / LEAPS diagonalModerate
Buy LEAPS (e.g., Jan 2027 $800C, IV~55%), sell 30-45 DTE calls against it (e.g., Apr $900C). Leverages high IV for long-dated purchase, collects premium on short calls.
Capital intensive; long-dated IV still elevated.
Long stockModerate-Weak
Neutral edge given conflicting pin (bullish) vs. MP drift (bearish). Better to sell premium against shares.
Drift to $800 MP.

Top Plays

#1
Bear Put Spread (Targeting MP Drift)
Buy $860P / Sell $840P, Exp 4/17
Directly expresses the multi-week bearish MP drift from $880 to $800. The short $840P reduces cost basis, placing breakeven at $852.80, just above the 4/10 MP of $850. Benefits from high IV on entry.
Debit: $9.50-$11.50
Max loss: $9.50
BE: $850.50
Mgmt: Take profit at 50-70% of max profit ($5-7 debit). Exit if spot closes above $880 (pin holds strong) or if IV collapses >10 points pre-earnings.
Traders with a bearish bias seeking defined risk, avoiding the pitfalls of shorting in a pinning regime.
#2
Covered Call (Premium Harvest in High IV)
Own shares, Sell $900C, Exp 4/24
Optimal for existing shareholders. Sells into the peak IV (57%) around earnings, collecting hefty premium while setting a sell target above the pin and call OI wall. The 30 DTE aligns with the multi-week drift thesis, providing time for the thesis to play out.
Credit: $28.00-$32.00
Max loss: Unlimited (share depreciation)
BE: $844.90
Mgmt: Roll up and out if spot approaches $900. Consider closing for 50% profit if IV drops sharply post-earnings.
Existing shareholders looking to generate income and reduce cost basis, comfortable with upside cap.
#3
Defined-Risk Put Spread (Premium Sale)
Sell $840P / Buy $830P, Exp 4/17
A higher-probability, credit-based play on the pin holding above the 1-week EM support. Sells elevated IV with defined risk. The 4/17 expiry provides a buffer through the expected pin drift and captures time decay. Better than a naked put due to defined risk in a high-vol environment.
Credit: $3.20-$3.80
Max loss: $6.80
BE: $836.80
Mgmt: Close at 60-80% max profit. Exit on a close below $830 (short strike).
Premium sellers bullish/neutral on direction, wanting defined risk and high implied vol to sell.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers
IFIf spot rallies to test $910 (2d EM high proxy) and rejects → Enter bear put spread ($860/$840P) 4/17.
IFIf spot drops to $850 (4/10 MP) and holds for 2 hours → Sell put spread ($840/$830P) 4/17 for credit.
Exit Triggers
EXITIf spot closes below $837.05 (2d EM low) → Exit all short put positions and reconsider bearish thesis acceleration.
EXITIf spot closes above $937.35 (1w EM high) → Exit all bearish positions (put spreads, short stock).

Tactical Summary

Primary thesis: A strong near-term pin at $880 will slowly erode, with price drifting toward the $800 max pain level over the next 2-3 weeks amid extremely high volatility. The regime favors selling premium (covered calls, put spreads) and defined-risk directional plays aligned with the MP drift. Invalidation is a close above $937.35. Top Plays: 1) Bear Put Spread for directional bearish bias; 2) Covered Call for shareholders to harvest high IV; 3) Put Spread for premium sellers betting the pin holds above $840.
How to Use These Reports
This directional reflects the market close on March 31, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

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What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.