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EFA

iShares MSCI EAFE ETFClose $104.41EOD only

Max Pain

$100.00

Next expiry Jun 26, 2026

Expected Move

±$4.05

3.9% from close

Price Gap

-4.41

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

High premium

P/C OI

2.08

Slightly put-heavy

Consensus

6.0/10

Neutral tilt

Published snapshot: Jun 18, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects EFA options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

Jun 18, 2026 close

EFA Directional Report

Analysis based on market close June 18, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Mixed signals: negative GEX and mixed flow vs near-MP spot and low VIX. Neutral-bearish bias, range $100-108. Multi-week consolidation.

Confidence:

6 / 10

Base 5; -1 GEX/flow conflict; +1 spot near MP; +1 VIX 16 = 6

Supports: Spot $104 near MP, low VIX, support at 102
Conflicts: Negative GEX, mixed flow, European macro risk

📉Negative GEX ($30.8M) limits upside

📍Spot near MP $104 provides support

🌐VIX 16 normal but low fear

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

Normal

VIX 16.4 normal vol for EFA

Gamma Regime

Trending

GEX -$30.8M negative gamma, flip at $100

Flow Regime

Mixed

Mixed flow, no clear direction

Spot vs Max Pain

Spot ~104.2 near MP $104

Thesis duration: Multi-week — Range $100-108 with support from MP and resistance from gamma

Price Range Forecast

Next 1 week

$100.36$108.47

Break below 104 risks 100 gamma flip

Next 2 weeks

$100.94$107.88

Max pain shift to 100 supports range

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $104 (2026-06-18); $100 (2026-06-26); $100 (2026-06-30)

EM guardrails: 1w $100.36/$108.47

Support: $104.00 · $102.00 · $100.00

Resistance: $106.00 · $107.88 · $110.00

Gamma flip: ~$100.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 43,995 (4.2% below spot)

Structural: S: 104,102,100; R:106,107.88,110

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $-30.8M

DEX: +32.1M shares

Gamma flip: ~$100 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 43,995 (4.2% below spot))

NTM gamma: GEX -$30.8M, flip $100. Put OI 44k at 100. Positive delta but negative gamma.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: EFA IV ~16% not rich vs VIX

Term structure: Contango, Jun expiry slight hump

Skew: Put skew elevated, no arb

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium +$52.5M indicates overall buying, but put/call vol ratio 1.27 and OI ratio 2.08 show bearish tilt; mixed flow.

Directional prints: 22.3 call 105 OTM 2026-07-17 — Vol 18271 vs OI 2628 (7x); likely bought; bullish bet on EFA. 57.8 put 82 OTM 2026-08-31 — Vol 500 vs OI 252 (2x); likely bought as downside hedge; bearish skew.

Unusual: 50.6 call 106.5 OTM 2026-06-26 — Vol 1826 vs OI 112 (16x), high IV; lottery-style call buying.

Risks & Catalysts

!Euro macro weakness

!USD strength

!Gamma flip $100

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Put credit spread	Moderate-Weak	Sell 2026-07-02 $97.00/$96.00 put spread Why now: Put/Call ratio bearish but spot near $105; selling put spread at $100 yields premium with defined risk.	Euro macro weakness could break $100; gamma flip risk below $100. Liquidity constraints: short_put: Open interest below 25.; long_put: Volume below 5.
Bear put spread	Weak	Buy 2026-07-10 $104.00/$99.50 put spread Why now: Bearish bias supports buying put spread; use 104/102 strikes to cap risk near $100 support.	If spot holds above $105, spread loses value; theta decay hurts long put. Liquidity constraints: long_put: Wide spread (188%).; short_put: Open interest below 25.

Top Plays

Bear Put Spread

Buy 2026-07-10 $104.00/$99.50 put spread

Bearish play targeting decline to $99.5.

Why this play: Aligns with bearish bias; defined risk.

Debit: $1.09-$1.33

Max loss: $1.33

BE: $102.67

Mgmt: Close above $106. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: long_put: Wide spread (188%).; short_put: Open interest below 25.

Bearish traders.

Put Credit Spread

Sell 2026-07-02 $97.00/$96.00 put spread

Sell put spread at $97 for income.

Why this play: Premium collection above support.

Credit: $0.34-$0.42

Max loss: $0.58

BE: $96.58

Mgmt: Monitor $104 level. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: short_put: Open interest below 25.; long_put: Volume below 5.

Neutral-bearish traders.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFIf EFA breaks below $104.00 support → Buy 2026-07-10 $104.00/$99.50 put spread for $1.09-$1.33

IFIf EFA holds above $104.00 support → Sell 2026-07-02 $97.00/$96.00 put spread for $0.34-$0.42 credit

Exit Triggers

EXITIf EFA closes above $106.00 resistance → Close bear put spread

EXITIf EFA breaks below $100.00 gamma flip → Close put credit spread

Tactical Summary

Neutral-bearish bias, range $100-$108, multi-week consolidation. Key support $104, $102, $100; resistance $106, $107.88. Primary: bear put spread targeting $99.50 on break below $104. Secondary: put credit spread at $97 for income if support holds. Manage invalidation: close bear put above $106, close put credit below $100.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on June 18, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.