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CVNA

Carvana Co.Close $65.06EOD only
Max Pain
$67.00
Next expiry Oct 2, 2026
Expected Move
±$3.97
6.1% from close
Price Gap
+1.94
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
43
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
1.08
Balanced positioning
Consensus
6.0/10
Consensus signal
Published snapshot: Sep 25, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects CVNA options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Sep 25, 2026 close
CVNA Theta Report
Analysis based on market close May 13, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from May 13, 2026. A newer theta report is available for June 26, 2026.

View latest report

Theta Verdict

Attractiveness5 / 10
Sizing: Conservative
Primary: Long options
Invalidation: Spot breaks below $60 or above $80
Confidence:
7 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; -1 spot 13.2% from MP; +1 VIX 18

IV Environment

IV Regime
High
IV vs VIX
Avg IV 72.8% vs VIX 17.9, single-stock vol elevated 4x
Favorable?
No

Term structure: Front-end elevated; 2d→9d contango, then mild backwardation

📊High IV: avg 73% implies rich premiums
🔄Term structure slightly backwardated after 9d, favoring shorter dated sells

Pin Risk Assessment

Spot vs MP: Below

GEX regime: Trending ($-20.9M)

Gamma flip: ~$60.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 20,036 (14.2% below spot)

OI concentrations: Call OI wall at $80-$100, put floor $40-$60. Max pain $80 (2d) and $83 (9d).

Verdict: Spot at $72 below max pain; significant OI at $80/$83 increases pin risk around expiry.

Premium Opportunities

#1
Call diagonal
Sell 2026-06-12 $79.00 call / buy 2026-08-21 $72.00 call
Captures premium decay from near-term IV drop.
Debit: $6.30-$7.70
Max loss: $7.70
BE: Path-dependent
Mgmt: Exit if spot breaks $62.08 or after earnings event. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: short_call: Open interest below 25.

Risk Alerts

!Dealer net short gamma (-20.9M) amplifies spot moves
!Spot 13.2% below max pain; potential mean reversion
!High single-stock IV relative to VIX
How to Use These Reports
This theta reflects the market close on May 13, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.