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EFA

iShares MSCI EAFE ETFClose $105.02EOD only
Max Pain
$102.00
Next expiry Jun 18, 2026
Expected Move
±$1.38
1.3% from close
Price Gap
-3.02
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
92
High premium
P/C OI
1.78
Slightly put-heavy
Consensus
7.0/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 12, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects EFA options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 12, 2026 close
EFA Directional Report
Analysis based on market close June 12, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Bullish bias sustained by positive gamma ($159M), bullish flow, and spot above max pain. Resistance at $106-$108.97 caps upside near-term; support at $102-$101.06 holds. Expect gradual grind higher within 1w and 2w ranges.

Confidence:
8 / 10
Base 5, +2 GEX/flow aligned, +1 pinning, -1 spot 5% from MP, +1 VIX 18 → net 8, high confidence.
Supports: Positive GEX $159M, Bullish flow, Spot above max pain, VIX normal.
Conflicts: Spot 5% from MP, Gamma flip at $95, Resistance at $106.
🟢Positive Gamma: +$159M GEX pins price near MP
📈Bullish Flow: net call/put premium positive
⚠️Downside gamma flip at $95 (9.5% below spot) is distant

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
Normal
VIX ~18, EFA IV normal, no event pressure.
Gamma Regime
Pinning
GEX +$159.1M positive, flip at $95 (far downside), pinning support near MP.
Flow Regime
Bullish
Bullish net premium, likely call buying and put selling.
Spot vs Max Pain
Above
Spot above $100 max pain (6/12), near 1w guardrails, upward bias.
Thesis duration: Multi-week — Positive gamma and flow support near-term momentum, but resistance levels and distant flip suggest multi-week grind.

Price Range Forecast

Next 1 week
$103.64$106.40
Resistance at $106, support $103.64.
Next 2 weeks
$101.06$108.97
Support $101.06, resistance $108.97.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $100 (2026-06-12); $102 (2026-06-18); $99 (2026-06-26)
EM guardrails: 1w $103.64/$106.40
Support: $102.00 · $101.06 · $100.00
Resistance: $106.00 · $108.97 · $110.00
Gamma flip: ~$95.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 42,710 (9.5% below spot)
Structural: Max pain: $100 (6/12), $102 (6/18), $99 (6/26). 1w guardrails $103.64/$106.40. Key support $102, $101.06; resistance $106, $108.97, $110. Gamma flip ~$95.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+159.1M

DEX: +43.2M shares

Gamma flip: ~$95 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 42,710 (9.5% below spot))

NTM gamma: Dealers long gamma $159.1M (positive gamma), net long 43.2M shares. Gamma flip at ~$95, far below spot, implying pinning near current levels.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: EFA IV near or slightly below VIX, reflecting diversified international exposure. No dislocation.

Term structure: Flat-to-slight contango, no event kinks.

Skew: Put skew elevated but not extreme. No actionable vol structure opportunity.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Call premium dominates ($154.6M), put/call vol ratio 0.36, OI ratio 1.78 (put-heavy OI).

Directional prints: 22.9 call 108 OTM 2026-07-17 — Vol 4988 vs OI 382, likely bought; bullish call buying. 143.7 call 89 ITM 2026-06-18 — Vol 660 vs OI 100, IV 143.7, likely aggressive buying; bullish on vol or ITM. 50.1 put 88 OTM 2027-03-19 — Vol 3001 vs OI 174, likely aggressive put buying; bearish hedge or speculation.

Unusual: 50.1 put 88 OTM 2027-03-19 — Vol/OI 17.2, highest ratio; extreme put activity. 22.9 call 108 OTM 2026-07-17 — Vol/OI 13.1, second highest; heavy OTM call buying. 51.9 call 92 ITM 2026-07-17 — Vol 2500 vs OI 500, vol/OI 5.0; notable volume in near-term call.

Risks & Catalysts

!Downside gamma flip at $95
!Macro risk for international equities
!Resistance at $106 holding
!Spot reversion to max pain $100

Strategy Viability

StrategyEdgeBest SetupPrimary Risk
Put credit spreadModerate
Sell 2026-06-26 $100.00/$85.00 put spread
Why now: Bullish flow and positive gamma favor short put premium.
Break below $101 loses defined credit; resistance caps upside. Liquidity constraints: short_put: Volume below 5.
Bull call spreadModerate-Weak
Buy 2026-07-02 $104.50/$108.00 call spread
Why now: Positive gamma and call flow support upside, resistance caps gain.
Stagnation below long strike loses premium; time decay hurts. Liquidity constraints: long_call: Open interest below 25.; short_call: Open interest below 25.
Bullish risk reversalModerate
Buy 2026-07-17 $106.00 call / sell 2026-07-17 $102.00 put
Why now: Call premium dominates and resistance likely tested; cheap upside.
Sharp drop below put strike creates large loss; short put naked. Liquidity constraints: short_put: Wide spread (123%).
Cash-secured putModerate-Weak
Sell 2026-07-02 $99.00 cash-secured put
Why now: Strong support and bullish bias suggest high probability of earning premium.
Break below $101 leads to stock assignment at loss; opportunity cost if rally. Liquidity constraints: short_put: Wide spread (180%).

Top Plays

#1
Bullish risk reversal
Buy 2026-07-17 $106.00 call / sell 2026-07-17 $102.00 put
Buy call sell put to express bullish bias with zero cost.
Why this play: Best for cheap upside call buying funded by put sale; fits call flow dominance and resistance test.
Debit: $0.21-$0.25
Max loss: $102.00
BE: $102.00
Mgmt: Close near resistance or roll up if break $108. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: short_put: Wide spread (123%).
Aggressive bullish traders
#2
Bull call spread
Buy 2026-07-02 $104.50/$108.00 call spread
Buy call spread to target resistance $108.
Why this play: Defined risk bullish play capitalizing on positive gamma and call flow, with capped upside.
Debit: $0.83-$1.01
Max loss: $1.01
BE: $105.51
Mgmt: Exit at resistance or if spot drops below $102. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: long_call: Open interest below 25.; short_call: Open interest below 25.
Moderate bullish with defined risk
#3
Cash-secured put
Sell 2026-07-02 $99.00 cash-secured put
Sell put to collect premium with high probability.
Why this play: High probability income play leveraging strong support and bullish bias.
Credit: $2.37-$2.90
Max loss: $96.10
BE: $96.10
Mgmt: Roll if spot approaches $102 support. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: short_put: Wide spread (180%).
Income-focused bullish

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers
IFIf EFA maintains above $102 support with bullish bias. → Enter bullish risk reversal: buy 2026-07-17 $106 call, sell $102 put.
IFIf spot holds above $103 (1w guardrail) and call flow continues. → Enter bull call spread: buy 2026-07-02 $104.50/$108 call spread.
Adjustment Triggers
ADJIf EFA reaches $106 resistance and stalls. → Close risk reversal or roll call up to $110.
Exit Triggers
EXITIf spot breaks below $102 support. → Exit all bullish positions including CSP and spreads.

Tactical Summary

Bullish bias sustained with positive gamma. Key support $102, resistance $106. Favor risk reversal and call spread. Manage invalidation below $102.
How to Use These Reports
This directional reflects the market close on June 12, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

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What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.